根据ICIS的中国编辑团队的数据，第三季度的剩余供应估计为15 - 35万吨，可能在第四季度增加到45 - 55万吨。
这些估计是基于甲醇的扩张和生产计划，以及主要终端用户的运营计划——煤制烯烃/甲醇制烯烃(CTO / MTO)的操作计划部门，这占中国甲醇消费的45%。
蔡小全 编译自 ICIS
China domestic methanol supply to outpace demand in H2
China’s domestic supply of methanol is expected to exceed demand in the second half of the year, and keep the downward pressure on prices of the material.
Surplus supply is estimated at 150,000-350,000 tonnes in the third quarter, and possibly increase to 450,000-550,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter, according to the China editorial team at ICIS.
The estimates are based on methanol expansion and production plans, as well as operation plans for a major end-user – the coal-to-olefins/methanol-to-olefins (CTO/MTO) sector, which account for 45% of China’s methanol consumption.
This year, the CTO/MTO sector is expected to use up 28.5m tonnes of methanol this year, based on the plants' projected average run rate of 85%.
In the first half of 2017, the sector’s methanol consumption stood at 12.4m tonnes, down by 10% from expectations with a 43% share of China’s total demand for the material, industry sources said.
Notwithstanding the lower-than-expected demand that weighed on methanol prices, about 5m tonnes/year of new capacity is slated to come on stream in the country in the second half of the year.
As of end-2016, China's methanol production capacity stood at 70.1m tonnes but remained a net importer of the material.
It imported a total of 8.8m tonnes of methanol last year, according to official data.
Methanol imports in the first half of this year were at 3.9m tonnes.
On the import front, supply will also get a boost as Iran's new 2m tonne/year plant is due to come on stream in October, and exert pressure on import prices, industry sources said. China is a major export market for Iran's methanol.
Demand, on the other hand, may get a little boost in the second half of the year as some domestic MTO/CTO plants in China are expected to ramp up production or restart operations, while a few start-ups are due late in the year.
But the projected overall consumption growth will not be as strong as the increase in supply.