国际能源署（IEA）预计全球石油市场将从今年上半年的过剩转向今年下半年的短缺
亚洲复苏预计将推动全球石油需求创新高，全球石油日需求量将达到1.02亿桶
IEA表示，在目前仍有大量供应过剩的情况下增加库存，能在需求激增时缓解紧张局势
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年3月15日报道，国际能源署(IEA)周三表示，全球石油市场将从今年上半年的供应过剩转向今年下半年的供应短缺，原因是亚洲经济反弹将推动全球石油需求升至创纪录高位。
IEA今天在其最新一期的《石油市场报告》中表示，今年全球石油日需求增长将急剧加速，从第一季度估计的71万桶增长到今年第四季度的260万桶。
在今年第一季度至今年第四季度期间，全球石油日需求将激增320万桶，使今年全球石油日均增长达到200万桶。
IEA称，今年全球石油日需求量将达到创纪录的1.02亿桶，与上月报告的预估基本持平。
IEA在今天的报告中表示：“航空运输的反弹和亚洲被压抑需求的释放主导了这个复苏。”
欧佩克+集团以外的国家将引领石油供应增长，这一增长将足以满足今年上半年全球石油需求。然而，IEA指出，“当季节性趋势和亚洲的复苏将推动需求达到创纪录水平时”，非欧佩克+今年下半年石油产量增长预计将达不到目标。
即使产能大国3月份日减50万桶原油产量，全球石油供应“在今年上半年应该会轻松超过需求”。
IEA表示：“今年下半年，预计亚洲将把全球石油需求推至创纪录水平，随着市场转向供应不足，今天增加库存将缓解紧张局势。”
IEA表示：“即使产能大国能够将石油产量维持在战前水平，这也将是一次挑战。”
李峻 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
IEA: Global Oil Demand Will Outstrip Supply In Late 2023
· The IEA expects oil markets to swing from a surplus in the first half of 2023 to a deficit in the latter part of 2023.
· Asian recovery is expected to drive global oil demand to record highs, with oil demand hitting 102 million barrels per day.
· The IEA says that building stocks today while there is still a significant supply overhang will ease tensions when demand surges.
The oil market is set to swing from a comfortable supply overhang in the first half of 2023 to a deficit in the latter part of the year as the economic rebound in Asia will push global oil demand to a record high, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday.
World oil demand growth is set for a sharp acceleration over the course of this year, from an estimated increase of 710,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first quarter to a growth of 2.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2023, the IEA said in its Oil Market Report today.
Between Q1 2023 and Q4 2023, global oil demand is set to surge by 3.2 million bpd, taking average growth for the year to 2 million bpd.
Global oil demand is set to reach a record 102 million bpd this year, the agency said, leaving its projections from last month’s report largely unchanged.
“Rebounding air traffic and the release of pent-up Asian demand dominate the recovery,” the IEA said in today’s report.
Countries outside the OPEC+ group will lead supply growth, and this growth will be enough to meet demand in the first half of 2023. However, non-OPEC+ growth is expected to fall short in the second half “when seasonal trends and Asian recovery are set to boost demand to record levels,” the agency noted.
Even with the largger producer’s 500,000-bpd production cut for March, global oil supply “should comfortably exceed demand in the first half of the year.”
“Building stocks today will ease tensions as the market swings into deficit during the second half of the year when Asia is expected to drive world oil demand to record levels,” the IEA said.
“Matching that increase would be a challenge even if the largger producer were able to maintain production at pre-war levels,” the IEA said.
