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全球石油需求2050年以后仍将继续增加

2021-09-24 来源: 中国石化新闻网
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  中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2021年9月20日报道,能源市场专家阿纳斯·阿尔哈吉最近在尼日利亚举办的一次能源会议上表示,即使在2050年以后,全球石油需求仍将继续增加,这是因为可再生能源届时无法完全取代化石燃料。

  阿尔哈吉在发表主题演讲时表示:“气候变化政策对石油需求的影响被高度夸张——气候变化政策主要是对需求增长的影响,而不是对需求本身的影响。”

  这位能源专家说,即使在30年以后,世界仍将需要所有的能源。 阿尔哈吉指出,虽然技术将是能源转型的关键因素,但它也有其局限性。

  他说,“非洲国家可以通过关注能源效率和唾手可得的果实来减少碳足迹,节省石油和天然气用于出口或增值工业,并战略性地部署太阳能和风能项目。”

  许多业内分析师和预测人士预计,全球石油需求将在本世纪30年代或更早的某个时候见顶。

  去年,就连欧佩克也制定了石油需求见顶的时间表。 在其去年10月发布的《2020年世界石油展望》报告中,欧佩克表示,预计全球石油需求将在2022年超过疫情前的水平,并稳步增长,直到本世纪30年代末,那时石油需求将开始趋于平稳,这是欧佩克对石油需求达到峰值的时间安排的重大转变。

  今年,能源转型和应对气候变化比去年危机期间更成为热门话题。 分析人士和预测人士正试图理解和预测,世界石油需求依然巨大,如何才能与许多国家已经设定的2050年净零目标相协调。

  全球一次性能源需求在未来只会增长。

  更高的能源消耗需要更大的努力来实现净零排放,特别是考虑到即使是激增的可再生能源产能也无法满足不断增长的电力需求。 这是国际能源署(IEA)的一份评估报告,该机构在5月份的一份令人震惊的报告中指出,2050年净零排放将在2021年以后不需要任何新的石油、天然气和煤炭投资。

  李峻 编译自 油价网

  原文如下:

  Oil Demand Set To Grow Even After 2050, Energy Expert Says

  Even after 2050, global oil demand is set to continue to rise because renewables cannot entirely replace fossil fuels, energy markets expert Anas Alhajji said during a recent energy conference hosted by Nigeria.

  “The impact of climate change policies on oil demand are highly exaggerated – The impact is mostly on demand growth, not on demand itself,” Alhajji said

  The world will need all energy sources even in three decades, the expert said. While technology will be a key enabler of the energy transition, it has its limits, Alhajji noted.

  “African countries can reduce their carbon footprint by focusing on energy efficiency and the low hanging fruits, save oil & gas for exports or value added industries and place solar and wind projects strategically.”

  Many analysts and forecasters expect global oil demand to peak at some point in the 2030s, or even earlier.

  Last year, even OPEC put a timeline to peak oil demand. In its World Oil Outlook 2020 in October, OPEC said it expects global oil demand to exceed the pre-pandemic levels in 2022 and grow steadily until the late 2030s, when it will begin to plateau, in a major shift in its forecast that put a timeline to peak oil demand.

  This year, the energy transition and the fight against climate change have become even more topical than during last year’s crisis. Analysts and forecasters are trying to understand and predict how the world’s still significant need of oil would reconcile with the net-zero targets that many countries have already set for 2050.

  Global primary energy demand is set to only grow in the future.

  This higher energy consumption will need greater efforts to reach net-zero emissions, especially considering the fact even surging renewables capacity is unable to meet rising electricity demand. That’s an assessment of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which suggested in the bombshell report in May that net-zero 2050 wouldn’t need any new oil, gas, and coal investments after 2021.

 
 
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