机构态度：如何把握石油和天然气牛市

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价9月29日报道，高盛集团表示，布伦特原油价格创下2018年10月以来新高，预计这一涨势将持续。高盛分析师Neil Mehta推荐康菲石油和埃克森美孚作为在油价中扮演新助推力的最佳选择。都铎·皮克林（Tudor Pickering）认为切萨皮克能源公司（Chesapeake Energy）是一家值得买入的公司，表示该公司仍然是少数几个相对未被对冲的生产商之一。

　　在经历了一段反复波动的时期后，油价再次大幅反弹，继续打破多年来的高点。看涨情绪已经占据了石油市场，布伦特原油突破每桶80美元，达到2018年10月以来的最高水平，而WTI在周二的盘中交易中报价为75.64美元/桶。结算金额为7月以来最高，因美国参议院通过关键的1万亿美元基础设施支出法案后，整体风险偏好回归市场。

　　然而，和其他行业一样，华尔街对油价前景的看法也存在很大的分歧，既强烈看涨油价将升至更高的高点，也强烈看跌油价将大幅回落。

　　好消息是，华尔街对油价走势仍持乐观态度

　　高盛成为最新一个持相当坚定看涨观点的投资者，其表示，“布伦特原油价格已经达到2018年10月以来的新高，我们预计这种反弹将继续，年底的布伦特原油价格预测为90美元/桶，而之前的预测为80美元/桶。虽然我们一直看好石油市场，但目前全球石油供需缺口大于我们的预期，全球需求从德尔塔病毒的影响中复苏的速度甚至快于我们的上述共识，而全球供应仍低于我们的一致预期。”

　　高盛进一步指出，“飓风艾达抵消了欧佩克+自7月以来增产的影响，而非欧佩克+非页岩产量继续令人失望。迄今为止，现有疫苗已证明对德尔塔变种有效，导致住院率降低，并允许更多国家重新开放，特别是在重视疫情的亚洲国家。与此同时，由于全球天然气短缺的影响，冬季需求仍呈上升趋势。高盛预测，最近450万桶/天的库存是有记录以来的最高水平，不太可能在未来几个月逆转，这将使石油库存降至2013年以来的最低水平”。

　　高盛并不是唯一一家看涨石油价格的公司。

　　早在6月份，美国银行(Bank of America)的一位分析师就曾预测油价可能会升至每桶100美元，当时引起了轩然大波。

　　美国银行大宗商品策略师弗朗西斯科·布兰奇(Francisco Blanch)表示，随着全球开始面临严重的石油供应危机，他认为2022年油价有可能达到每桶100美元。“首先，在18个月的封锁之后，有大量被压抑的流动性需求。其次，公共交通将滞后，在很长一段时间内增加私家车的使用。第三，疫情爆发前的研究表明，随着在家工作变成出行工作，更多的远程工作可能会导致驾驶里程增加。

　　在供应方面，我们预计美国和世界各地的政府将在未来几个季度抑制资本支出，以实现巴黎协议的目标。其次，出于财务和ESG的原因，投资者越来越反对能源部门的支出。第三，限制碳排放的司法压力正在上升。简而言之，需求有望反弹，而供应可能无法完全跟上，这将使欧佩克在2022年控制石油市场”。

　　与此同时，瑞银(UBS)仍持顺周期倾向，预计利率将进一步攀升。瑞银集团表示，由于强劲的复苏趋势，它更青睐能源股、非必需消费品股、金融股和工业股。

　　总体而言，瑞银对经济增长和企业利润的预期保持不变，其固定收益团队预计利率将逆转，10年期美国国债收益率将在今年年底前升至2%。因此，瑞银认为周期性板块近期表现不佳是暂时的。

　　如何应对油价上涨

　　在这个节骨眼上，可以肯定地说，华尔街肯定看好油价前景。

　　高盛分析师Neil Mehta推荐康菲石油和埃克森美孚作为在油价中扮演新角色的最佳选择。

　　康菲石油将以股息/回购的形式将30%-40%的现金流返还给股东，这已经证明了该公司在并购执行方面的核心竞争力，比许多勘探和生产公司提供了更好的地域多元化，但有着比美国大型石油公司更高的石油杠杆率。此外，该股在2022年的自由现金流收益率是各大公司中最高的，EV/DACF倍数是最低的。

　　埃克森美孚是分析师们最不一致的评级之一，鉴于近年来低于标普指数的每股意外收益率，大多数投资者都担心该公司盈利执行的可持续性以及与美国同行的估值溢价。然而，强大的资产基础和历史交易模式证明估值溢价是合理的，该公司未来盈利还将继续保持良好势头。

　　康菲石油和埃克森美孚的股价分别上涨了66.8%和43.9%。

　　天然气超级拉力赛

　　现在这场能源牛市的最大亮点，即天然气价格的大幅上涨。

　　天然气价格已达到2014年以来的最高水平，超过了石油和许多其他大宗商品的价格。周二，天然气期货交易价格上涨5.2%，至6.13美元/百万英热，创下2014年1月以来的最高结算价格。天然气价格今年迄今上涨了125%，而最大的天然气基准，美国单位天然气ETF, LP在此期间上涨了121%。全球其他主要天然气市场的价格冲击更大，东亚基准天然气期货和欧洲天然气现货价格已上涨4-5倍，至19美元/百万英热单位。

　　但也有分析认为，目前的涨势还远未结束。

　　Argus Media的分析师斯坦•布劳内尔(Stan Brownell)和标普全球分析师卢克•杰克逊(Luke Jackson)认为，Henry Hub的天然气价格必须升至10美元或以上，才能刺激国内天然气需求。这意味着天然气价格将比目前水平上涨近一倍，达到2008年的水平，要知道当时美国的天然气产量减少了约40%。

　　国际天然气需求正在迅速增长

　　为了在初冬前赶上五年平均储量水平，美国天然气生产商从现在开始每周需要注入约904亿立方英尺的天然气，比五年平均每周增加的速度高出约40%。美国能源信息署(EIA)的最新数据显示，天然气库存上周攀升了520亿立方英尺，远低于为冬季建立足够库存所需的水平。

　　有趣的是，分析师们指出，美国消费并不是强劲价格走势背后的真正驱动力。事实上，根据EIA的数据，截至今年6月，美国国内天然气消费量与2020年水平一致。

　　真正的罪魁祸首是强劲的国际天然气需求和快速发展的美国液化天然气行业。

　　今年上半年，美国出口了约10%的天然气，较上年同期增长41%。正常情况下，夏季生产的过剩天然气会被储存在地下。但国内库存一直低于正常水平，生产商将其中大部分作为液化天然气出口。

　　亚洲和欧洲仍然需要储备更多物资，为冬天做准备，其大部分供应将不得不来自美国。液化天然气出口大多因维修相关的生产阻滞而下滑。例如，欧洲最重要的天然气供应国俄罗斯一直在放缓天然气供应。欧洲目前的天然气库存比5年平均水平低了16%，9月份更是创历史新低。与此同时，包括澳大利亚、马来西亚、尼日利亚、阿尔及利亚、挪威和特立尼达和多巴哥在内的几个国家的液化天然气出口设施不断发生计划外中断，导致对美国液化天然气的需求增加。

　　欧洲的天然气现货价格历来低于亚洲，然而，今年欧洲的天然气价格正更密切地跟踪亚洲的现货液化天然气价格，以吸引世界各地灵活的液化天然气供应，以补充库存。

　　美国的严冬可能导致国内市场不得不与饥渴的亚洲和欧洲买家竞争，从而推高价格。值得注意的是，美国的严冬很容易导致天然气价格出现更疯狂的飙升。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　How To Play The Oil And Gas Bull Run

　　Goldman Sachs: Brent oil prices have reached new highs since October 2018, and we forecast that this rally will continue

　　Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta has recommended ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) as the best options to play the new gusher in oil prices

　　Tudor Pickering rates Chesapeake Energy (NYSE:CHK) a Buy, saying the company remains one of the few producers that remain relatively unhedged

　　After a volatile period of reversals and re-reversals, the oil price rally is back with a bang as oil prices continue taking out multi-year highs. Bullish sentiment has taken over oil markets, with Brent breaking out above $80 for its best level since October 2018 while WTI was quoted at $75.64/bbl on Tuesday intraday trading, scoring the highest settlement since July thanks to an overall risk-on theme returning to the markets after the Senate passed the crucial $1 trillion infrastructure spending bill.

　　However, as with every other sector, there's a pretty big dichotomy in Wall Street regarding the oil price outlook, with both strongly bullish forecasts for even higher highs as well as strongly bearish views predicting a sharp oil price pullback.

　　The good news: Wall Street remains largely bullish about the oil price trajectory.

　　Goldman Sachs has become the latest punter to weigh in with a pretty solid bullish thesis.

　　"Brent oil prices have reached new highs since October 2018, and we forecast that this rally will continue, with our year-end Brent forecast of $90/bbl vs. 80/bbl previously. While we have long held a bullish oil view, the current global oil supply-demand deficit is larger than we expected, with the recovery in global demand from the Delta impact even faster than our above consensus forecast and with global supply remaining short of our consensus forecasts."

　　GS further notes that, "Hurricane Ida has more than offset the ramp-up in production by OPEC+ since July with non-OPEC+ non-shale production continuing to disappoint. Available vaccines have so far proven effective against the Delta variant leading to lower hospitalization rates and allowing more countries to re-open particularly in Covid-averse countries in Asia. Meanwhile, winter demand remains skewed to the upside with a global natural gas shortage continuing to bite. Goldman has predicted that the latest inventory draw of 4.5mb/d–the largest on record–is unlikely to be reversed in the coming months and sets the stage for oil inventories to drop to their lowest since 2013."

　　GS is not the only strong oil bull here.

　　Back in June, a Bank of America analyst made waves after predicting that oil prices could be headed to $100.

　　BofA commodities strategist Francisco Blanch said he sees a case for $100 a barrel oil in 2022 as the world begins facing a serious oil supply crunch:

　　"First, there is plenty of pent up mobility demand after an 18 month lockdown. Second, mass transit will lag, boosting private car usage for a prolonged period of time. Third, pre-pandemic studies show more remote work could result in more miles driven, as work-from-home turns into work-from-car. On the supply side, we expect government policy pressure in the U.S. and around the world to curb capex over coming quarters to meet Paris goals. Secondly, investors have become more vocal against energy sector spending for both financial and ESG reasons. Third, judicial pressures are rising to limit carbon dioxide emissions. In short, demand is poised to bounce back and supply may not fully keep up, placing OPEC in control of the oil market in 2022," explained Blanch.

　　Meanwhile, UBS maintains a pro-cyclical bias, expecting rates to climb further. With a strong tilt to recovery, UBS says it favors Energy (NYSEARCA:XLE), Consumer Discretionary (NYSEARCA:XLY), Financials (NYSEARCA:XLF), and Industrials (NYSEARCA:XLI).

　　"Overall, our outlook for growth in the economy and corporate profits remains unchanged and our fixed income team expects interest rates to reverse course and for the 10-year Treasury yield to rise toward 2% by the end of the year. We therefore view the recent underperformance of cyclical segments as temporary."

　　How to Play the Oil Price Rally

　　At this juncture, it's safe to say that Wall Street is decidedly bullish on the oil price outlook.

　　Goldman Sachs analyst Neil Mehta has recommended ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) and ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) as the best options to play the new gusher in oil prices.

　　On COP:

　　"The company should deliver 30%-40% of cash flow back to shareholders in the form of dividends/buybacks, has proven a core competency around M&A execution, offers a better geographic diversification than many E&Ps [exploration and production companies], but higher oil leverage than the U.S. majors. In addition, the stock trades at the highest free cash flow yield among the majors in 2022 and lowest EV/DACF multiple," Mehta contends.

　　On XOM:

　　"Exxon is one of our most out of consensus ratings, where most investors we speak to are concerned about (a) the sustainability of earnings execution given weaker EPS surprise ratios than the S&P in recent years and (b) the premium valuation versus U.S. oil peers. However, we argue a premium valuation is justified by a strong asset base and historical trading patterns. We also see earnings beats continuing well into the future."

　　In the year-to-date, COP and XOM shares are up 66.8% and 43.9%, respectively.

　　Natural gas mega rally

　　Let's now delve into the biggest highlight of this energy bull: The natural gas mega rally.

　　Natural gas prices have hit their highest levels since 2014, outpacing oil and many other commodities. On Tuesday, natural gas futures were trading up 5.2% to $6.13 per million British thermal units (BTUs), their highest settlement price since January 2014. Natural gas prices are up 125% in the year-to-date, while the biggest nat. gas benchmark, the United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) is up 121% over the timeframe. The sticker shock is even greater in other key natural gas markets around the globe, with East Asian benchmark futures and European natural gas spot prices have climbed 4-5 times year-ago levels to $19 per MMBtu.

　　Yet, some experts are saying that this rally is far from over.

　　Stan Brownell, an analyst at Argus Media, and Luke Jackson, an analyst at S&P Global Platts, figure that Henry Hub prices would have to jump to $10 or more to provide an incentive to fulfill domestic natural gas demand.

　　That would mean nearly doubling of natural gas prices from current levels to levels last seen in 2008 when the U.S. produced about 40% less natural gas.

　　International natural gas demand is booming.

　　An unusually cold winter in Europe as well as a global rebound from Covid-19 have triggered strong demand and depleted natural gas inventories. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ida has knocked out a considerable amount of gas production, with 77% of oil and gas production still offline in the Gulf of Mexico. According to U.S. government statistics, natural gas inventories are currently 17% lower compared to a year ago and 7.4% below the five-year average.

　　To catch up to the five-year average storage level by early winter, U.S. natural gas producers need to inject roughly 90.4 billion cubic feet each week from now, about 40% higher than the five-year average weekly buildup clip. The latest data by the Energy Information Administration shows that nat. Gas inventories climbed 52 bcf last week, way below what is required to build enough stockpiles for the winter.

　　Interestingly, the analysts note that U.S. consumption isn't really the driving force behind the strong price action. Indeed, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, domestic natural-gas consumption through June was in line with 2020 levels.

　　The real culprit here is robust international demand for natural gas as well as a fast-growing U.S. LNG sector.

　　In the first half of the year, the U.S. exported roughly 10% of its natural gas, or 41% more than a year ago. Normally, excess natural gas produced during the summer would go into underground storage. But that domestic stockpiling has been lower than normal, with producers exporting much of it as LNG.

　　Asia and Europe still need to stock up more to prepare for the winter, and much of their supplies will have to come from the U.S. because non-U.S. LNG exporters have mostly been down with maintenance-related snags. For instance, Russia, Europe's most important natural-gas provider, has been slowing its deliveries. Natural gas inventories in Europe are currently a whopping 16% below the five-year average and at a record low for September. Meanwhile, continuous unplanned outages at LNG export facilities in several countries, including Australia, Malaysia, Nigeria, Algeria, Norway, and Trinidad and Tobago, have contributed to increased demand for U.S. LNG.

　　Europe's natural gas spot prices have historically been lower than prices in Asia; however, this year, Europe's natural gas prices are tracking Asia's spot LNG prices more closely to attract flexible LNG supplies from around the world to refill storage inventories.

　　A severe winter in the U.S. could lead to domestic markets having to compete with hungry Asian and European buyers, thus driving prices even higher.

　　A severe winter in the U.S. could easily lead to an even crazier surge in natural gas prices.