IEA：世界必须等到10月份才能获得更多石油供应

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博新闻社2021年9月14日报道，国际能源署（IEA）表示，由于飓风艾达造成的石油产量损失，抵消了欧佩克+增加的石油供应，世界将不得不等到10月份才能获得更多的石油供应。

　　IEA在其最新一期的月度报告中表示，由于欧佩克及其盟友继续恢复闲置产能，石油消费国本应享受到石油产量的“坚实增长”。然而相反，由于意外的供应中断，8月份全球石油供应减少了54万桶/天，9月份全球石油供应预计将持平。

　　总部位于巴黎的为发达经济体提供能源政策建议的IEA表示：“计划外的生产中断暂时停止了始于3月的全球石油供应上升趋势，但10月份将会恢复增长。”

　　由于燃料消费的疲软趋势，供应不足尚未对价格产生重大影响。 IEA表示，自7月份以来，全球石油需求一直在下降，因为不断上升的病例导致亚洲的出行限制。 9月大部分时间，纽约原油交易价格接近每桶70美元。

　　IEA表示，从7月至9月，全球燃料消费量平均每月减少31万桶/天。 然而，有迹象表明，冠状病毒疫情的复苏正在减弱，IEA预计，10月份全球石油需求将大幅反弹，日增160万桶，并持续增长到今年年底。

　　供应和需求的同步变化意味着，今年石油市场的主流趋势——库存减少——将继续有增无减。 据IEA初步估计，发达经济体8月的燃料库存减少3000万桶，比5年平均水平低1.86亿桶。 IEA表示，9月燃料库存应该会再次出现“大规模减少”。

　　IEA在报告中称：“只有到2022年初，全球石油供应才会高到足以补充石油库存。”“与此同时，来自美国的战略石油库存可能会在某种程度上帮助填补缺口。”

　　供应问题

　　8月29日袭击美国墨西哥湾沿岸的四级飓风艾达导致美国每天减产170万桶石油。IEA表示，数周后，美国石油行业仍在努力重启许多受影响的油田，预计该地区本月的原油产量平均将减少65万桶/天。

　　原油供应的总损失可能达到3000万桶，使飓风艾达成为自2005年卡特里娜飓风和丽塔飓风以来对海湾石油工业造成的最严重破坏。 另一场名为“尼古拉斯”的风暴9月14日在德克萨斯州登陆，休斯敦和路易斯安那州部分地区可能引发洪水。

　　虽然大多数欧佩克成员国8月份增产，但少数成员国和几个非欧佩克产油国的产量出现了下降。 由于沙特阿拉伯、伊拉克和俄罗斯的增产未能抵消尼日利亚、哈萨克斯坦和墨西哥减产的影响，8月份欧佩克+原油供应量减少了15万桶/日，至4158万桶/日。

　　IEA表示，欧佩克计划9月再恢复每天40万桶的闲置产能，但包括尼日利亚、安哥拉和马来西亚在内的成员国仍在努力提高产量。

　　李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

　　原文如下：

　　World Must Wait for Extra Oil

　　The world will have to wait until October for additional oil supplies as output losses from Hurricane Ida wipe out increases from OPEC+, the International Energy Agency said.

　　Consumers should have been enjoying “solid gains” in production as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies continued their revival of idle capacity, the agency said in its monthly report. Instead, global supply fell by 540,000 barrels a day in August due to unexpected disruptions and will be flat this month.

　　“Unplanned production outages have temporarily halted an uptrend in world oil supply that began in March, but growth is set to resume in October,” said the Paris-based IEA, which advises developed economies on energy policy.

　　The supply disappointment hasn’t had a big impact on prices because of bearish trends in fuel consumption. Global oil demand has been falling since July as rising Covid-19 cases prompt mobility restrictions in Asia, the IEA said. Crude has traded near $70 a barrel in New York for most of this month.

　　World fuel consumption will contract by 310,000 barrels a day on average each month from July to September, the IEA said. Yet there are signs that the coronavirus resurgence is abating and the agency expects a sharp rebound in demand of 1.6 million barrels a day next month, with continued growth to the end of the year.

　　The matching shifts in supply and demand meant this year’s prevailing oil-market trend -- shrinking inventories -- continued unabated. Fuel stockpiles in developed economies fell by 30 million barrels last month, putting them 186 million barrels below the five-year average, according to preliminary IEA estimates. There should be “hefty draws” again this month, the agency said.

　　“It is only by early 2022 that supply will be high enough to allow oil stocks to be replenished,” according to the report. “In the meantime, strategic oil stocks from the U.S. may go some way to help plug the gap.”

　　Supply Problems

　　Hurricane Ida, a Category 4 storm that hit the U.S. Gulf Coast on Aug. 29, initially shut down 1.7 million barrels a day of oil production. Weeks later, the industry is still struggling to restart many of the affected fields and the region’s crude output is expected to be down as much as 650,000 barrels a day on average this month, the IEA said.

　　The total crude supply loss could amount to 30 million barrels, making Ida the most damaging hurricane to hit the Gulf oil industry since Katrina and Rita in 2005. Another storm, named Nicholas, made landfall in Texas on Tuesday and threatened to unleash flooding in Houston and parts of Louisiana.

　　While most of OPEC boosted output in August, a handful of members plus several allied producers saw production drop. Overall OPEC+ crude supply fell by 150,000 barrels a day to 41.58 million barrels a day in August as increases from Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia failed to offset losses in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Mexico.

　　The group is scheduled to revive another 400,000 barrels a day of idle capacity this month, but members including Nigeria, Angola and Malaysia continue to struggle to boost output, the IEA said.