中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博新闻社2023年1月17日报道，欧佩克预计，全球石油市场供应和需求将在今年第一季度保持平衡。欧佩克最高官员表示，他对全球经济前景持“谨慎乐观”的态度。
总部位于维也纳的欧佩克秘书处发布的一份报告显示，今年前3个月，欧佩克将需要平均每天向全球市场供应2885万桶原油，比去年12月日减约12万桶。
欧佩克及其盟友去年年底做出了大幅减产的决定，称这对保持原油市场平衡是必要的。上述预测进一步证实了这一决定。这些措施帮助支撑了国际油价接近每桶85美元，交易商们正在衡量全球重新开放经济的努力。
欧佩克秘书长盖斯周二早些时候在达沃斯世界经济论坛上表示，随着旅游和经济活动的恢复，欧佩克“看到了来自亚洲的绿色迹象”。不过，盖斯警告称，发达经济体的经济放缓和持续通胀给此前景蒙上了阴影。
他补充说，一个由欧佩克+联盟主要能源部长组成的小组将于2月1日举行监测会议，以评估市场状况，但现在说他们可能会做出什么决定还为时过早。阿拉伯联合酋长国能源部长马兹鲁伊周一表示，石油市场是“平衡的”。
报告显示，进入第二季度，如果欧佩克继续以目前的速度生产原油，市场可能会面临轻微的盈余，对欧佩克原油的预期日需求将降至2834万桶。
欧佩克预计，今年全球石油日需求将增加220万桶，达到平均每天1.0177亿桶，而欧佩克以外的原油供应将日增150万桶。这一估计数字与上个月的报告基本持平。
李峻 编译自 彭博新闻社
原文如下：
OPEC: global oil market to be “balanced” Q1 2023
OPEC expects global oil supply and demand to be in balance in the first quarter. Its top official said he’s “cautiously optimistic” about the economic outlook.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will need to provide an average of 28.85 million bpd in the first three months of the year, roughly 120,000 bpd less than it pumped last month, according to a report from the group’s Vienna-based secretariat.
The estimates provide further validation for the substantial production curbs OPEC and its allies made late last year, saying they were necessary to keep crude markets in equilibrium. The measures have helped to support international oil prices near $85 a bbl as traders gauge global attempts to reopen its economy.
Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos earlier on Tuesday, OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al-Ghais said the group is “seeing signs of green” from Asia as travel and economic activity resume. Still, economic slowdown and persistent inflation in advanced economies are clouding the outlook, he warned.
A panel of key OPEC+ ministers will hold a monitoring meeting to assess market conditions on Feb. 1, but it’s too early to say what they might decide, Al-Ghais added. United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said on Monday that oil markets are “balanced.”
Heading into the second quarter, the report indicated that OPEC may face a slight surplus if it continues to produce at current rates, with expected demand for the group’s crude dipping to 28.34 million bpd.
For the year, OPEC predicts that world oil demand will increase by 2.2 million bpd to an average of 101.77 million a day, while supplies outside of the group will expand by 1.5 million bpd. The estimates are largely unchanged from last month’s report.
