道达尔认为石油需求将在2030年前达到峰值

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据离岸工程网站9月28日消息 TotalEnergies周一预测，全球石油需求预计将在2030年前达到峰值，比此前预测的要早。

　　这家法国石油巨头此前预测峰值将出现在2030年左右，而不是之前。该公司表示，其业务目前的假设是，全球消费将在本世纪末之前开始下降。

　　TotalEnergies在其《年度能源展望》中表示，到2050年，石油需求将降至4000万或6400万桶/天，这取决于政策和习惯改变的力度。

　　根据国际能源机构的数据，在新冠疫情重创经济活动之前，2019年全球每天消耗9970万桶石油。

　　TotalEnergies表示，尽管如此，天然气将继续作为过渡燃料发挥作用，特别是在采用碳捕获和甲烷排放控制技术的情况下。

　　这家总部位于巴黎的集团还表示，预计到2050年，发电量将增加一倍以上，风能和太阳能占增长的85%以上。

　　生产商和贸易商在周一的一次行业会议上表示，随着经济复苏，全球石油需求预计将在明年初达到疫情前的水平，尽管闲置的炼油产能可能会影响前景。

　　吴恒磊 编译自 离岸工程

　　原文如下：

　　Norway's August Oil Output Beats Forecast, Gas Lags

　　Global oil demand is expected to peak before 2030, earlier than previously projected, TotalEnergies forecast on Monday.

　　The French oil major - which had previously forecast the peak happening around 2030, rather than before - said its business was now working on the assumption that global consumption would start declining before the end of the decade.

　　Oil demand would drop to 40 or 64 million barrels per day by 2050, depending on how strongly policies and habits change, TotalEnergies said in it annual energy outlook.

　　The world consumed 99.7 million barrels per day of oil in 2019, according to the International Energy Agency, before the COVID-19 pandemic hammered economic activities.

　　TotalEnergies said, though, that natural gas would continue to play a role as a transition fuel, particularly when accompanied by carbon capture and methane emissions control techniques, it said.

　　The Paris-based group also said it expected power generation to more than double by 2050, with wind and solar energy accounting for more than 85% of the increase.

　　Producers and traders said at an industry conference on Monday that global oil demand was expected to reach pre-pandemic levels by early next year as the economy recovers, although spare refining capacity could weigh on the outlook.