到2050年全球氢需求可能会增长6倍

　　中国石化新闻网讯 据烃加工新闻10月28日消息称，Verisk公司的Wood Mackenzie表示，世界主要能源出口国加速能源转型的时机已经成熟，掌握氢贸易可能会有所作为。

　　到2020年，全球能源市场价值高达2万亿美元，造成了超过90亿吨的二氧化碳排放。同年，五大能源出口国——沙特阿拉伯、俄罗斯、澳大利亚、美国和印度尼西亚——生产了超过一半的能源贸易。

　　Wood Mackenzie研究主管Prakash Sharma说："全球能源贸易将遭遇自上世纪70年代以来最严重的中断，欧佩克(OPEC)也将崛起。

　　“除了投资可再生能源以减少排放和加强能源安全，各国和行业现在都在寻找基于电力的燃料和原料，而氢可能会成为规则的改变者。一个关键的区别在于氢在能源交易市场的巨大潜力。在2050年实现净零的世界里，低碳氢及其衍生物将占海运能源贸易的约三分之一。”

　　Wood Mackenzie预测，根据其能源转型展望和加速能源转型(AET)方案，从现在到2050年，全球对氢的需求将增长2至6倍。到2050年，低碳氢需求将达到5.3亿吨，其中近1.5亿吨在海运市场上交易。

　　朱佳妮 摘译自 烃加工新闻

　　原文如下：

　　Wood Mackenzie: Global hydrogen demand could rise six-fold by 2050

　　The time is ripe for the world's major energy exporters to accelerate the energy transition, and mastering the hydrogen trade could make a difference, says Wood Mackenzie, a Verisk business.

　　The global energy market was worth an eye-watering US$2 trillion in 2020, contributing to more than 9 billion t of CO2e emissions. In the same year, the top five energy exporters – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Australia, the US, and Indonesia – produced more than half of all energy traded.

　　Wood Mackenzie research director, Prakash Sharma, said: “The global energy trade is set to see its largest disruption since the 1970s and the rise of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

　　“In addition to investing in renewables to slash emissions and enhance energy security, countries and industries are now looking to electricity-based fuels and feedstocks, and hydrogen could be the gamechanger. A key differentiator is hydrogen’s massive potential in traded energy markets. Low-carbon hydrogen and its derivatives could account for around a third of the seaborne energy trade in a net-zero 2050 world.”

　　Between now and 2050, Wood Mackenzie forecasts global demand for hydrogen to increase between two and six-fold under its Energy Transition Outlook and Accelerated Energy Transition (AET) scenarios. Low-carbon hydrogen demand reaches as much as 530 million t by 2050, with almost 150 million t of that traded on the seaborne market.​