高盛认为年底布伦特原油或将逾90美元/桶

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据能源世界网10月26日新德里报道，日前，高盛(Goldman Sachs)表示，全球石油需求强劲反弹，可能将布伦特原油价格推高至每桶90美元的年底预测之上。

　　据这家美国投资银行表示，随着亚洲的消费在德尔塔病毒疫情浪潮之后反弹，预计石油需求将很快达到疫情之前的每天1亿桶左右的水平。

　　此外，该银行估计天然气到石油的转换可能至少为石油需求贡献100万桶/天。

　　高盛在10月24日的一份研究报告中称，尽管这不是我们的基本情况，但这种持续性将对我们 90 美元/桶的布伦特原油年底价格预测构成上行风险。

　　全球供应吃紧和需求强劲将油价推至多年高位，截至周一格林威治标准时间07：31，美国西德克萨斯中质原油期货价格为每桶84.38美元，布伦特原油期货价格为86.26美元。

　　鉴于我们预计欧佩克+将继续保持目前每月增加40万桶/天配额的趋势，我们需要将油价升至110美元/桶，以抑制足够的需求，以平衡我们目前看到的明年第一季度的市场赤字。

　　本月早些时候，石油输出国组织、俄罗斯及其盟国被称作欧佩克+（OPEC+）的组织表示，将继续执行现有协议，同意每月增产40万桶/天，至少到2022年4月为止。

　　郝芬 译自 能源世界网

　　原文如下：

　　Goldman sees upside risks to $90 per barrel Brent price forecast

　　Goldman Sachs said a strong rebound in global oil demand could push Brent crude oil prices above its year-end forecast of $90 per barrel.

　　The U.S. investment bank said it expected oil demand will shortly reach pre-COVID-19 levels of around 100 million barrels per day (bpd) as consumption in Asia rebounds after the Delta COVID-19 wave.

　　In addition, the bank estimated gas-to-oil switching may contribute at least 1 million bpd to oil demand.

　　"While not our base-case, such persistence would pose upside risk to our $90/bbl year-end Brent price forecast," Goldman said in a research note dated Oct. 24.

　　Tight global supply and strong demand have pushed oil prices to multi-year highs, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures trading at $84.38 a barrel and Brent crude futures at $86.26 by 0731 GMT on Monday.

　　"We would need prices to rise to $110 /bbl to stifle demand enough to balance the market deficit we currently see in 1Q22 given our expectation that OPEC+ continues on the current path of +0.4 mb/d per month increases in quotas."

　　The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and their allies, known as OPEC+ earlier this month said it would continue an existing deal under which it agreed to boost output by 400,000 bpd a month until at least April 2022.