欧佩克下调第四季度原油需求预测

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网站9月13日消息 欧佩克周一表示，由于德尔塔病毒感染率的上升给未来的需求前景蒙上了阴影，欧佩克下调了对全球第四季度原油需求的预测。

　　欧佩克在其月度市场报告中称，近几个月全球大部分地区新冠病毒感染率的上升打压了需求拉动型增长预期，本应推动原油市场强劲复苏至明年上半年。

　　10-12月的需求前景越来越不确定，导致欧佩克下调了该期间的预测，但与第三季度强于预期的情况相比，今年的总需求增长为600万桶/日，达到9670万桶/日，与欧佩克上月的预测基本持平。

　　欧佩克大幅提高了对2021年全球需求的预测，将预测值比上月的预测值提高了90万桶/日，达到1.008亿桶/日。

　　德尔塔病例增多引起了人们对未来需求影响的担忧，即使在大部分人口已经接种疫苗的国家也是如此。美国的每日死亡人数已飙升至近1700人，英国部分地区的病例数创下历史最高纪录。

　　欧佩克表示：“新冠病例进一步增加，尤其是考虑到北半球即将到来的冬季，可能会影响目前的增长预测。”

　　“此外，全球供应链持续中断、许多地区主权债务水平不断上升，加上通胀压力和央行应对措施，仍然是需要密切监测的关键因素。”该报告补充道。

　　欧佩克还将今年全球非欧佩克原油供应增长预测下调了17万桶/日，原因是第三季度因飓风艾达破坏北美和墨西哥海上平台火灾而下调50万桶/日。

　　尽管整体看跌，但欧佩克在同意遵守产量逐步提高的计划后，将其2021年自身供应量的估计值上调30万桶/日，至2770万桶/日。欧佩克预计其成员国明年的供应量将增加110万桶/日。

　　欧佩克表示，在第三季度反弹后，全球GDP增长预计将在年底放缓，并指出全球复苏的一个重要因素，尤其是在西方，政府的刺激计划预计不会无限期持续下去。

　　王磊 摘译自 ICIS

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC cuts Q4 crude demand estimates on Delta variant uncertainty

　　OPEC has cut its forecast for global fourth-quarter crude oil demand on the back of the rise in prevalence of the Delta COVID-19 variant clouding the future demand picture, the cartel said on Monday.

　　The rise in COVID-19 infection rates across much of the globe in recent months has dampened demand d growth expectations, pushing a stronger recovery for the crude markets back to the first half of next year, OPEC said in its monthly market report.

　　The increasingly uncertain demand picture for October-December led the organisation to cut its estimates for the period but, set against a stronger than expected third quarter, total demand growth for the year stands at 6m bbl/day to a total of 96.7m bbl/day, largely unchanged from OPEC estimates last month.

　　The organisation significantly hiked its estimates for 2021 global demand, raising forecasts by 900,000 bbl/day compared to last month’s projections, to 100.8m bbl/day.

　　The resurgence in coronavirus cases on the back of the rise of the Delta variant has raised fears over future demand impact even in countries where larger proportions of the population have been vaccinated. Daily deaths in the US have surged to nearly 1,700, while parts of the UK are seeing the highest case numbers on record.

　　"A further rise in COVID-19 infections, especially considering the upcoming winter season in the Northern Hemisphere, could dampen current growth projections,” OPEC said.

　　“In addition, ongoing global supply chain disruptions, rising sovereign debt levels in many regions, together with inflationary pressures and central bank responses, remain key factors that require close monitoring,” it added.

　　The cartel also cut global non-OPEC crude supply growth estimates for the year by 170,000 bbl/day on the back of a 500,000 bbl/day downward adjustment for the third quarter as a result of Hurricane Ida disruption in North America and an offshore platform fire in Mexico.

　　Despite the overall bearishness, OPEC revised estimates for its own supply for 2021 up by 300,000 bbl/day to 27.7m bbl/day after agreeing to keep to a schedule of gradually hiking output. The organisation expect supply from its members to rise 1.1m bbl/day next year.

　　Global GDP growth is expected to slow towards the end of the year after the third-quarter rally, OPEC said, noting that a significant factor in the global recovery, particularly in thee west, has been government stimulus plans that are not expected to continue indefinitely.