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美国原油供应下降开始影响全球油价

2021-10-28 来源: 中国石化新闻网
石化新闻
 

  中国石化新闻网讯 据美国油价网站报道,来自伦敦彭博社的消息称,最近油价飙升的罪魁祸首不是飙升的天然气价格,也不是OPEC+对产量的限制,而是美国俄克拉荷马州最大的石油储存中心库欣正在发生的事情。

  交易员们担心,库欣的库存将跌至实物能跌到的最低水平。这使得衡量市场健康状况的时间价差飙升至多年来最乐观的水平,这一走势目前正波及全球基准布伦特原油

  库欣是美国原油期货的交割点,也是世界上最大的仓储中心之一。那里的供求平衡推动着每日价值数亿美元的石油交易。相对于较晚日期的合同,即期交货的石油成本越高,就反映出相对于需求而言,供应是多么的短缺。

  这些数字正在迅速增长。对于美国原油而言,与2018年以来五个月以来的合约相比,近期合约的溢价是最大的,当时库欣的库存接近运营低位。12月和12月之间的价差是全球石油对冲基金青睐的交易,目前价差处于2013年以来的最高水平,2013年的平均价格接近每桶100美元。

  因此,石油市场正在尽其所能将美国原油留在国内。自2020年4月以来,西德克萨斯中质原油(WTI)对国际基准布伦特原油(Brent)的折让幅度最小,此举旨在遏制海外原油流动。这意味着,预计类似质量的北海原油价格将出现反弹,这刺激了全球基准结构布伦特原油(Brent)的买盘。备受关注的12月期货盘价差赤字只差60美分就能破纪录了。

  咨询公司Energy Aspects的全球原油分析师基特•海恩斯(Kit Haines)表示:“市场对储油罐见底感到担忧,这真是一个令人难以置信的故事。”“WTI的定价权衡将基于在美国国内市场而定。布伦特原油将不得不追逐低硫原油,而且在一定程度上已经做到了。”他指的是低硫原油。

  近几周,由于天然气价格推高了脱硫的关键成分氢的成本,低硫原油的相对价值有所攀升。因此,最近几天,布伦特原油相对于含硫原油的溢价已升至2018年以来的最高水平。加拿大是这一趋势的一个缩影,美国各地的交易商都在回避重油生产,转而青睐轻质原油。

  尽管油价飙升,但仍有理由保持谨慎。最近几周,来自亚洲的需求帮助支撑了现货原油市场,但也有一些放缓的迹象。据彭博社收集的船舶追踪数据显示,由于未能在亚洲找到买家,两艘满载着Forties的超级油轮也在英国索斯沃尔德(Southwold)海上漂浮了一个多月。低硫原油溢价的提高降低了它们对亚洲买家的吸引力,而且随着时间的推移,实物价差尚未显示出同样的强劲势头。

  猖獗的看涨情绪也体现在投机性资金流动中。石油期权流显示,投资者强烈倾向于看涨押注,而不是看跌押注。布伦特(Brent) 100美元看涨合约的交易数周内大幅上升,而本月迄今未平仓合约几乎翻了一番,达到逾8万份。也有高达150美元和200美元的买家。

  但就目前而言,布伦特原油市场跟随西德克萨斯中质油走高,因交易商押注轻甜原油供应仍将吃紧。1月和2月合约的价差自2019年以来首次超过1美元,2月和3月的价差也超过1美元。这是美国历史上唯一一次原油期货价差在如此高的水平上结算,当时的总体价格接近每桶100美元。

  毅联汇业的能源专家Scott Shelton表示,“布伦特原油价差正在上涨,因美国利润率较高的出口减少,且全球油价走强,意味着布伦特相关原油可能不得不取代美国原油。”

  

  王佳晶 编译自 美国油价网站

  Falling U.S. crude supply begins to impact global oil prices

  The culprit behind the latest jump in oil prices isn’t soaring natural gas prices or even OPEC+’s limits on output but rather what is happening at America’s largest oil storage hub in Oklahoma.

  Traders are fretting that stockpiles in Cushing will fall as low as they physically can. It has sent gauges of market health known as timespreads soaring to their most bullish levels in years, a move that is now spilling over to the global Brent benchmark.

  Cushing is the delivery point for U.S. crude futures and one of the largest storage hubs in the world. Supply and demand balances there drive daily oil trading worth hundreds of millions of dollars. The higher the cost of oil for prompt delivery relative to later-dated contracts reflects just how short supply is relative to demand.

  The numbers are eyewatering. For U.S. crude, nearby contracts are at their biggest premium to those for five months later since 2018 -- when Cushing stockpiles were near operational lows. The December-December spread, a favored trade of the world’s oil hedge funds, is at its strongest since 2013 a year when prices averaged almost $100 a barrel.

  As a result, the oil market is doing whatever it can to keep U.S. crude at home. West Texas Intermediate crude was its smallest discount to international benchmark Brent since April 2020, a move that’s set to curb flows abroad. That means similar quality North Sea barrels are expected to rally, and that is spurring buying of the global Brent benchmark’s structure. Its closely-watched Dec.-Red-Dec. spread is just 60 cents away from a record.

  “This is really a Cushing story with market fears around tank bottoms,” said Kit Haines, a global crude analyst at consultant Energy Aspects. “WTI is pricing to stay domestic. Brent will have to chase to get the sweet barrels, and already has to a certain extent” he said, referring to those with a low sulfur content.

  The relative value of lower-sulfur crudes has climbed in recent weeks as natural gas prices boost the cost of hydrogen -- a key ingredient in sulfur removal. As a result, Brent’s premium to heavier sour crudes has grown to its widest since 2018 in recent days. Canada is a microcosm of the dynamic with traders across the U.S. shunning its heavy oil production in favor of lighter grades.

  Despite the surge, there are reasons to be cautious. Demand from Asia has helped support physical crude markets in recent weeks but there are some signs of a slowdown. Two supertankers laden with Forties have also been floating off Southwold, England, for more than one month after failing to secure buyers in Asia, according to ship tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. Higher premiums for light-sweet crudes make them less attractive to buyers in Asia and physical differentials are yet to show the same roaring strength as timespreads.

  The rampant bullishness also shows up in speculative flows. Oil options flows indicate investors strongly favor bullish wagers- known as calls - over bearish bets. Trading of Brent $100 calls has jumped in weeks, and open interest over the next year has almost doubled to more than 80,000 contracts so far this month. There’s also been buying as high as $150 and $200.

  For now though, the Brent market is following WTI higher as traders wager that light sweet supply will remain tight. The difference between January and February contracts is above a dollar for the first time since 2019, while the February-March spread also topped a dollar. The only other time that spreads further down the futures curve have settled at such strong levels, headline prices were trading closer to $100.

  “Brent spreads are rallying as the idea of diminished exports from the U.S. with good margins and stronger global runs means that Brent related barrels may have to replace U.S. crudes,” said Scott Shelton energy specialist at ICAP.

 
 
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