摩根士丹利：全球LNG需求2030年前将增长25-50%

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据世界能源新闻网2021年10月25日报道，摩根士丹利研究分析师周一在一份报告中表示，预计到2030年前，全球液化天然气(LNG)的需求量将增长25%至50%，使LNG成为未来十年增长最快的碳氢化合物。

　　摩根士丹利将LNG的长期价格预期上调至10美元/百万英热单位(mmBtu)，预计未来10年这种超冷燃料的现货价格将比过去5年平均水平上涨40%。

　　亚洲LNG现货价格10月早些时候创下逾56美元/ 百万英热单位的纪录，原因是受疫情后经济复苏的刺激，北半球冬季来临前需求激增超过了供应。

　　摩根士丹利表示，到2030年前，至少需要每年7300万吨的新项目来满足全球LNG的需求。 除了自2019年以来批准的2000亿美元在建项目之外，这将需要额外650亿美元的新项目。

　　分析师表示：“与投资者预期相反，在能源转型的初始阶段，世界将需要更多的LNG。”

　　“天然气的竞争技术开发得还不够快，而且在绿色燃料商业化的同时，减少煤炭消耗有显著的好处。”

　　他们表示，排放强度较低的项目将更受欢迎，更有可能取得进展。

　　分析师表示，尽管天然气价格上涨可能会支撑LNG的进一步投资，但LNG供应的反应将比前几个周期慢。

　　他们表示：“这将受到中期需求不确定性以及该行业更多资本约束的推动，包括向更环保的能源领域多元化。”

　　“我们认为，考虑到更好的价格和回报预期，投资者对以LNG为主的公司的人气可能会上升。”

　　分析师表示，未来10至15年，全球LNG需求的增长将超过其他碳氢化合物，并补充称，石油需求预计将按照近期平均水平增长，而煤炭需求预计将持平。

　　他们补充称，在亚洲，煤炭在能源结构中所占比例很高，将成为由印度、泰国、孟加拉国、印度尼西亚和马来西亚引领的LNG需求增长的主要动力。

　　李峻 编译自 世界能源新闻网

　　原文如下：

　　LNG Demand to Rise 25-50% By 2030 - Morgan Stanley

　　Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to rise by 25 to 50% by 2030, making it the fastest growing hydrocarbon over the next decade, analysts from Morgan Stanley Research said in a note on Monday.

　　Morgan Stanley has raised its long-term LNG price outlook to $10 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), expecting spot prices of the super-chilled fuel to average 40% higher over the next decade, versus the past five years.

　　Asian spot LNG prices hit a record above $56 mmBtu earlier this month as surging demand ahead of the northern hemisphere winter spurred by an economic rebound from the pandemic outstripped supply.

　　Morgan Stanley said at least 73 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) of new projects are needed to meet LNG demand by 2030. This will require an additional $65 billion of new projects, on top of the $200 billion of projects already under construction which were sanctioned since 2019.

　　"Contrary to investor expectations, the world is going to need more LNG in the initial phase of the energy transition," the analysts said.

　　"Competing technologies for natural gas are not being developed fast enough, and there are significant benefits in reducing coal consumption while greener fuels are commercialized."

　　Projects with lower emission intensity will be more sought after and are more likely to progress, they said.

　　While higher gas prices are likely to underpin further investment in LNG, supply will be slower to respond than in previous cycles, the analysts said.

　　"This will be driven by uncertainty over medium-term demand along with more capital discipline from the industry, including diversification into greener energies," they said.

　　"We think investor sentiment towards LNG-focused companies is likely to increase given better prices and returns expectations."

　　LNG demand will outpace growth in other hydrocarbons over the next 10 to 15 years, they said, adding that oil demand is expected to grow in line with recent averages while coal demand is expected to be flat.

　　Asia, where coal makes up a high proportion of the energy mix, will be the key driver for LNG demand growth led by India as well as Thailand, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Malaysia, they added.