大宗商品巨头托克看涨石油和天然气前景

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博新闻社2021年9月27日报道，全球最大的大宗商品交易公司之一的托克集团(Trafigura Group)表示，由于供应难以跟上快速增长的需求，今年冬季及以后，全球将面临更高的石油和天然气价格。

　　托克集团石油交易联合主管本·勒科克在一次采访中表示：“我们将看到油价走高。”

　　勒科克说，由于交易商还没有意识到供求平衡在一段时间内仍将保持紧张，市场对未来几年的远期石油合约定价有误。

　　他说：“延期交割的原油价格，尤其是2022年12月和2023年交割的原油价格很便宜。”2022年12月交货的布伦特原油目前的价格约为每桶70美元，但勒科克表示，如果届时布伦特原油价格升至每桶100美元左右，他也不会感到意外。

　　他表示：“未来两年，我只能看到价格上涨。”

　　9月26日，立即发货的布伦特原油价格飙升至每桶80美元，创下近三年来的最高价格。

　　托克集团是全球第二大独立石油贸易商，仅次于行业领军企业维多集团(Vitol Group)，这让托克集团拥有对全球能源流动的独特视角。

　　在天然气方面，勒科克表示，如果寒冷天气迫使欧洲和亚洲的需求上升，今年冬天天然气价格可能会大幅飙升。

　　这一看涨前景正值石油需求迅速恢复至疫情前水平之际，多数交易商预计，到2022年初至中期，石油消费量将达到2019年的水平。 随着需求反弹，供应难以跟上：美国页岩公司一直在限制支出，更愿意向股东支付股息。 由于美国页岩对油价上涨反应缓慢，欧佩克+得以保持对市场的控制。

　　“美国页岩行业表现出很强的纪律性。 油价大约是一年前的两倍，尽管如此，我们并没有看到钻井量的大幅增加。”勒科克如是说。

　　勒科克表示，尽管天然气交易价格已经创历史新高，但今年冬天欧洲天然气价格很难下降。

　　他说：“如果欧洲或亚洲今年的冬天很冷，我们就有大麻烦了。如果天气很冷，头顶又没有风，那么我们的问题就大得多。我们将面临电力严重短缺。”

　　欧洲天然气价格已飙升至每百万英热单位25美元以上，比2010-2020年的平均水平高出400%以上，而且明显高于美国，后者的天然气交易价格约为每百万英热单位5美元。在亚洲，液化天然气最近以每百万英热27美元左右的价格易手，创下了季节性高点。

　　勒科克说，“如果天气正常，价格可能会下降一点；如果天气不好，价格会涨得更高。”

　　李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社

　　原文如下：

　　Commodity Giant Paints Bullish Oil and Gas Outlook

　　The world faces higher oil and gas prices this winter and beyond as supply struggles to catch up with fast-rising demand, according to Trafigura Group, one of the world’s largest commodity trading houses.

　　“We’re going to see higher oil prices,” Ben Luckock, Trafigura’s co-head of oil trading said in an interview.

　　Luckock said the market was mis-pricing forward oil contracts for the next couple of years because traders hadn’t yet woken up to the fact the supply-demand balance will remain tight for some time.

　　“Deferred crude, particularly for December 2022 and 2023, is cheap,” he said. Brent crude for delivery in December 2022 is currently changing hands at around $70 a barrel, but Luckock said it wouldn’t be surprised if Brent has risen to about $100 a barrel by then.

　　“I struggle to see anything but higher prices going forward in the next two years,” he said.

　　On Monday, Brent crude for immediate delivery surged toward $80 a barrel, setting its highest price in nearly three years.

　　Trafigura is the world’s second-largest independent oil trader, behind industry leader Vitol Group, giving the company a privileged view of global energy flows.

　　On natural gas, he said prices could shoot up sharply this winter if cold weather forces demand higher in Europe and Asia.

　　The bullish outlook comes as oil demand fast recovers toward its pre-pandemic level, with most traders expecting that consumption will reach the 2019 by early-to-mid 2022. As demand rebounds, supply has struggled to keep up: U.S. shale companies have kept a lid on spending, preferring to pay dividends to shareholders. With U.S. shale reacting slowly to higher prices, the OPEC+ oil cartel has been able to keep control of the market.

　　“The U.S. shale industry is showing very strong discipline. Oil prices are roughly double what they were a year ago and despite that we’re not seeing a huge increase in drilling,” Luckock said.

　　Luckock said that it was difficult to see lower natural gas prices this winter in Europe, despite the commodity trading at a record high already.

　　“If it’s a cold winter in Europe or Asia, we have a big problem,” he said. “If it’s cold, and on top, it isn’t windy, then we have a much bigger problem. We will face shortages.”

　　Natural gas prices in Europe have surged past $25 per million British thermal unit, more than 400% higher than the 2010-2020 average, and significantly higher than in the U.S., where the commodity trades at around $5 per million Btu. In Asia, liquefied natural gas has recently changed hands at around $27 per million Btu, a seasonal record high.

　　“If the weather is normal, prices could drop a bit lower; if the weather is bad, prices will rise a lot higher,” Luckock said.