高盛：欧佩克+虽不愿意但也无法阻止油价反弹

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价9月29日报道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，油价已进入结构性牛市，并重申了每桶90美元的油价预期。

　　石油库存正在经历着有史以来最大的单日消耗，而全球天然气短缺的加剧只会增加石油需求。

　　最终，欧佩克+将不愿意也无法遏制油价飙升。

　　很少有人能预料到，在需求复苏的情况下，今年已经经历了一轮广泛的牛市之后，油价还会继续上涨。显然，这个全球交易最多的大宗商品刚刚从欧洲和亚洲的天然气危机中获得了重大提振，促使分析师们更新了他们的预测。在所有观察人士中，高盛是最乐观的，该公司的大宗商品分析师坚持布伦特原油每桶80美元的目标价格，尽管许多关键市场出现了疫情反复，以及其他看跌事件。但如今，这些分析师已将油价目标上调至每桶90美元，认为油价已进入结构性牛市。

　　高盛大宗商品团队在一份报告中指出，石油库存大幅下滑，是推动市场从周期性市场转向结构性市场的因素之一。目前，石油库存日跌幅约为450万桶，为有记录以来最大单日跌幅。

　　石油结构性牛市被定义为由基本面失衡和金融泡沫等因素驱动的市场，但无论是熊市还是牛市，飓风艾达造成的美国石油产量损失对其产生了重大影响。据估计，艾达飓风造成的总产量损失约为3000万桶，不仅是近年来最具破坏性的飓风之一，也是欧佩克+自今年7月以来增产未能改变世界供应状况的主要原因之一。

　　事实上，国际能源署（IEA）早些时候报告称，由于受到飓风艾达影响，尽管欧佩克+增产，8月份全球石油供应实际上减少了54万桶/日。IEA补充称，预计产量将于10月恢复增长，但高盛认为，这远远不足以恢复供需平衡。

　　这家投资银行的大宗商品分析师预计，随着旅游市场复苏，石油需求复苏，布伦特原油价格到今年年底将触及每桶90美元。分析人士表示，复苏将由最新的新一轮疫情期间较低的感染率推动，这证明疫苗接种有效，有望再次恢复正常生活。

　　这并不是普通的新闻消费者从浏览疫情相关报告中所能看到的，石油需求的持续增长表明，这些报道只显示了部分情况，不过，剩下的也不是那么悲观。

　　最后，对石油来说还有额外的利好因素，即天然气危机已经重创欧洲。当地生产投资不足,需求的激增,经济活动反弹,以及去年冬天的恶劣天气导致储藏室半空，这些因素在今年年初演变成了欧洲的一场完美风暴，推高了天然气价格，促使公用事业重新启动煤和石油发电厂。这些因素增加了能源成本。

　　高盛分析师指出，所有这些都将导致石油市场持续出现供应不足。此外，短缺规模将压倒欧佩克+的意愿和能力。分析师指出，美国页岩油气的复苏也不足以消除供应缺口。

　　这基本上意味着，油价将在更长时间内保持高位。尽管需求正在复苏，但这种情况在几个月前看来都是不太可能出现的，因为人们对可再生能源的关注及其在永久扼杀石油需求方面的作用。雪上加霜的是，煤炭价格也在飙升，欧洲公用事业需要增加库存，为冬季可再生能源发电量下降做好准备。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　OPEC+ Will Be Unwilling And Unable To Stop The Oil Price Rally

　　Goldman Sachs claims that oil has entered a structural bull market, reaffirming their $90 oil prediction

　　Oil inventories are seeing their largest daily drawdowns ever, and the growing global natural gas shortage will only increase demand for oil

　　OPEC+ will ultimately be unwilling and unable to counter soaring oil prices

　　Few could have predicted that after an already extensive bull run this year amid recovering demand, oil prices had much further to go. And yet, the world’s most traded commodity just got a major boost from the gas crunch in Europe and Asia, prompting forecasters to update their forecasts. One of the most bullish of all observers has been Goldman Sachs, whose commodity analysts have stuck to their price target of $80 for Brent crude regardless of the resurgence of Covid-19 in many key markets and other bearish events. Now, these analysts have raised their target to $90, arguing that oil has entered a structural bull market.

　　In a note from earlier this week, the Goldman commodities team noted the sizeable drawdowns in oil stocks, which currently stand at around 4.5 million bpd and which are the biggest daily drawdowns ever recorded, are one of the factors driving the shift from a cyclical to a structural market.

　　Defined as a market - bearish or bullish - that is driven by factors such as fundamental imbalances and financial bubbles, the structural bull market for oil was also affected significantly by the loss of U.S. oil production caused by Hurricane Ida. With some 30 million barrels in total estimated production losses, Ida has become not only one of the most devastating hurricanes in recent history but one of the main reasons that OPEC+ production ramp-ups since July this year will fail to make a difference to world supply.

　　In fact, the International Energy Agency reported earlier that because of Hurricane Ida, global oil supply actually fell in August, despite OPEC+ ramp-ups, by 540,000 bpd. The IEA added it expected production growth to resume next month, but according to Goldman Sachs, this will be nowhere near enough to restore the balance between supply and demand.

　　The investment bank’s commodity analysts now expect Brent crude to hit $90 by the end of the year as demand for oil recovers amid the recovery in travel. The recovery, according to the analysts, will be driven by lower infection rates during the latest Covid-19 wave, which is proof that vaccination works and a return to normal life may be attainable once again.

　　This is not what the average consumer of news would gather from browsing Covid-19 related reports, but the continued increase in oil demand suggests those reports only show part of the picture, and the other part is not all that pessimistic.

　　Finally, there is the bonus bullish factor for oil: the gas crunch that has crippled Europe.

　　A combination of underinvestment in local production, a jump in demand as economic activity rebounded, and a harsh winter last year that left storage caverns half-empty turned into a perfect storm for Europe earlier this year and pushed gas prices sky-high, prompting utilities to restart coal and oil power plants.

　　All this will drive a persistent deficit for oil markets, the Goldman analysts noted. Further, “its scale will overwhelm both the willingness and ability for OPEC+ to ramp up.” A recovery in U.S. shale will also be insufficient to erase the deficit, the analysts noted.

　　This basically means oil will remain higher for longer - a scenario that would have been unlikely at best a few months ago despite the recovering demand because of the focus on renewables and their role in killing oil demand permanently. Now, to add insult to injury, coal prices are also soaring as European utilities stock up to be prepared for the drop in renewable generation during the winter.