中国石化新闻网讯 据管道&天然气杂志网10月25日报道，根据美国能源情报署(EIA)报道，9月份美国干天然气产量达到创纪录的988亿立方英尺/天，天然气库存显著增加，但仍低于平均储存水平。

创纪录的产量使9月份天然气库存量达到4280亿立方英尺，比5年(2017-2021年)平均水平高出20%。尽管增加量高于平均水平，但月底天然气库存为3.135万亿立方英尺，比5年平均水平低8%，即2800亿立方英尺。

9月份，美国LNG日均出口量为101亿立方英尺，因为除了自由港停产外，其他液化终端几乎满负荷运行。

自2021年2月以来，天然气12个月滚动平均需求已经超过供应，这导致亨利枢纽现货价格在2021年6月至2022年7月期间上涨了一倍。自2021年6月以来，月度库存一直低于五年平均水平，但2021年12月例外，当时异常温暖的天气导致库存提取量低于正常水平。

EIA预计，亨利枢纽现货价格将持续上涨，直到2023年第二季度，届时预计12个月的滚动平均供应量将接近平均需求，库存将高于五年平均水平。

由于天然气价格和消费量的上升，据EIA分析师预计，使用天然气作为主要取暖燃料的家庭今年冬天(2022年10月至2023年3月)的花费将比去年冬天多28%。近一半的美国家庭主要使用天然气取暖。我们预计冬季家庭平均消费量为5.8万立方英尺，较去年冬季增长5%。

EIA预测，随着生产商继续增加供应，亨利枢纽现货价格将在2023年上半年开始下降。在2022年前三季度，美国干天然气产量稳步增长。EIA预测，干天然气产量将继续增加，在2022年第4季度日均为991亿立方英尺。

天然气期货合约允许在未来的特定日期(对应于每个月初)对天然气进行交割。天然气第1至13个月的价差代表了从现在起1个月后交付的天然气销售价格与从现在起13个月后交付的天然气销售价格之间的差异。9月份，这个价差平均为2.32美元/百万英热单位，较8月份创下的同类纪录高点3.45美元/百万英热单位下降了1.13美元/百万英热单位。自4月以来，此类价差每月平均超过2.00美元/百万英热单位。在此期间，天然气价格一直居高不下，平均为7.74美元/百万英热单位，天然气库存仍比五年平均水平低8%或更多。

EIA分析师预计，天然气现货价格将在2022年底保持高位，然后在2023年下降。他们预测亨利枢纽中心现货均价在2022年第4季度将达7.4美元/百万英热单位，然后随着美国天然气产量的增加，到2023年将降至6美元/百万英热单位以下。

郝芬 译自 管道&天然气杂志网

原文如下：

U.S. Gas Production Hits Record High, Storage Still Trails

U.S. dry natural gas production reached a record-high 98.8 Bcf/d in September and significantly increased natural gas stocks but still fell short of average storage levels, the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported.

The record production contributed to September’s natural gas stock builds of 428 Bcf, which were 20% higher than the five-year (2017–2021) average. Despite the above-average builds, natural gas inventories at the end of the month were 3,135 Bcf, which is 8%, or 280 Bcf, below the five-year average.

U.S. LNG exports averaged 10.1 Bcf/d in September, as liquefaction terminals other than the off-line Freeport terminal operated near full capacity.

The 12-month rolling average of natural gas demand has exceeded supply since February 2021, which has contributed to an elevated Henry Hub spot price that doubled between June 2021 and July 2022. Monthly storage inventories have remained below the five-year average since June 2021, except for in December 2021, when unusually warm weather led to lower-than-normal storage withdrawals.

The EIA expects the Henry Hub spot price to remain elevated until the second quarter of 2023 when it forecasts the 12-month rolling average of supply to rise closer to average demand and inventories to rise above the five-year average.

As a result of higher forecast natural gas prices and consumption, EIA analysts expect households that use natural gas as their primary space heating fuel will spend 28% more this winter (October 2022 through March 2023) than they spent last winter. Nearly half of all U.S. households heat primarily with natural gas. We expect average household winter consumption to be 58 thousand cubic feet (Mcf), up 5% from last winter.

The EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will start to decline in the first half of 2023 as producers continue to increase supply. In the first three quarters of 2022, U.S. dry natural gas production grew steadily. The EIA forecast that dry natural gas production to continue to increase, averaging 99.1 Bcf/d in 4Q22.

Natural gas futures contracts allow natural gas to be bought and sold for delivery at specific dates in the future corresponding to the start of each month. The natural gas 1st–13th month spread represents the difference between the price of natural gas sold for delivery 1 month from now compared to natural gas sold for delivery 13 months from now. The natural gas 1st–13th month price spread averaged $2.32/MMBtu in September, down nearly $1.13 from the record-high monthly average of $3.45/MMBtu set in August. The 1st–13th price spread has averaged over $2.00/MMBtu every month since April. During that time, natural gas prices have remained elevated, averaging $7.74/MMBtu, and natural gas inventories remained 8% or more below the five-year average.

EIA analysts expect natural gas spot prices to remain elevated in late 2022 before falling in 2023. They forecast the Henry Hub spot price to average about $7.40/MMBtu in 4Q22, then fall below $6.00/MMBtu in 2023 as U.S. natural gas production rises.