美国的能源政策明确表明了逐步淘汰化石燃料的意图

这迫使美国炼油商谨慎行事，以维持运营

这也导致了美国炼油产能的大量损失

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网11月21日报道，柴油短缺背后的一个未被报道的因素是，自疫情开始以来，美国炼油能力的大量损失。今天本文将讨论导致这种损失的因素。

根据美国能源信息署(EIA)最近公布的数据，在疫情暴发之初，美国炼油企业切实可行的炼油产能为1900万桶/天。这是EIA有史以来报告的最高数字。  

到去年12月，这一数字降至1790万桶/天，在不到两年的时间里损失了110万桶/天的炼油产能。  

这是许多人需要帮助理解的关于炼油的事情。这是一个盛衰交替的行业，而这些炼油厂没有预言未来的方法。当它们获得巨额利润时，就会被广泛报道，但它们也经常遭受巨额亏损。

美国的能源政策已经明确了逐步淘汰化石燃料的意图。如果你是一家预计将出现数十亿美元亏损的炼油厂，而你需要大量投资以保证炼油厂的安全运营并遵守法律，那么你很有可能直接做出关闭的决定。

有两个极好的信息来源可以详细说明哪些炼油厂关闭了，以及它们关闭的原因。首先是EIA。 

在今年夏天期间，EIA报告称，美国炼油厂产能在2021年连续第二年下降，其间他们讨论了2021年关闭的主要炼油厂之一。他们还展示了近年来美国炼油厂产能变化的图表。

但本文作者最近偶然发现了一个更详细的资料。在一条推特帖子中，路透社石油和能源记者劳拉·萨尼科拉强调了从疫情开始到今年6月关闭的个别炼油厂。她报告了9家炼油厂的关闭情况，但关闭原因是一致的。 由于疫情导致需求减少，大多数炼油厂都关闭了。

但是，这些炼油企业不是赚了数十亿美元吗? 这难道不是让这些炼油厂继续运营的理由吗? 关于这一论点有两点需要说明。 

首先，作为一家炼油公司可能会赚上数十亿美元，但单个炼油厂却可能持续亏损。我们已经看到这种情况在美国东海岸的炼油商身上发生了很多，他们无法从美国页岩油热潮中获得更便宜的石油。 他们不得不继续在国际市场上采购原油，这使他们处于竞争劣势。

其次，目前炼油企业的利润只是一个瞬时影像。如今，美国对石油的需求已经基本恢复。事实上，美国对馏分油需求已经恢复到大流行前的水平。  

但是，这些炼油企业正在规划未来。他们正在研究石油产品的长期需求预测。这些预测表明，随着时间的推移，化石燃料需求将不断下降。因此，他们不想投资数十亿美元，因为这可能需要10年或更长时间才能收回投资。

简而言之，这就是为什么美国正在失去炼油能力。美国需要在能源政策上做出一些改变来解决这个问题。 

李峻 编译自 油价网

原文如下：

Why Is The U.S. Losing Oil Refining Capacity?

·     The U.S. energy policy is clear about its intention to phase out fossil fuels.

·     This has forced refiners to exercise caution in order to stay afloat. 

·     It has also resulted in a loss of U.S. refining capacity. 

One of the under-reported factors behind the ongoing diesel shortage is the loss of U.S. refining capacity since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic. Today I will discuss the factors that led to this loss.

According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), at the beginning of the pandemic U.S. refiners had 19.0 million barrels per day (BPD) of operable refining capacity (Source). This was the highest number ever reported by the EIA.

By December 2021, that number had fallen to 17.9 million BPD — a loss of 1.1 million BPD of capacity in less than two years.

Here is the thing many need help understanding about refining. It is a boom-and-bust business, and these refiners do not have crystal balls. It is widely reported when they make huge profits, but they also regularly endure huge losses.

U.S. energy policy has been clear about the intent to phase out fossil fuels. If you are a refiner forecasting billions in losses — and you require massive investments in order to keep your refinery operating safely and in compliance with the laws — you may very well simply make the decision to close down.

There are two excellent sources of information detailing which refineries closed, and why they closed. The first is the EIA.

During the summer, the EIA reported U.S. refinery capacity decreased during 2021 for second consecutive year, in which they discussed one of the major closures in 2021. They also showed this excellent graphic of how refinery capacity has evolved in recent years:

But I stumbled upon a more detailed look recently. In a Twitter thread, Laura Sanicola, an oil and energy reporter at Reuters, highlighted the individual refinery closures from the start of the pandemic through June 2022:

She reports on nine refinery closures, but the theme is consistent. Most of the refineries were closed due to demand loss as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.

But, aren’t these companies earning billions of dollars? Isn’t that an argument for keeping these refineries open? There are two points to make on that argument.

First, it is possible to make billions of dollars as a company, but to lose money consistently in an individual refinery. We have seen this happen a lot with East Coast refiners that didn’t have access to cheaper oil from the U.S. shale boom. They had to continue to procure crude oil on the international markets, and that put them at a competitive disadvantage.

There are two points to make on that argument.. Today, U.S. demand for petroleum has largely recovered. In fact, distillate demand has recovered to pre-pandemic levels.

But, these companies are projecting the future. They are looking at long-term demand forecasts for petroleum products. Those projections indicate declining fuel demand over time. Thus, they do not want to invest billions of dollars that could take a decade or more to pay off.

That, in a nutshell, is why we have lost refining capacity in the U.S. It’s going to take some changes in our energy policy to address this.