渣打银行：原油价格即将上涨

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价10月8日报道，渣打银行全球研究部在过去几个月一直保持对油价前景些许看跌的预测，但上周，这家投资银行突然转向看涨态度。

　　渣打银行将2021年布伦特原油平均价格预测上调6美元/桶，至71美元/桶，将2022年布伦特原油平均价格预测上调8美元/桶，至67美元/桶

　　对于油价走势，华尔街有一个主要的分歧，一些人认为石油和天然气的大幅上涨是暂时的，另一部分人则认为这一上涨仍有后劲。

　　渣打银行一直在定期提供大宗商品最新数据，并在8月份引起了轰动，当时他们宣布，布伦特原油价格65美元/桶或更低的可能性大于75美元/桶或更高的可能性。渣打银行表示，其看跌观点是基于这样一个事实，即大量资金已经进入市场，因为华尔街认为石油供需更加紧张，80-100美元/桶的价格是合理的。

　　最近，渣打银行保持了看跌的论调，称油价反弹并不完全合理，每桶80美元的基本面并不比几个月前更强劲。

　　能源牛市继续挑战所有看跌预期，迫使渣打180度大转弯，加入牛市阵营。

　　在10月4日欧佩克+会议后不久发布的最新数据更新中，渣打分析师表示，“我们认为市场已经得出结论，欧佩克+不认为80美元/桶是上限，短期内不太可能给价格降温。这些因素导致我们改变了对价格的看法。我们将2021年布伦特原油平均价格预测上调6美元/桶至71美元/桶，将2022年布伦特原油平均价格预测上调8美元/桶至67美元/桶。我们认为，在未来6个月内，即使天然气替代石油产量预计为70万桶/日，且12月后欧佩克+产量不会增加，市场仍将保持平衡。我们的观点与美国能源信息署(EIA)的观点基本一致，比欧佩克秘书处的观点更加乐观，尤其是第一季度。我们自己的和其他模型暗示，供应的季度短缺是一种市场担忧，而不是一种基本情况。然而，欧佩克+还没有解决这种担忧。”

　　欧佩克+会议决定产生巨大影响

　　渣打银行的突然看涨情绪是受欧佩克+最近的会议决定影响的，这次会议十分简短，之后的新闻发布会也很简短，没有讨论原油价格或过热的天然气市场。欧佩克+确认将坚持7月协议，每月增产40万桶/日，直至2022年4月，逐步取消现有的580万桶/日的减产。

　　实际上，财长们未能对市场的说法提出质疑。市场认为，油价平衡吃紧，并由此导致闲置产能不足，这意味着油价可能会在比预期更长时间内保持在高位。这也表明，石油生产国愿意捍卫一个高于许多人此前预期的价格下限。

　　但到底有多高呢?

　　在摩根大通全球市场策略团队站出来鼓励投资者逢低买入后，乐观的投资者们又得到了一剂强心针，近期能源价格飙升，因为经济能够支撑每桶150美元的油价。

　　例如，在2010-2015年期间，经济和消费者运转良好，当时油价平均为100美元。经通胀、消费者资产负债表、石油总支出、工资和其他资产(住房、股票等)价格调整后，即使油价处于130美元或150美元，在资本循环方面进行一些再平衡，股市和经济也能正常运转。

　　摩根大通并不是唯一预期超级牛市的。

　　休斯敦能源咨询公司OPPortuneLLP表示，美国经济正走向由疫情引发的恶性通胀。他认为，上次量化宽松政策花了五年时间才奏效，现在却在不到一年的时间里重复了这一做法。分析师们表示，随着货币供应的迅速扩张，恶性通货膨胀何时到来只是时间问题。专家认为，鉴于政府对支出的巨大需求，美元可能会大幅贬值，这将推动WTI价格在2022年底前升至180美元/桶以上。

　　由于欧佩克+愿意为油价上涨辩护，而美国又不鼓励国内钻探，因此，压低油价的唯一选择似乎是开始出售其战略石油储备。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　One Of Wall Street’s Biggest Oil Bears Sees Higher Crude Prices On The Horizon

　　Standard Chartered Global Research has maintained its somewhat bearish oil price outlook during the last couple of months, but last week, the investment bank suddenly turned bullish

　　Standard Chartered raised its 2021 average Brent price forecast by USD 6/bbl to USD 71/bbl, and its 2022 forecast by USD 8/bbl to USD 67/bbl

　　There has been a major dichotomy on Wall Street regarding the oil price trajectory, with some viewing the massive oil and gas rally as being temporary and transitory while the bulls have been saying this rally still has legs to run.

　　Standard Chartered Global Research has been providing regular commodities updates, and made waves in August when they declared that a Brent price of $65/bbl or lower was more likely than $75/bbl or higher. Stanchart said its bearish view was informed by the fact that "...a significant amount of money has already entered the market in the Wall Street-generated belief (mistaken according to our analysis) that the balances are much tighter and justify USD 80-100/bbl."

　　More recently, Stanchart maintained its bearish tone, saying that the oil price rally is not fully justified, and that the fundamental case for USD 80/bbl is not any stronger today than it was a few months ago.

　　Well, the energy bull market has continued defying all bearish expectations, and has forced Stanchart to do a 180 and join the bull camp.

　　In its latest commodity update, coming shortly after the October 4th OPEC+ meeting, Stanchart analysts say:

　　"We think the market has concluded that OPEC+ does not see USD 80 per barrel (bbl) as a ceiling, and that it is unlikely to cool prices in the short term. These factors lead us to change our price views; we raise our 2021 average Brent price forecast by USD 6/bbl to USD 71/bbl, and our 2022 forecast by USD 8/bbl to USD 67/bbl. We see the market as, at best, balanced over the next six months even with a high estimate of 700kb/d of substitution from gas to oil and with no OPEC+ increases after December. Our view is broadly in line with that of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and is more bullish than that of the OPEC Secretariat, particularly for Q1. Our own and other models imply that extreme tightness is a market fear rather than a base case; however, OPEC+ has yet to address that fear."

　　Terse OPEC+ Meeting

　　Stanchart's sudden bullishness has been informed by OPEC+ latest meeting, a short and terse affair followed by a brief press release with no discussion of either crude prices or the spill-over from overheating gas markets. OPEC+ confirmed that it would stick to its July agreement to boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) each month until at least April 2022 to phase out 5.8 million bpd of existing production cuts.

　　In effect, the ministers failed to challenge the market narrative that assumes tight balances and an associated lack of spare capacity, meaning prices are likely to remain elevated for longer than anticipated. This also suggests that the oil producers are willing to defend a higher price floor than what many previously thought.

　　But just how high?

　　The bulls have received yet another shot in the arm after J.P. Morgan's global markets strategy team came out and encouraged investors to buy on any dips despite the recent spike in energy prices because the economy can support $150 oil.

　　"For instance, the economy and the consumer were functioning just fine in the period over 2010-2015, when oil averaged $100. Adjusting for inflation, consumer balance sheets, total oil expenditures, wages, and prices of other assets (housing, stocks, etc.) we think even with oil at $130 or $150 equity markets and the economy could function well (with some rebalancing at capital rotation)," JPM strategist Marko Kolanovic has said.

　　JPM is not the only ultrabull.

　　Opportune LLP says the U.S. economy is headed for pandemic-induced hyperinflation, arguing that what took five years to do with the last QE has now been duplicated in less than a year. The analysts say that with such rapid expansion of the money supply, it's only a question of when hyperinflation will hit. The experts argue that given the government's insatiable appetite for spending, the dollar could be set for massive devaluation that will propel WTI prices north of $180/bbl by the end of 2022.

　　With OPEC+ willing to defend higher oil prices and the Administration discouraging drilling at home, it appears that its sole option to push prices lower is to start selling its strategic oil reserves.