欧洲能源危机即将波及全球

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2021年9月22日报道，欧洲能源危机即将波及全球，这只是一个时间问题，真的。 在一个全球化的世界里，能源短缺不可能在区域内持续很长时间，特别是在供应链受损和急于削减化石燃料投资的背景下。 9月初在欧洲开始的能源危机现在可能正在向美国蔓延。 目前，由于经济活动的复苏推高了电力需求，作为世界上最大天然气生产国之一，美国的天然气出口商已经从来自亚洲和欧洲需求的强劲增加中受益。 据《金融时报》最近的一篇报道，亚洲和欧洲的买家对美国的液化天然气（LNG）货物展开了一场名副其实的抢购战——而亚洲正在获胜。

　　煤炭出口也在增长，而且已经持续了一段时间。但阿格斯9月早些时候报告称，煤炭供应正在收紧。 根据这份报告，美国7月份的焦煤出口比6月份下降了20.3%。报告还指出，由于生产商获得资金的渠道有限，以及疫情期间困扰许多行业的劳动力短缺，煤炭供应受到了限制。

　　所有这些对美国的化石燃料生产商来说应该是一个好消息。 但随着冬天的临近，这很可能成为一个坏消息。 《华尔街日报》记者Jinjoo Lee本周早些时候写道，高能源价格可能是美国下一个热门进口商品。 Lee引用的数据显示，天然气库存补充速度低于本季度的平均水平，9月初的天然气库存比5年平均水平低了7.4%。

　　由于出口走强，煤炭库存也在减少，动力煤的价格比一年前上涨了3倍。 根据《华尔街日报》报道援引的美国能源信息署(EIA)的计算，到今年年底，美国的煤炭库存可能会降至去年水平的一半以下。 去年，由于疫情，能源需求下降。 今年，美国经济再次全速前进。

　　难怪电价已经在上涨。

　　在某种程度上说，欧洲发生的事件可以被视为美国可能发生的事情的预告片。 这是一个预告片，因为它展示了所有最糟糕的部分。 美国在能源上比英国更独立，这是一个很大的优势。 然而，出口带来了收入，这需要美国政府干预，以迫使天然气生产商削减出口。

　　上周，美国的一个制造业组织要求政府进行此类干预，这一举动令人担忧。 路透社周五报道，代表化工、食品和材料生产企业的美国工业能源消费者组织要求美国能源部限制LNG的出口，以避免价格飙升和冬季国内天然气短缺。

　　对于LNG出口的增加是否真的伤害了美国消费者，人们的看法似乎存在分歧。 但事实是，美国现今的汽油价格已经是一年前的两倍。 然而，根据IECA的说法，它们还没有高到足以推动天然气产量的增加。 因此，为了储存足够的天然气过冬，美国政府必须强制减少LNG出口。

　　当然，美国LNG行业反对这种做法。LNG中心执行董事告诉路透社，大多数LNG出口是根据长期固定价格合同运输的，与基准天然气价格及其走势无关。 然而，一些LNG货物是在现货市场上出售的。

　　路透社援引IECA总裁Paul Cicio的话报道说：“与美国消费者竞争天然气的LNG买家是国有企业和外国政府控制的公用事业公司，成本会自动转嫁。”“美国制造商无法在价格上与他们竞争。”

　　不管基本情况如何发展，交易商已经变得紧张不安，这可能会加剧价格的不确定性。再说，欧洲目前处于不确定性的核心——更确切地说，价格有攀升的更高空间。 但现在，亚洲增加了对天然气供应和潜在短缺的担忧。

　　欧洲能源危机正在蔓延至世界其他地区。推卸责任的行为已经开始，罪魁祸首包括多年来对当地天然气生产的投资不足，以及俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司让北溪-2管道获得德国批准的计划。 据《华尔街日报》Lee引述加拿大皇家银行大宗商品策略师Christopher Louney的话报道说，目前仍不清楚天然气价格飙升有多少是供需差距造成的，又有多少是市场紧张情绪造成的。 然而，这个问题没有另外一个问题那么重要——而且是一个可怕的问题：这个冬天会有多糟糕呢?

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　The European Energy Crisis Is About To Go Global

　　It was only a matter of time, really. In a globalized world, energy crunches can hardly remain regionally contained for very long, especially in a context of damaged supply chains and a rush to cut investment in fossil fuels. The energy crunch that began in Europe earlier this month may now be on its way to America. For now, all is well with one of the world's top gas producers. U.S. gas exporters have enjoyed a solid increase in demand from Asia and Europe as the recovery in economic activity pushed demand for electricity higher. According to a recent Financial Times report, there is a veritable bidding war for U.S. cargos of liquefied natural gas between Asian and European buyers—and the Asians are winning.

　　Coal exports are on the rise, too, and have been for a while now, especially after a political spat had China shun Australian coal. But supply is tightening, Argus reported earlier this month. In July, according to the report, U.S. coking coal exports dropped by as much as 20.3 percent from June. The report noted supply was constrained by producers' limited access to funding and a labor shortage that has plagued many industries amid the pandemic.

　　All this should be good news for U.S. producers of fossil fuels. But it may easily become bad news as winter approaches. The Wall Street Journal's Jinjoo Lee wrote earlier this week high energy prices could be the next hot import for the United States. Lee cited data showing gas inventory replenishment was running below average rates for this season, and gas in storage in early September was 7.4 percent below the five-year average.

　　Coal inventories are also running low because of stronger exports, with prices for thermal coal three times higher than they were a year ago. According to calculations from the Energy Information Administration cited in the WSJ report, coal inventories in the United States could fall to less than half last year's inventory levels by the end of the year. Last year, energy demand was depressed because of the pandemic. This year, the U.S. economy is firing on all cylinders once again.

　　No wonder electricity prices are already going up.

　　In a way, the events in Europe could be seen as a trailer of what might happen in the United States. It is a trailer because it shows all the worst bits. The United States is much more energy independent than, say, the UK, and that's a big plus. Yet exports bring in revenues, and it would require government intervention to make gas producers cut exports.

　　In an alarming move, such intervention was requested last week by a manufacturing industry group. Industrial Energy Consumers of America, an organization representing companies producing chemicals, food, and materials, asked the Department of Energy to institute limits on the exports of liquefied natural gas in order to avoid soaring prices and gas shortages during the winter, Reuters reported on Friday.

　　Opinions seem to differ on whether rising LNG exports are in fact hurting U.S. consumers. But the fact is that gas prices are already double what they were a year ago. According to the IECA, they are not, however, high enough to motivate a ramp-up in natural gas production. Therefore, in order to stockpile enough gas for the winter, the U.S. government must force a reduction in exports.

　　The LNG industry is, of course, against this. The executive director of Center for Liquefied Natural Gas told Reuters most LNG exports are shipped under long-term fixed-price contracts that have no relation to benchmark gas prices and their movements. Yet some cargos are sold on the spot market.

　　"Buyers of LNG who compete for natural gas with U.S. consumers are state-owned enterprises and foreign government-controlled utilities with automatic cost pass through," Paul Cicio, president of IECA, said, as quoted by Reuters. "U.S. manufacturers cannot compete with them on prices."

　　Traders are already getting jittery, and this will likely contribute to price uncertainty; regardless of how the fundamentals situation develops. Again, Europe is at the heart of the uncertainty - or rather the certainty that prices have higher to climb. But now, Asia has added to concern about gas supply and the potential for shortages.

　　The European energy crunch is spilling over into other regions. The blame game has begun with culprits ranging from years of underinvestment in local gas production to a Gazprom scheme to get Nord Stream 2 approved by Germany. For now, it is still unclear how much of the price surge is due to a gap between demand and supply and how much of it is due to market nervousness, at least according to RBC commodity strategist Christopher Louney, as quoted by the WSJ's Lee. This question is less important than another, however, and it is a scary one:

　　Just how bad could things get this winter?