美银：油价明年6月前有望达到100美元

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2021年9月20日报道，美国著名投资银行高盛公司表示，寒冷的冬季和全球天然气价格飙升可能导致油价到今年年底高于预期，第四季度油价有可能达到每桶85美元。

　　预测油价在今年第4季度将达到每桶80美元的高盛银行的分析师在9月20日路透社刊登的一篇报道中认为，天然气短缺，加上欧洲和亚洲的今年冬天比往常更冷，这可能给第四季度油价预测带来每桶5美元的上行风险。

　　高盛公司分析师写道：“全球天然气供应紧张为今年冬天的石油市场创造了一个明确且可能有意义的看涨催化剂，其影响大于又一波类似德尔塔的新冠疫情对全球石油需求的下行风险。”

　　据这家投资银行称，如果即将到来的冬季北半球比往常更冷，石油需求可能会增加90万桶/天。

　　最近几周，欧洲天然气市场紧张、风速低、天然气库存异常低、碳价格创纪录，这些因素综合在一起，将欧洲大陆的基准天然气价格和最大经济体的电价推至创纪录高位。 创纪录的欧洲天然气价格使亚洲液化天然气(LNG)现货价格也达到了今年同期的最高水平。

　　上周，美国银行全球研究表示，如果今年冬天比往年更冷，未来六个月油价可能会达到每桶100美元，这可能是未来几个月全球能源市场最重要的推动因素。 美国银行认为，由于未来几个月市场将出现温和赤字，油价将上涨。 该银行还认为，如果冬季气温低于正常水平，油价有可能在2022年6月之前达到每桶100美元。

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman: Oil Could Hit $85 In The Fourth Quarter

　　A colder winter and soaring natural gas prices globally could lead to higher-than-expected oil prices at the end of this year, with the potential for oil hitting $85 per barrel in the fourth quarter, Goldman Sachs says.

　　Goldman, which has a price forecast of $80 a barrel oil for the last quarter of 2021, believes that the natural gas crunch combined with a colder-than-usual winter in Europe and Asia could pose an upside risk of $5 a barrel to its Q4 price projection, the bank’s analysts said in a note on Sunday carried by Reuters.

　　“The tightness in global gas supplies creates a clear and potentially meaningful bullish catalyst for the oil market this winter, larger than the downside risk to global oil demand from another Delta-like COVID wave,” the analysts at Goldman Sachs wrote.

　　According to the investment bank, oil demand could jump by 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) if the coming winter is colder than usual in the northern hemisphere.

　　Europe’s tight gas market, low wind speeds, abnormally low gas inventories, and record carbon prices have combined in recent weeks to send benchmark gas prices on the continent and power prices in the largest economies to record highs. Record European natural gas prices are sending Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to record levels for this time of the year, too.

　　Last week, Bank of America Global Research said that oil prices could hit $100 per barrel over the next six months if we have a colder-than-usual winter, which could be the most important driver of global energy markets in the coming months. BofA sees upside for oil prices amid modest market deficits in the next few months. It also sees potential for oil to hit $100 a barrel earlier than its mid-2022 call from June if the winter is colder than normal.