中国石化新闻网讯 据烃加工网2022年12月29日报道，据国际航空运输协会（IATA）估计，2022年SAF（可持续航空燃料）的产量将达到至少3亿升，比2021年的1亿升产量增加了200%。更乐观的计算估计，2022年的总产量可能达到4.5亿升。这两种情况都使SAF行业处于产能和产量呈指数增长的边缘，到2030年，在正确的支持政策下，产量将达到30亿升的临界点。
航空公司承诺到2050年实现二氧化碳净零排放，并将SAF视为关键贡献者。目前估计，SAF将占减排所需的65%，到2050年，每年需要4500亿升的生产能力。
在2022年10月举行的国际民用航空组织(ICAO)第41届大会上，各国政府就气候问题达成了长期目标(LTAG)，现在各国政府在航空脱碳方面拥有相同的目标，并对SAF的成功感兴趣。
IATA总干事威利·沃尔什表示，2022年市场上的SAF数量至少是2021年的三倍。航空公司用掉了每一滴，即使价格非常高！如果有更多，就会被购买。这清楚地表明，这是一个供应问题，仅靠市场力量不足以解决问题。各国政府现在都有相同的2050年净零目标，需要为SAF制定全面的生产激励措施。正是他们成功地将经济转型为可再生能源电力所做的。这也是航空业脱碳所需要的。
迄今为止，使用SAF运营的商业航班已超过45万架次，越来越多的航空公司与生产商签署了承购协议，这向市场发出了一个明确的信号，即需要更多的SAF，到2022年为止，已经宣布了约40份承购协议。
在实现氢等替代能源的商业化选择之前，航空的SAF供应将全部来自生物燃料精炼厂。这些炼油厂生产可再生生物柴油、沼气和SAF，其炼油能力预计到2025年将比2022年增长400%以上。航空业面临的挑战是确保从这一能力中获得SAF的供应。为了成功地做到这一点，政府需要实施SAF生产激励措施，类似于已经实施的沼气和生物柴油生产激励措施。
郝芬 译自 烃加工网
原文如下：
2022 SAF production increases 200%
The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates that SAF production will reach at least 300 MM liters in 2022—a 200% increase on 2021 production of 100 MM liters. More optimistic calculations estimate total production in 2022 could reach 450 MM liters. Both scenarios position the SAF industry on the verge of an exponential capacity and production ramp-up toward an identified tipping point of 30 B liters by 2030, with the right supporting policies.
Airlines are committed to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050 and see SAF as a key contributor. Current estimates expect SAF to account for 65% of the mitigation needed for this, requiring a production capacity of 450 billion liters annually in 2050.
Having agreed to a Long Term Aspirational Goal (LTAG) on climate at the 41st Assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) in October 2022, governments now share the same target for aviation’s decarbonization and interest in the success of SAF.
“There was at least triple the amount of SAF in the market in 2022 than in 2021. And airlines used every drop, even at very high prices! If more was available, it would have been purchased. That makes it clear that it is a supply issue and that market forces alone are insufficient to solve it. Governments, who now share the same 2050 net zero goal, need to put in place comprehensive production incentives for SAF. It is what they did to successfully transition economies to renewable sources of electricity. And it is what aviation needs to decarbonize,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
To date, over 450,000 commercial flights have been operated using SAF, and the growing number of airlines signing offtake agreements with producers sends a clear signal to the markets that SAF is needed in larger quantities, and so far in 2022, around 40 offtake agreements have been announced.
Incentive-based policies
Until we have commercialized options for alternative power sources such as hydrogen, all of aviation’s SAF supply will be derived from biofuel refineries. These refineries produce renewable biodiesel, biogas, as well as SAF and their refining capacity is set to grow by over 400% by 2025 compared to 2022. The challenge for aviation is to secure its supply of SAF from this capacity. And to do that successfully governments need to put in place SAF production incentives similar to what is already in place for biogas and biodiesel.
