欧佩克警告天然气危机或将造成石油市场动荡

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据世界石油9月22日消息，随着全球天然气短缺对供应商和消费者都造成冲击，欧佩克国家发出了对石油市场的连锁影响的警告。

　　伊拉克石油部长伊赫桑·阿卜杜勒·贾巴尔(Ihsan Abdul Jabbar)周三表示，由于天然气短缺迫使消费者寻找替代燃料，伊拉克预计原油需求将上升。尼日利亚国有石油公司负责人Mele Kyari预计，石油需求可能会增加100万桶/天，未来6个月油价可能会上涨10美元/桶。

　　尽管这两个出口国家都不是中立的观察者，但他们的观点呼应了市场上日益普遍的看法。布伦特原油期货价格已经达到每桶75美元，接近今年的峰值。

　　高盛集团(Goldman Sachs Group Inc.)表示，寒冷的冬季可能会让石油市场无法弥补天然气供应不足的能力，导致油价飙升，对经济造成影响。该银行称，发电和工业用途每天可能需要近200万桶石油。

　　在这种极端情况下，欧佩克及其合作伙伴可能会受益颇丰，因为他们仍有大量原油供应在去年疫情爆发时中断。对伊拉克来说，这可能是一个绝佳的机会。在多年的冲突后，伊拉克正急于实现销售最大化。

　　“如果欧佩克内部达成协议，我们将做好准备。”贾巴尔表示。

　　裘寅 编译自 世界石油

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC warns natural gas crisis may create oil market turbulence

　　As the global natural gas crunch hits suppliers and consumers alike, OPEC nations are warning of the knock-on impact for oil markets.

　　Iraq expects higher demand for crude as the shortfall of gas forces consumers to look for alternative fuels, Oil Minister Ihsan Abdul Jabbar said on Wednesday. The head of Nigeria’s state oil firm, Mele Kyari, predicted that petroleum demand could be boosted by 1 million barrels a day, with prices potentially gaining $10 a barrel over the next six months.

　　While the two exporters are hardly neutral observers of the situation, their views echo thinking that’s increasingly widespread in the market. Brent futures are already at $75 a barrel, approaching this year’s peak.

　　Goldman Sachs Group Inc. says that a cold winter could overwhelm the oil market’s capacity to make up for missing gas supplies, resulting in a price spike with repercussions for the economy. Almost 2 million barrels of oil a day could be needed for a mixture of power generation and industrial purposes, the bank said.

　　In such an extreme scenario, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners could benefit handsomely, as they still have plenty of crude supplies shuttered when the pandemic struck last year. It could be a particularly golden opportunity for Baghdad, which is eager to maximize sales after being hobbled by years of conflict.

　　“If there is agreement within OPEC, we will be ready,” Iraq’s Jabbar said.