来源：中国石化新闻网 时间：2022-05-23 09:04
休斯敦Lipow Oil Associates总裁Andrew Lipow周四对路透社表示：“市场每小时都对各种不同的头条新闻做出反应，而石油市场每天的走势变得更加夸张。”当天早些时候，原油价格暴跌，美元走弱，油价随之上涨。
ING策略师Warren Patterson和Wenyu Yao周四写道：“虽然炼油厂仍有一些增加运行的空间（本周利用率增加1.8个百分点至91.8%），但随着我们进入驾驶季节，汽油需求应该会增加，这表明我们将看到美国汽油市场进一步紧缩。在这种情况下，我们可能会看到美国政府面临进一步压力，试图控制汽油价格。”
祝精燕 摘译自 油价网
Oil Market Fears Recession More Than Tight Fuel Inventories
The oil market saw another volatile week as bullish and bearish catalysts collided.
There is a growing fear that a potential recession could weigh heavily on oil demand.
Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year lows.
The oil market wrapped up another volatile week of hectic trading, swinging up and down in a $5 a barrel range as it was pulled between bullish and bearish catalysts in both directions every day. Both benchmarks hit an eight-week high early on Tuesday, only to pull back later in the day and join on Wednesday the sell-off on Wall Street triggered by renewed investor concerns about a possible recession as top retailers flagged soaring costs and supply chain bottlenecks in their quarterly earnings reports.
In the week to May 20, oil market participants paid more attention to “recession fear” headlines than to the weekly U.S. petroleum status report, which showed another draw in gasoline inventories and higher implied domestic demand, which—despite record-high gasoline prices in America—is only set to rise further as we enter the summer driving season.
“The market is reacting to all sorts of different headlines hour to hour, and the movement in oil markets on a day-by-day basis getting even more exaggerated,” Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates in Houston, told Reuters on Thursday, when oil settled higher after the U.S. dollar weakened, following a plunge in crude prices in earlier trading on the same day.
Overall, the market appeared more concerned about the rising odds of a recession rather than falling U.S. fuel inventories to multi-year low levels for this time of the year. Investors and speculators pulled back from oil, with crude being a riskier asset, as concerns about a more pronounced global economic slowdown—and even a recession—intensified and dampened risk appetite.
However, while the market is focused on gloomier economic outlooks, it has ignored—at least this past week—the critically low U.S. fuel inventories.
Not that oil demand has soared so much. It’s the capacity for supply, globally and in the U.S, that is now a few million barrels per day lower than it was before the pandemic. Rising demand since economies reopened and people returned to travel, combined with lower refining capacity and very tight distillate markets have drawn down U.S. product inventories to below seasonal averages and at multi-year lows, with record-low inventories reported on the East Coast.
Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 4.8 million barrels in the week ending May 13, and are about 8% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said in its latest weekly inventory report on May 18. Implied gasoline demand, measured as products supplied, rose, despite record-high prices across the United States.
Gasoline inventories in the U.S. are at their lowest levels for this time of the year since 2014, with stocks on the East Coast even tighter, at their lowest since 2011 for this time of the year.
“While refiners have some room to increase runs (utilization rates increased by 1.8 percentage points to 91.8% over the week), gasoline demand should increase as we move into driving season, which suggests that we will see further tightness in the US gasoline market. In this case, we are likely to see further pressure on the US administration to try rein in gasoline prices,” ING strategists Warren Patterson and Wenyu Yao wrote on Thursday.
According to Bjarne Schieldrop, Chief analyst, Commodities, at SEB:
“The global refining system is severely stretched following reductions in capacities in 2020/21, reviving oil product demand. We are now heading into summer driving season with much higher gasoline demand with a start-out of very low inventories.”
Concerns about economic growth, and consequently, demand for fuels, are yet to be reflected in actual data, Saxo Bank said on Thursday.
“On the ground, however, this worry has yet to be reflected with inventories of crude oil and gasoline still falling while US implied gasoline demand, despite record prices, remains robust.”
“Until then, the market is likely to focus on the general level of risk appetite, which is currently challenged,” Saxo Bank’s strategy team noted.