维多预计油价年底将突破每桶80美元

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网报道，世界最大的石油贸易商维多集团首席执行官罗素•哈迪9月24日在接受彭博社记者采访时表示，到今年年底，原油价格可能会升至每桶80美元，甚至更高。

　　据哈迪称，天然气供应短缺将刺激对替代能源的需求，使第四季度全球原油日需求量增加50万桶。 这位高管还说，这反过来可能会促使欧佩克+提高供应。

　　哈迪说：“需求会不会因为电力转换而出现意外上升?这是肯定的。”他说：“天然气定价会不会导致全球每天额外增加50万桶原油的需求? 或许我们的观点是，这可能会贯穿整个冬天。”

　　哈迪还告诉彭博社记者：“所有人担心的是，我们失去了一些正常情况下的库存。”“在冬季，对天然气的需求远远高于夏季。 你必须增加库存，没有其他选择。”

　　然而，现在欧洲的天然气储备似乎很短缺，而需求仍然很高，转向另一种燃料是最合理的路径，因为由于天气原因，太阳能和风能的需求严重不足。

　　在哈迪发表上述评论之前，数家银行对油价又做出了几项看涨预测。 高盛公司23日表示，如果今年冬天的天气证明是寒冷而非温和，布伦特原油价格可能达到每桶90美元。 高盛公司大宗商品部门主管Jeffrey Currie表示，如果油价下跌，则可能导致全球原油日需求量增加90万桶。

　　此外，据维多集团同行托克集团称，油价明年也将继续上涨。 这家大宗商品交易巨头的首席经济学家Saad Rahim表示，在全球需求持续复苏的推动下，布伦特原油价格可能会在2022年底跃升至100美元。

　　Rahim在周四举行的亚太原油论坛(Argus Asia-Pacific Crude Forum)上表示：“不仅是价格，我们看到的现货溢价水平也告诉我们，市场对原油非常渴望。”

　　Rahim说，今年全球的原油需求已经从冠状病毒疫情及其变种中恢复了足够多，已使石油市场处于一个“更加健康的位置”。

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　World's Largest Oil Trader Sees Oil Topping $80 By Year-End

　　Crude oil prices could rise to $80 per barrel by the end of this year and even top it, Vitol Group’s chief executive Russell Hardy told Bloomberg in an interview.

　　According to Hardy, the gas supply crunch will spur demand for alternatives, lifting crude oil demand up by an additional half a million barrels daily in the fourth quarter. This, in turn, could motivate a higher supply increase on the part of OPEC+, the executive also said.

　　“Can demand surprise us to the upside because of power switching? Yes,” Vitol’s CEO said. “Is it likely that there’s half a million barrels a day of extra demand that comes through because of gas pricing? Probably our view is, that is likely across winter.”

　　“All people are worried about is that we’re missing pieces of stock which we normally have,” he also told Bloomberg. “During the winter, demand for gas is massively higher than demand for gas during the summer. You have to store, there’s no two ways around it.”

　　Yet now that Europe’s stored gas appears to be short while demand remains high, a switch to another fuel is the most logical path as solar and wind fall short of demand due to the weather.

　　Hardy’s comments come on the heels of another couple of bullish predictions for the price of oil. Goldman Sachs yesterday said that Brent crude could reach $90 per barrel this winter if it turns out to be a cold rather than a mild one. If it is a cold one, it could lead to 900,000 bpd in additional crude demand, Goldman’s head of commodities, Jeffrey Currie, said.

　　According to Vitol peer Trafigura, furthermore, oil is set to continue rising next year as well. The chief economist of the commodity trading major said that Brent could jump to $100 by the end of 2022, driven by the continued recovery in global demand.

　　“Not just the price, but the level of backwardation we are seeing is telling us the market is hungry for oil,” Saad Rahim said during the virtual Argus Asia-Pacific Crude Forum on Thursday.

　　Oil demand worldwide has recovered enough from the coronavirus and the variants this year to put the oil market in a “much healthier place,” Rahim said.