中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网3月14日消息称，越来越多交易员猜测，美联储可能会在本月晚些时候避免加息，因为担心引发另一场崩溃。
这家专注于科技的银行倒闭引发的金融市场动荡，增加了美联储进一步推迟加息的可能性。
直到上周，投资者还预计这家世界上最有影响力的央行将在3月22日恢复更大幅度的加息，并将利率上调50个基点。
过去一个月左右，一批比预期更热的数据表明，美国人很好地承受了美联储的利率冲击，这放大了通胀长期高于央行2%目标的风险。
联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）已经以自20世纪80年代以来的最快速度提高了借贷成本，帮助将通胀从去年夏天超过9%的峰值降至最低。
预计明天公布的新通胀数据将显示，物价上涨率将保持在6%左右。
尽管这一系列的上调有助于缓解物价压力，但却使收益率大幅上升，暴露出金融体系的脆弱性。
高盛表示：“鉴于银行系统的压力，我们不再期望联邦公开市场委员会在3月22日的下一次会议上宣布加息（而我们之前的预期是加息25个基点）。”
他们补充道：“我们对联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将在5月、6月和7月加息25个基点的预期保持不变，现在预计最终利率为5.25%至5.5%，尽管我们看到路径存在相当大的不确定性。”
根据《华尔街日报》美元指数，较低的峰值利率预期给美元带来了下行压力，美元兑一篮子可比货币贬值近1%。
就在上周，鲍威尔在美国国会的两份证词中告诉投资者，要在高于此前预测的利率峰值定价。
投资者现在押注，美联储将不得不避免对企业和家庭施加更多压力，以防止金融系统中未知的压力再次爆发。
同样，市场下调了对英国最高利率的预期，现在预计英国央行将选择在3月23日最后上调25个基点。
梁金燕 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Goldman Betting On Fed To Skip March Rate Hike
Speculation is growing among traders that the US Federal Reserve could refrain from hiking interest rates later this month for fear of triggering another Silicon Valley Bank-style collapse.
Turmoil in financial markets sparked by the tech-focused lender’s collapse has raised the likelihood Fed chair Jerome Powell and co may hold off raising rates any further.
Up until last week, investors had expected the world’s most influential central bank to return to steeper moves and increase rates 50 basis points higher on 22 March.
A batch of hotter than expected data over the last month or so indicated Americans were withstanding the Fed’s rates barrage reasonably well, which amplified a longer run risk of inflation staying above the central bank’s two percent target.
The federal open market committee (FOMC) has already lifted borrowing costs at the fastest pace since the 1980s, helping to bring inflation down from a more than nine percent peak last summer.
New inflation numbers out tomorrow are expected to show the rate of price increases to stay elevated at around six percent.
Although the series of hikes has helped tackle price pressures, it has sent yields up sharply, exposing fragility in the financial system.
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed as a result of a series of bets on interest rates staying lower, souring due to the Fed aggressively attacking inflation.
“In light of the stress in the banking system, we no longer expect the FOMC to deliver a rate hike at its next meeting on March 22 (vs. our previous expectation of a 25bp hike),” Goldman Sachs said.
“We have left unchanged our expectation that the FOMC will deliver 25bp hikes in May, June, and July and now expect a 5.25-5.5 percent terminal rate, though we see considerable uncertainty about the path,” they added.
Lower peak rate expectations put downward pressure on the US dollar today, with the greenback weakening nearly one percent against a basket of comparable currencies, according to the Wall Street Journal’s dollar index.
Just last week, Powell in two testimonies at the US congress had told investors to price in a higher than previously forecast rate peak.
Investors are now betting the Fed will have to hold off from heaping more pressure on businesses and households to prevent unknown pressures in the financial system from flaring up again.
Similarly, markets trimmed their peak UK rate expectations and now reckon the Bank of England will opt for a final 25 basis point move on 23 March.
