全球液化天然气需求将持续增长

　　中国石化新闻网讯 最近欧洲和亚洲的能源危机再次凸显了天然气和液化天然气的重要性。

　　近期，随着燃料需求的激增，世界各地的液化天然气生产商正在投资数十亿美元来增加产能。

　　近期天然气价格上涨的另一个影响，将是长期合同的激增。

　　据今日油价10月27日报道，Cheniere能源公司最近宣布计划投资70亿美元扩建其Sabine Pass液化工厂，以应对亚洲对这种超冷燃料激增的需求。印度最大的天然气进口商表示，这种强劲的需求将导致长期合同再次激增。人们可能对石油的长期需求心存疑虑，但液化天然气的未来似乎是光明的。

　　摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)本周早些时候表示，预计到2030年，液化天然气需求将增长25%至50%。该银行分析师还表示，未来10年，液化天然气现货价格可能比过去5年的平均价格高出40%。该银行将大宗商品长期价格预期上调至每百万英热10美元。

　　路透社报道指出，预测长期价格后，将其与本月初亚洲56美元/百万英热的现货价格相比，就将解释为何印度石油公司(Petronet)首席执行官会认为，市场将转向长期合同。 这位高管指出，“这种波动在液化天然气市场历史上从未出现过，我们在过去一年里看到了历史最低价格和最高价格。但乌云背后总会有一线光明，价格高企促使人们签订比正常情况下更多的长期合同，这对全球天然气经济来说可能是件好事"。

　　值的一提的是，对于长期合同，需要有足够的供应。据摩根士丹利分析师称，全球似乎已陷入燃料短缺，到2030年至少需要新增7300万吨的供应。路透社指出，这将耗资约650亿美元，这是自2019年以来批准的2000亿美元液化天然气项目以来，出现的最大成本。

　　英国《金融时报》援引Cheniere Energy首席商务官的话称，“我们认为，亚洲是我们行业未来几十年液化天然气需求的增长驱动力”。

　　Cheniere耗资70亿美元产能扩张项目，是在能源危机下，在欧洲开始并迅速蔓延至亚洲的新一轮液化天然气项目之一。《金融时报》此前援引Tellurian公司的话称，该公司计划斥资150亿美元建造一座核电站，并在今年年底批准在德克萨斯州建立一个新设施，作为下一个十年计划的一部分。

　　十年计划项目首席执行官马特·沙茨曼(Matt Schatzman)表示，“欧洲和世界各地的市场状况证实，市场对液化天然气的需求远远超过可用供应”。Venture Global首席执行官表示，美国液化天然气将对“满足这种日益增长的需求，并为欧洲和其他地区带来能源安全”至关重要。

　　与此同时，这个世界上最大的液化天然气出口国本月初表示，由于需求继续超过供应，其产量已达到极限。半岛电视台援引卡塔尔能源部长萨阿德•卡比(Saad Al - kaabi)的话称:“我们已经筋疲力尽了，因为我们已经向所有客户提供了相应的供应，我对油价高企感到不满”。

　　顺便说一句，卡塔尔正在努力大幅提高其液化天然气产能。项目耗资287.5亿美元，将把该国液化天然气产能从每年7700万吨提高到1.1亿吨，预计将在2025年开始生产。

　　对液化天然气生产商来说，情况似乎特别好，而且随着买家越来越愿意通过锁定较低的长期合同利率来降低未来价格飙升的风险，情况正在好转。这也证实了液化天然气长期增长趋势，尽管国际能源署警告称，如果要实现《巴黎协定》排放目标，液化天然气需求需要很快见顶。

　　根据IEA的说法，如果世界要在2050年实现净零排放，天然气需求必须在2025年至2030年之间达到峰值，并从2030年开始下降。但最近液化天然气和天然气的发展趋势却让人怀疑。企业愿意投入数十亿美元用于新增产能的前期投资，这一事实表明，它们的预期与国际能源署的建议正好相反。不过，摩根士丹利的预测与这些预期一致。

　　摩根士丹利分析师表示，“与投资者预期相反，在能源转型初始阶段，世界将需要更多的液化天然气。天然气竞争技术开发得还不够快，而且在绿色燃料商业化的同时，减少煤炭消耗有显著好处”。

　　这正是欧洲从煤炭转向天然气战略。然而，正如危机所显示的那样，并没有措施来保证可以避免短缺。现在，正是这种将未来短缺可能性降到最低的努力刺激了需求。一旦签署了长期合同，就很难人为地降低需求，以推进巴黎协议议程。

　　王佳晶 摘译自 今日油价

　　原文如下：

　　Demand For LNG Is Only Going To Rise

　　The recent energy crunch in Europe and Asia has reemphasized the importance of natural gas and LNG

　　LNG producers around the world are investing billions in increasing capacity follower the recent surge in demand for the fuel

　　Another effect of the recent rally in natural gas prices will be a surge in long-term contracts

　　Cheniere Energy recently announced plans for a $7-billion expansion of its Sabine Pass liquefaction plant in response to the surge in demand for the superchilled fuel in Asia. India's biggest gas importer said that this strong demand would lead to another surge - in long-term contracts. There may be doubts about long-term oil demand, but LNG's future seems to be bright.

　　Morgan Stanley said earlier this week that it expected demand for liquefied natural gas to grow by between 25 and 50 percent by 2030. Spot prices for LNG over the next ten years, the bank's analysts also said, as quoted by Reuters, could be on average 40 percent higher than the last five-year average. The bank raised its long-term price outlook for the commodity to $10 per million British thermal units.

　　The long-term price forecasts compare to a spot price of $56 per mmBtu in Asia earlier this month, the Reuters report noted. This would explain a move to long-term contracts, as forecast by the chief executive of India's Petronet.

　　"Such a volatility was never seen in the history of LNG markets. We have seen the lowest and the highest prices in the last one year," he said, as quoted by Reuters, at an industry event last week. "Every dark cloud has a silver lining and this (high price) situation is pushing people to have more long-term contracts than normally and that could be the best thing for the gas economy across the world," A. K. Singh said.

　　But for long-term contracts, there needs to be sufficient supply. The world seems to have swung into a deficit of the fuel and it needs new supply of at least 73 million tons by 2030, according to Morgan Stanley analysts. This would cost some $65 billion, and that's on top of $200 billion of LNG projects approved since 2019, Reuters noted.

　　"We think that Asia is the growth driver for our industry for LNG demand for decades to come," said the chief commercial officer of Cheniere Energy last week, as quoted by the Financial Times.

　　Cheniere's $7-billion production expansion is part of a new wave of LNG projects that popped up amid the energy crunch that started in Europe and quickly spread to Asia. An earlier report by the Financial Times cited Tellurian, with plans for a $15-billion facility. NextDecade plans to sanction a new facility in Texas by the end of the year.

　　"Market conditions in Europe and around the world confirm that the call on LNG far exceeds available supply," said NextDecade's chief executive Matt Schatzman. Another executive, the CEO of Venture Global, said U.S. liquefied natural gas will be "critical to meeting this growing need and bringing energy security to Europe and beyond."

　　Meanwhile, the world's largest LNG exporter earlier this month said its production was maxed out as demand continued to outstrip supply. "We are maxed out, as far as we have given all our customers their due quantities," said Saad al-Kaabi, Qatar's energy minister, as quoted by Al Jazeera. "I am unhappy about gas prices being high."

　　Qatar, by the way, is working on a substantial increase in its LNG production capacity. The project, costing $28.75 billion, will boost the country's LNG production capacity from 77 million tons per year to 110 million tons. It should start producing in 2025.

　　The going seems to be particularly good for LNG producers and is getting better as buyers become more willing to reduce the risk of future price spikes by locking in lower rates in long-term contracts. This also confirms the long-term growth trajectory of liquefied natural gas despite warnings from the International Energy Agency that LNG demand needs to peak soon if we are to hit the Paris Agreement emission targets.

　　According to the IEA, gas demand must peak between 2025 and 2030 and start declining from 2030 onwards if the world is to achieve net-zero emission status by 2050. But the latest trends in LNG and gas make this doubtful. The fact that companies are willing to commit billions in upfront investments in new production capacity suggests that they expect quite the opposite of what the IEA advises. The Morgan Stanley forecast chimes in with these expectations.

　　"Contrary to investor expectations, the world is going to need more LNG in the initial phase of the energy transition," the bank's analysts wrote. "Competing technologies for natural gas are not being developed fast enough, and there are significant benefits in reducing coal consumption while greener fuels are commercialised."

　　This was precisely the idea of Europe switching from coal to gas. Yet as the crunch showed, there is no guaranteed hedge against shortages. Now, it is this drive to minimize the chance of future shortages that is spurring demand. Once the long-term contracts are signed, a demand decline would be difficult to effect artificially to advance the Paris Agreement agenda.