中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2023年1月12日报道，根据韦斯特伍德全球能源集团一份新的高影响力钻井报告，2022年油价上涨并没有导致全球更多的油气勘探活动。报告指出，2023年高影响力井的数量看起来与2020年至2022年一致，“目前预计全球今年将完成75至85口高影响力井”。
当被要求解释这一现象时，韦斯特伍德全球能源集团的全球E&A主管格雷姆·巴格利概述说，企业似乎正在采取慎重的反应。
巴格利告诉美国钻井网站：“从历史上看，前一年的高影响力勘探钻井支出和活动与油价之间存在很强相关性。”
巴格利补充说：“自过去两年以来，石油和天然气价格出现了高度波动，由于这一时期需求和供应的波动，2020年4月的平均每桶18美元至2022年6月的平均每桶123美元不等。”
巴格利继续说道：“各企业似乎对此采取了谨慎的应对措施，并将大宗商品价格高企期间产生的大部分现金用于向股东支付股息和减少债务，而不是按比例增加资本支出，包括勘探支出。”
韦斯特伍德全球能源集团负责人还告诉美国钻井网站，由于能源转型、相关需求减少的可能性以及未来探明储量的风险，各企业对长期油价持更为保守的看法。
高影响力勘探的重点区域
根据韦斯特伍德的报告，2023年南美洲仍将是高影响力勘探钻井的关键地区，“特别是在苏里南-圭亚那盆地和巴西近海”。报告还强调，阿根廷今年将钻第一口深水井，今年北美的钻井活动预计将反弹，此前北美在2022年经历了平静的一年，“当时只完成了9口高影响井”。
报告称：“这将包括美国墨西哥湾的5口高影响力井，墨西哥近海的更多承诺井，以及加拿大近海Orphan盆地的关键边缘盆地测试。”
报告指出，非洲有望在纳米比亚近海新兴的Orange盆地，以及摩洛哥、加蓬和莫桑比克近海的边缘测试中发现新井。报告称，东地中海地区的高影响力勘探钻井最近也有所增加，预计将持续到2023年，约有5口高影响力井，报告补充说，与前一年相比，欧洲、中东和亚太地区的高影响力钻井活动预计在2023年略有下降。
报告显示，2022年全球共完钻了81口高影响力井。报告强调，道达尔能源公司在纳米比亚近海的Orange盆地、金星勘探区、格拉夫勘探区和Shell勘探区的La Rona获得了突破性发现，初步估计已发现的石油和天然气资源量可能超过35亿桶油当量。
报告称：“继金星勘探区发现之后，2022年在哥伦比亚近海圭吉拉盆地的乌丘瓦获得了第二大发现，发现了3万亿至5万亿立方英尺的可采天然气储量。”
报告补充说：“圭亚那有9个潜在的商业发现，苏里南有1个，占已发现资源总量的21%左右。”
高影响力钻井公司
根据报告，去年全球76家公司参与了81口高影响力井的钻探作业，其中46家公司只参与了一口高影响力井的钻探作业。
报告强调，去年全球最活跃的高影响力勘探公司是埃克森美孚公司和赫斯公司等，这三家公司是获得圭亚那近海斯塔布鲁克区块许可证的合作伙伴。道达尔能源公司和壳牌公司分别列第四和第五，卡塔尔能源公司列第六。
当被问及2023年高影响力钻井公司的名单时，韦斯特伍德勘探研究经理Jamie Collard告诉美国钻井网站，今年高影响力钻井公司的格局将继续由超级石油巨头和国家石油公司主导。
“埃克森美孚公司和壳牌公司预计将是2023年最活跃的高影响力钻井公司，两家公司都将钻探超过15口高影响力井。”Collard如是说。
“埃克森美孚公司的高影响力钻井活动将主要在圭亚那近海，而壳牌公司将在10个不同的国家钻探高影响力井。埃尼公司预计将排名第三，其次是赫斯公司、道达尔能源公司、卡塔尔能源公司和马来西亚国家石油公司。”
李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站
原文如下：
Higher Oil Prices Have Not Led to More Exploration
Higher oil prices in 2022 have not fed through into more exploration, according to a new high impact drilling report from Westwood Global Energy Group, which noted that high impact well numbers in 2023 look to be in line with 2020-2022, “with 75-85 high impact wells currently expected to complete in the year”.
When asked to explain the phenomenon, Westwood’s head of global E&A, Graeme Bagley, outlined that companies appear to be taking a measured response.
“Historically, we have seen a strong correlation between high impact exploration drilling spend and activity and the oil price in the previous year,” Bagley told Rigzone.
“Oil (and gas prices) have seen high levels of volatility since in the last two years, varying between $18 per barrel average in April 2020 and $123 per barrel average in June 2022 as a consequence of fluctuations in both demand and supply over the period,” Bagley added.
“Companies appear to be taking a measured response to this and have used much of the cash generated during periods of high commodity prices to provide pay-outs to shareholders and reduce debt rather than increase capex, including exploration spend, proportionately,” Bagley continued.
The Westwood head also told Rigzone that companies are taking a more conservative view on the long term oil price in response to the energy transition, the potential for an associated reduction in demand and the risk of leaving future discovered barrels in the ground.
Key Regions for High Impact Exploration
According to Westwood’s report, South America will continue to be a key region for high impact exploration in 2023, “particularly in the Suriname-Guyana Basin and offshore Brazil”. The report also highlighted that Argentina will see its first ever deepwater well drilled this year and that activity in North America is expected to rebound in 2023 following a quiet year in 2022 “when only nine high impact wells completed”.
“This will include more than five high impact wells in the U.S. GoM, further commitment wells offshore Mexico, and a key frontier basin test in the Orphan Basin offshore Canada,” the report stated.
Africa is expected to see wells in the emerging Orange Basin offshore Namibia, as well as frontier tests offshore Morocco, Gabon, and Mozambique, the report noted. The Eastern Mediterranean has also seen a recent up-tick in high impact exploration drilling, which will continue into 2023 with around five high impact wells expected, according to the report, which added that high impact drilling activity in Europe, the Middle East and Asia Pacific is expected to fall slightly in 2023 compared to the previous year.
The report revealed that 81 high impact wells were drilled in 2022. Breakthrough discoveries were seen in the Orange Basin, offshore Namibia, at Venus by TotalEnergies and Graff and La Rona by Shell opened new oil plays with preliminary estimates of potentially more than 3.5 billion barrels of oil equivalent of discovered oil and gas resources, the report highlighted.
“After Venus, the second largest discovery in 2022 was made at Uchuva, in the Guijira Basin offshore Colombia, which discovered 3-5 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas,” the report stated.
“Nine potentially commercial discoveries were made in Guyana and one in Suriname, which accounted for ~21 percent of the total discovered resource,” the report added.
High Impact Drillers
Seventy-six companies participated in the 81 high impact wells drilled in 2022, according to the report, which revealed that 46 companies participated in only a single well.
The most active high impact explorers were Exxon and Hess, the three partners in the Stabroek licence offshore Guyana, the report highlighted. TotalEnergies and Shell ranked in fourth and fifth place, followed by Qatar Energy in sixth place.
When asked what the 2023 high impact drilling company table would look like, Jamie Collard, Westwood’s Exploration Research Manager, told Rigzone that the company landscape for high impact exploration will continue to be dominated by supermajors and NOCs this year.
“ExxonMobil and Shell are expected to be the most active, both drilling more than 15 high impact wells,” Collard said.
“ExxonMobil’s activity will be mainly offshore Guyana, whilst Shell will be more widespread potentially drilling high impact wells in 10 different countries. Eni is expected to rank in third place, followed by Hess, TotalEnergies, Qatar Energy and Petronas,” Collard added.
