天然气价格高企将使美国明年产量猛增

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价网站9月13日消息 路透社John Kemp援引能源交易商的话报道称，由于目前供需失衡，天然气产量明年将大幅增加，这已将价格推至创纪录高位。

　　但同时，John Kemp还表示，今年冬季的天然气供应将十分紧张，并补充称，由于预期明年的供应将恢复，亨利中心期货已转向现货溢价，2023年1月交割的合约价格比明年1月交割的合约价格低1.15美元/百万英热单位。据《华尔街日报》报道，亨利中心目前的价格约为5美元/百万英热单位，为一年前的两倍。

　　天然气价格创历史新高

　　《华尔街日报》Jinjoo Lee在最近的一份报告中指出，天然气目前可以采用欧佩克式的协同增产方式。虽然美国天然气价格是一年前的两倍，但亚洲和欧洲的涨幅更大，亚洲达到四倍，欧洲则为五倍，目前已经受到天然气短缺的影响，电价飙升，引发了欧盟部分地区的抗议。

　　供应紧张将成为明年美国天然气产量增加的最大动力之一，尽管按照John Kemp的说法，产量已经开始增加，截至9月初，活跃钻机数量已超过100部，平均日产量为790亿立方米。

　　Canary有限责任公司首席执行官丹·埃伯哈特为《福布斯》报道，去年天然气生产商增加了14亿立方英尺的产量。EIA预计，下半年的平均日产量将从上半年的914亿立方英尺增加到929亿立方英尺。

　　明年出口也将增加，从今年的140亿立方英尺增加到2022年的190亿立方英尺，包括管道和液化天然气出口。

　　王磊 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　High Natural Gas Prices Today Will Send U.S. Production Soaring Next Year

　　Natural gas production is set for a significant increase over the next year thanks to the current imbalance between demand and supply, which has pushed prices to record highs, Reuters’ John Kemp reports, citing energy traders.

　　Meanwhile, however, gas supply for this winter season will be tight, Kemp also said, adding that as a result and in anticipation of next year’s supply recovery, Henry Hub futures had swung into a backwardation, with contracts for delivery in January 2023 round $1.15 per mmBtu lower than contracts for delivery next January. Current Henry Hub prices are around $5 per mmBtu, which is double the price from a year ago, according to the Wall Street Journal.

　　Natural Gas Prices At Record Highs

　　The Journal’s Jinjoo Lee noted in a recent report that natural gas could “really use an OPEC-style, coordinated production ramp-up right now.” While U.S. natural gas prices were double those a year ago, the increase in Asia and Europe was even larger, at four times for Asia and five times for Europe, which is already suffering the consequences of gas shortages, with electricity prices spiking, prompting protests in parts of the EU.

　　It is this tightness of supply that will be one of the biggest motivators for higher U.S. gas production next year, although, per Kemp, the ramp-up in production has already started, with the active rig count topping 100 as of early September and average daily output at 79 billion cu m.

　　Over the last year, gas producers have boosted production by 1.4 billion cu ft, Canary LLC CEO Dan Eberhart reported for Forbes, and the EIA expects the average daily production for the second half of the year will be 92.9 billion cu ft, up from 91.4 billion cu ft during the first half.

　　Exports are also set to rise next year, from 14 billion cu ft this year to 19 billion cu ft in 2022, including pipeline and LNG exports.