IEA：到2050年石化产品将占原油需求50%以上

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据ICIS网站10月13日报道 国际能源机构（IEA）周三表示，到2050年，交通、工业和住宅供暖的电气化将使石化行业成为原油的主要消费行业，占化石燃料需求的55%。

　　这家总部位于巴黎的机构在其《2021年全球能源展望》中表示，在全球能源结构的所有潜在背景下，原油作为石化行业原料的使用量都将增长。

　　中东、印度石油化工行业原油消费量将大幅增加。

　　国际能源署的三个方案包括2050年的净零排放（NZE）方案，这是最理想的方案，因为全球试图在2100年将全球变暖控制在比工业化前水平高1.5°C的水平。

　　宣布的承诺愿景（APS）考虑了各国遵守2015年巴黎协定的承诺，而声明的政策情景（STEPS）着眼于这些承诺，但缺乏如何实施的细节。

　　原油，连同天然气和煤炭，都是排放温室气体（GHG）的化石燃料，而温室气体正导致全球变暖。

　　虽然在这三种情况下，塑料和其他石化衍生产品的回收率预计将增长，但随着新兴经济体城市化和对消费品需求的增加，石化产品的使用也将增加。

　　国际能源署表示：“石化行业是2020年唯一一个石油使用量增加的行业。越来越多的国家最近宣布或推出了政策，以扩大回收和限制一次性塑料的使用，并在废物管理和回收方面进行了投资，这在许多刺激方案中都有体现。”

　　王磊 摘译自 ICIS

　　原文如下：

　　Petrochemicals to capture more than 50% of crude demand by 2050 - IEA

　　Electrification of transport, industry and residential heating will leave the petrochemicals sector as the main consumer of crude oil by 2050, capturing 55% of demand for the fossil fuel, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.

　　The Paris-based body said in its World Energy Outlook (WEO) 2021 that the use of crude oil as a feedstock for the petrochemicals sector is to grow under all its potential scenarios for the global energy mix.

　　The rise would come from “large increases” in crude consumption in the petrochemicals industry in the Middle East and India.

　　The IEA’s three scenarios includes the Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario by 2050, the most desirable as the world tries to contain global warming to a 1.5°C increase by 2100, compared with pre-industrial levels.

　　The Announced Pledges Scenario (APS) takes into account countries’ pledges to comply with the 2015 Paris Agreement, while the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS) looks at those pledges but how they lack detail on how to be implemented.

　　Crude oil, together with natural gas and coal, are fossil fuels that emit greenhouse gases (GHGs), which are causing global warming.

　　While recycling rates for plastics and other petrochemical-derived products are predicted to grow under the three scenarios, the use of petrochemicals also increases as emerging economies urbanise and their hunger for consumer products rises.

　　“The petrochemical sector was the only segment that saw an increase in oil use in 2020. An increasing number of countries have recently announced or introduced policies to scale up recycling and limit single-use plastics, and investment in waste management and recycling featured in a number of stimulus packages,” said the IEA.