高盛预测油价年底前将触及每桶90美元

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社9月27日报道，在德尔塔病毒影响下，原油仍逐渐复苏，燃料需求增长速度加快，加上飓风“艾达”(Ida)对产量的打击，导致全球供应紧张，高盛(Goldman Sachs)将年底布伦特原油价格预估从每桶80美元上调至每桶90美元。

　　布伦特原油期货价格上周触及近3年高点，原因是，全球生产中断迫使能源企业从库存中大量提取原油。截至周一格林尼治时间06：19，布伦特原油价格为每桶79.19美元，美国西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)价格为每桶75.08美元。

　　高盛在一份报告中称，“虽然我们一直持石油看涨的预期,但当前全球供应缺口比我们原先想的要大,在疫情影响下的全球需求复苏速度甚至超过我们周五的预期,全球供应也低于我们的预期”。

　　本月初，欧佩克+及其盟友同意坚持7月份做出的决定，逐步取消创纪录的减产。高盛表示，飓风“艾达”对供应的冲击抵消了欧佩克+自7月份以来增产的影响，而非欧佩克+和非页岩油产量继续令人失望。

　　本月初，席卷美国墨西哥湾的飓风“艾达”和“尼古拉斯”损坏了钻井平台、输油管道和原油加工中心，导致大部分近海生产中断数周。

　　在需求方面，高盛表示，由于全球天然气短缺将增加燃油发电，冬季的价格上行风险"明显"偏高。不过，高盛指出，一种潜在的新变异毒株可能会对需求造成压力，而欧佩克+产量的大幅加快可能会缓解预期的供应赤字，这是影响石油市场乐观前景的关键风险。

　　高盛将2022年第二季度和第四季度的平均预期从85美元/桶下调至80美元/桶。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 路透社

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman expects oil prices to hit $90 by year-end as supply tightens

　　Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for year-end Brent crude oil prices to $90 per barrel from $80, as a faster fuel demand recovery from Delta variant and Hurricane Ida's hit to production led to tight global supplies.

　　Brent futures hit a near three-year high last week as global output disruptions have forced energy companies to pull large amounts of crude out of inventories.

　　Oil prices were trading at $79.19 a barrel, as of 0619 GMT on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude were at $75.08 a barrel.

　　"While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above-consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our below consensus forecasts," Goldman said in a note dated Sept. 26.

　　Earlier this month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, a group known as OPEC+, agreed to stick to its decision made in July to phase out record output cuts.

　　Hurricane Ida's hit to supply has more than offset OPEC+'s production ramp-up since July with non-OPEC+ and non-shale production continuing to disappoint, Goldman said.

　　Hurricane Ida and Nicholas, which swept through the U.S. Gulf of Mexico earlier this month, damaged platforms, pipelines and processing hubs, shutting most offshore production for weeks.

　　On the demand side, Goldman said risks were "squarely" skewed to the upside in the winter, as a global gas shortage will increase oil-fired power generation.

　　Goldman, however, flagged a potential new virus variant, which could weigh on demand and an aggressively faster ramp-up in OPEC+ production that may soften its projected deficit, as key risks to its bullish outlook.

　　For 2022, the bank lowered its average forecasts for the second and fourth quarter to $80/bbl from $85/bbl.