2022年太阳能发电成本将大幅上升

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据今日油价网站10月26日消息 雷斯塔能源分析显示，制造材料和运输成本的飙升可能影响到2022年全球公用事业光伏发展计划中的50吉瓦（56%）。商品价格上涨和供应链瓶颈可能导致其中一些项目的推迟甚至取消，从而影响太阳能发电的需求和消费者定价。

　　在核心组件价格上涨的推动下，光伏组件的制造成本已从2020年的每瓦特峰值（Wp）低于0.20美元飙升至2021年下半年的每瓦特峰值0.26-0.28美元，一年内增长近50%。

　　这一激增的一个重要驱动因素是多晶硅（光伏制造的核心组件）成本上涨了300%以上。此外，自2020年1月以来，其他原材料（银、铜、铝和玻璃）也稳步攀升，增加了模块价格的压力。

　　雷斯塔能源的高级可再生能源分析师David Dixon表示：“就在COP26召开的前几天，公用事业太阳能行业面临着最严峻的挑战之一。目前的瓶颈预计不会在未来12个月内得到缓解，这意味着开发商和承购商将不得不决定是否降低利润率、推迟项目或提高承购价格，以使项目实现财务结算。”

　　除了材料成本上涨外，运输是供应链中的另一个要素，给开发人员和模块供应商带来了巨大的挑战。运输成本持续上升，在总体生产资本支出中发挥着更大的作用。2021年之前，光伏运输成本对总体生产成本的影响最小。然而，疫情期间的运输延迟和瓶颈导致价格上涨近500%，从2019年9月的每Wp 0.005美元上涨至2021年10月的每Wp 0.03美元。

　　模块及其相关运输成本通常占项目总资本支出的四分之一至三分之一，共同构成项目成本中最大的一项。当模块成本和运输成本增加时，会对项目经济产生重大影响。

　　雷斯塔能源进行了敏感性分析，以确定不同规模电厂的平准化电力成本（LCOE），并将去年的模块和运输成本与当前成本进行比较。结果表明，新项目的LCOE增加了10-15%，这对计划于2022年实施的大多数项目来说是一次重大的成本提升。鉴于项目面临风险，开发商可能不得不通过谈判达成更高的购电协议（PPA）或吸收部分成本上涨，接受更高的项目成本和更低的利润。

　　王磊 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　Major Cost Increase Threatens Solar Power In 2022

　　The surging cost of manufacturing materials and shipping could threaten 50 gigawatts (GW) – a staggering 56% – of the 90 GW of global utility PV developments planned for 2022, a Rystad Energy analysis shows. Commodity price inflation and supply chain bottlenecks could lead to the postponement or even cancelation of some of these projects, impacting demand and consumer pricing for solar-generated power.

　　Driven by core component price inflation, manufacturing costs for PV modules have surged from below $0.20 per watt peak (Wp) in 2020 to between $0.26 and $0.28 per Wp in the second half of 2021 – a near 50% increase in a year.

　　A significant driver of this surge is a more than 300% hike in the cost of polysilicon, a core component in PV manufacturing. In addition, other raw materials – silver, copper, aluminum and glass – have also climbed steadily since January 2020, increasing the pressure on module prices.

　　"The utility solar industry is facing one of its toughest challenges just days ahead of COP26. The current bottlenecks are not expected to be relieved within the next 12 months, meaning developers and offtakers will have to decide whether to reduce their margins, delay projects or increase offtake prices to get projects to financial close," says David Dixon, senior renewables analyst at Rystad Energy.

　　In addition to materials cost inflation, shipping is another element in the supply chain causing considerable challenges for developers and module suppliers. The cost of shipping continues to rise, playing more of a role in overall production capital expenditure. Before 2021, the cost of PV shipping had a minimal impact on the overall production cost. However, pandemic-era shipping delays and bottlenecks have resulted in a near 500% increase in prices, from $0.005 per Wp in September 2019 to $0.03 per Wp in October 2021.

　　Modules and their associated shipping costs typically comprise between a quarter and a third of the total project capex and together represent the single-largest item of a project's cost. When the cost of modules – and shipping – increases, it can significantly impact project economics.

　　Rystad Energy performed a sensitivity analysis to determine the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for different plant sizes comparing last year’s module and shipping costs with current costs. The results show that the LCOE of new projects has increased by between 10% and 15%, a major cost bump for most of the projects planned for 2022. Seeing their projects at risk, developers may have to resort to negotiating higher power purchase agreements (PPA) or absorbing some of the cost inflation, accepting higher project costs and lower margins.