摩根士丹利：80美元油价正将市场推向需求崩溃

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据9月29日CNBC报道，对看涨石油的人来说，当前的能源市场形势看起来不错。周二，国际基准布伦特原油价格突破了人们期待已久的每桶80美元关口，但在伦敦时间周三上午10:30，回落至每桶78.47美元。与此同时，西德克萨斯中质原油交易价格为每桶74.73美元。

　　随着冬季的到来和欧洲天然气短缺，需求前景似乎很乐观。但一些专家警告称，随着价格的攀升，需求的破坏可能即将到来。

　　摩根士丹利在6月份的报告中写道，“油价已经与供应的边际成本脱节。相反，它们正在走向需求破坏的水平，我们估计价格约为80美元/桶”。这该行在周二的一份报告中仍坚持这一论点。

　　不过，该公司补充称，“需求崩溃的价格可能极其难以估计，我们暂时保持价格预期不变，但我们认识到，从目前的趋势来看，85美元/桶的看涨行情显然是存在的。”

　　摩根士丹利预计，全球石油供应将变得更加紧张，并指出8月平均每天消耗300万桶原油库存，而今年前几个月平均每天仅消耗190万桶。

　　该行分析师Martijn Rats和Amy Sergeant表示，“这些吸引力很高，表明市场供应不足的程度超出了普遍预期。此外，航班和运输市场已经回升，当前Flightradar的商业航班数据缩小了与新冠肺炎疫情爆发前的差距”。

　　不过，并非所有迹象都是看涨的。

　　世界银行星期二表示，德尔塔病毒正在减缓东亚和太平洋地区的经济增长，该地区大多数国家的增长预期都被下调。

　　更高的能源价格还将推高通胀，对需求构成重大威胁。

　　布伦诺克在周二的一份报告中写道，“油价上涨是通胀的最大驱动因素之一，不断恶化的通货膨胀状况将拖累脆弱的经济复苏和石油消费。这正好把我们带到了需求破坏的问题上”。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 CNBC

　　原文如下：

　　$80 oil is sending the market toward demand destruction, Morgan Stanley says

　　The current energy market picture is looking good for oil bulls.

　　International benchmark Brent crude passed the long-anticipated threshold of $80 per barrel on Tuesday, though it’s since slipped back down to trade at $78.47 as of Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. in London. West Texas Intermediate was trading at $74.73 per barrel around the same time.

　　With winter ahead and a gas crunch in Europe, the demand picture appears promising. But demand destruction could be right around the corner as prices climb higher, some experts are warning.

　　“Oil prices have disconnected from the marginal cost of supply. Instead, they are travelling to the level where demand destruction kicks in, which we estimate at ~$80/bbl.” That’s what Morgan Stanley wrote in June, and in a note Tuesday, the bank wrote: “This remains our thesis.”

　　It added, however, that “the price at which demand destruction kicks in can be fiendishly difficult to estimate. We leave our price forecast unchanged for now but recognise that, on current trends, upside to our bull case scenario to $85/bbl clearly exists.”

　　Morgan Stanley foresees global oil supply getting tighter, citing an average of 3 million barrels of crude per day of inventory draws in the last month, compared to 1.9 million barrels per day drawn in the preceding months of this year.

　　“These draws are high and suggest the market is more undersupplied than generally perceived,” the bank’s analysts Martijn Rats and Amy Sergeant said.

　　Furthermore, flights and transport have picked up, with Flightradar data on commercial flights “closing the gap to pre-covid levels,” they said.

　　Still, not all the signs are bullish.

　　The World Bank said Tuesday that the Delta variant is slowing economic growth in the East Asia and Pacific region, and growth forecasts have been downgraded for most of the region’s countries. And It faces a potential slowdown with its Evergrande crisis and a growing power shortage that’s hitting factories, homes and supply chains.

　　Higher energy prices will also fuel even higher inflation, which poses a significant threat to demand.

　　“Rising oil prices have been one of the biggest drivers of inflation,” Brennock wrote in a Tuesday note. “And a worsening inflationary situation will act as a drag on the fragile economic recovery and oil consumption. This brings us neatly onto the issue of demand destruction.”