赫斯：未来最大不确定因素是对新供应投资不足

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2021年9月27日报道，美国著名综合石油公司赫斯公司（Hess Corp.）总裁格雷格·希尔9月26日表示，石油行业在供应方面“严重投资不足”，无法满足不断增长的需求，全球石油需求最快将在2021年底或2022年初恢复到疫情之前的水平。

　　希尔称，短期内油价将受到供应趋紧、需求难以跟上的市场支撑。

　　希尔表示，到今年年底或2022年初，全球石油需求预计将达到1亿桶/天，并补充称，明年全球石油需求将升至1.02亿桶/天，超过疫情前的水平。希尔表示，目前全球石油需求约为9,800万桶/天。

　　希尔说，未来石油市场最大的不确定因素将是对新供应的投资不足。

　　据伍德麦肯兹今年早些时候的估计，去年全球上游投资从疫情前的大约6000亿美元降至3500亿美元，为15年来最低水平。

　　“目前几乎没有证据表明上游投资已从15年低点回升，即使是在价格敏感的美国大陆致密油区块。 如果油价在2022年仍维持在较高水平，并显示出持续复苏的迹象，市场情绪将会改变。”

　　希尔在接受路透社采访时表示，“这说明石油行业在满足未来供应方面的投资严重不足。”

　　希尔说，除了对新石油供应的投资不足，目前市场上的其他不确定因素是通货膨胀和可能恢复的生产。

　　赫斯公司并非是唯一一家预计短期内市场吃紧、需求强劲的美国石油生产商。

　　上周，康菲公司首席执行官瑞安·兰斯表示，全球石油需求将在2022年初恢复到疫情之前的水平。

　　兰斯告诉彭博社记者，“我们看到需求在改善，我们看到需求可能在今年第四季度末或明年第一季度回到疫情前的水平，市场变得相对平衡。”他补充说，与此同时，供应将仍然有限。

　　李峻 编译自 油价网

　　原文如下：

　　Hess: Massive Underinvestment In New Production Is A Major Wildcard For Oil

　　The oil industry is “massively underinvesting” in supply to meet growing demand, which is set to return to pre-COVID levels as soon as the end of 2021 or early 2022, Greg Hill, president of U.S. oil producer Hess Corp, said on Monday.

　　In the short term, oil prices will be supported by tightening markets with supply struggling to catch up with demand, Hill said, as carried by Reuters.

　　Oil demand worldwide is expected to hit 100 million barrels per day (bpd) by the end of this year or in early 2022, Hill said, adding that demand next year is set to rise to 102 million bpd—exceeding pre-pandemic levels. Currently, global oil demand is around 98 million bpd, Hess Corp’s executive said.

　　Going forward, the biggest wildcard on the oil market will be underinvestment in new supply, Hill said.

　　Last year, global upstream investment sank to a 15-year low of $350 billion, down from around $600 billion before the pandemic, according to estimates by Wood Mackenzie from earlier this year.

　　“There’s little evidence yet of upstream investment perking up from a 15-year low, even in the price-sensitive US Lower 48 tight oil plays. The mood will change if prices remain at these higher levels well into 2022 and show signs of sustained recovery,” WoodMac’s Macro Oils team said in June.

　　“So that tells me the industry is massively underinvesting to meet future supply,” Hess Corp’s president Hill told Reuters in an interview.

　　Apart from underinvestment in new oil supply, the other wild cards in the market right now are inflation and the possible return of Iranian barrels, according to Hill.

　　Hess Corp is not the only U.S. oil producer expecting tight markets and robust demand in the short term.

　　Last week, ConocoPhillips’ chief executive Ryan Lance said that crude oil demand would bounce back to levels from before the Covid-19 pandemic by early 2022.

　　“We see the demand improving, we see probably getting back to pre-pandemic levels by the end of fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year and the market getting relatively balanced,” Lance told Bloomberg, adding that meanwhile, supply would remain constrained.