中国石化新闻网讯 据钻井地带网站4月5日报道，每桶79.64美元——这是145位油气领域高管在达拉斯联储银行能源最新调查中被问及对2023年底WTI价格预期时回答的均值。

调查中的最低预测值为每桶50美元，而最高预测值为每桶160美元。在调查数据汇集期间，即3月15日至3月23日，WTI价格平均为每桶68.51美元。

在2022年第四季度达拉斯联储银行能源调查中，来自150家石油和天然气公司的高管在被问及他们对2023年年底WTI价格的预期时，给出的均值是每桶83.63美元。去年那次调查中的最低预测值为每桶65美元，而最高预测值为每桶160美元。

在3月2日发布的最新短期能源展望（STEO）中，美国能源信息署（EIA）预计，2023年WTI现货价格平均为每桶77.10美元，2024年为每桶71.57美元。

而在3月份发布的STEO中，EIA预计2023年第一季度WTI现货价格平均为78.05美元/桶，第二季度为78美元/桶，第三季度为77美元/桶，第四季度为75.35美元/桶；2024年第一季度为74美元/桶，第二季度为72.34美元/桶，第三季度为70.69美元/桶，第四季度为69.36美元/桶。

EIA的下一份STEO报告将在4月11日发布。

在4月4日发给钻井地带网站的一份报告中，渣打银行分析师预测2023年WTI均价为每桶88美元，2024年每桶95美元，2025年每桶106美元。

报告显示，分析师预计2023年第三季度WTI均价为每桶85美元，第四季度为每桶91美元；2024年第一季度为每桶89美元，第二季度为每桶91美元，第三季度为每桶95美元。

在撰写本报告时，WTI原油价格为每桶80.85美元。迄今为止，该商品在3月17日录得2023年最低收盘价为每桶66.74美元，然后在4月3日升至每桶80美元以上。2023年迄今为止，WTI价格的最高收盘价出现在1月26日，为每桶87.47美元。

增长停滞

这些油气公司高管对此次达拉斯联储能源调查作出回应和反馈表示，2023年第一季度的石油和天然气行业增长出现停滞。

“接近零的读数表明活动与上一季度基本持平，打破了两年多来增长上升的局面。”该调查称。

调查还概述说，勘探和生产公司的高管们表示，2023年一季度的油气生产增速比2022年第四季度要慢。据称，石油生产指数仍然是积极的，但数值从去年第四季度的25.8下降到今年第一季度的10.5，而天然气生产指数从29.4下降到7.4。

调查指出，企业连续第九个季度报告成本上升，公司前景指数在第一季度转为负数，下降27点至-14.1。调查说，总体前景不确定性指数增加了23点达到62.6，表明企业对其前景的不确定性继续增加，并补充说，68%的企业认为环境不确定性增加。

达拉斯联储银行在其网站上指出，达拉斯联储银行每季度进行一次能源调查，以获取对位于或总部位于第十一区的石油和天然气公司能源活动的及时评估。

曹海斌 编译自 钻井地带 网站 

Where Will WTI Oil Price Be at End-2023?

145 oil and gas firm executives offer their view in the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey.$79.64 per barrel.

That was the average response from 145 oil and gas firm executives when asked what they expected the WTI price to be at the end of 2023 as part of the first quarter 2023 Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

The low forecast in the survey came to $50 per barrel, while the high forecast came in at $160 per barrel. The WTI price during the survey collection period, which spanned March 15-23, averaged $68.51 per barrel.

In the fourth quarter 2022 Dallas Fed Energy Survey, which was the first Dallas Fed Energy Survey to ask respondents about year-end 2023 prices, the average response executives from 150 oil and gas firms delivered when asked what they expected the WTI price to be at the end of this year was $83.63 per barrel. The low forecast in that survey came in at $65 per barrel, while the high forecast came in at $160 per barrel.

The previous three surveys throughout 2022 all asked respondents what they expected year-end 2022 prices to be.

In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on March 2, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the WTI spot price would average $77.10 per barrel in 2023 and $71.57 per barrel in 2024.

According to the March STEO, the EIA expects the WTI spot price to average $78.05 in the first quarter of 2023, $78 per barrel in the second quarter, $77 per barrel in the third quarter, $75.35 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $74 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $72.34 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, $70.69 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024, and $69.36 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024.

The next STEO is currently scheduled to be released on April 11.

In a report sent to Rigzone on April 4, analysts at Standard Chartered predicted that WTI would average $88 per barrel in 2023, $95 per barrel in 2024, and $106 per barrel in 2025.

The report showed that the analysts expected WTI to average $85 per barrel in the third quarter of 2023, $91 per barrel in the fourth quarter, $89 per barrel in the first quarter of next year, $91 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, and $95 per barrel in the third quarter of 2024.

At the time of writing, the price of WTI stood at $80.85 per barrel. The commodity registered its lowest close of 2023, so far, on March 17, at $66.74 per barrel, before rising to a close of over $80 per barrel on April 3. WTI’s highest 2023 close, so far, was seen on January 26, at $87.47 per barrel.

Stalled Growth

Growth in the oil and gas sector stalled in the first quarter of 2023, according to oil and gas executives responding to the latest Dallas Fed Energy Survey.

The business activity index, which is described as the survey’s broadest measure of conditions facing Eleventh District energy firms, was 2.1 in the first quarter, the survey revealed. That was “down sharply” from 30.3 in fourth quarter of 2022, the Dallas Fed Energy Survey noted.

“The near-zero reading indicates activity was largely unchanged from the prior quarter, a break from the more than two-year stretch of rising activity,” the survey stated.

The survey also outlined that, according to executives at exploration and production firms, oil and natural gas production increased at a slower pace compared with the prior quarter. The oil production index was said to have remained positive but declined to 10.5 in the first quarter from 25.8 in the fourth. The natural gas production index was revealed to have fallen to 7.4 from 29.4.

The survey noted that firms reported rising costs for a ninth consecutive quarter and that the company outlook index turned negative in the first quarter, falling 27 points to -14.1. The overall outlook uncertainty index increased 23 points to 62.6, pointing to firms’ continued heightened uncertainty regarding their outlooks, the survey said, adding that 68 percent of firms reported greater uncertainty.

The Dallas Fed conducts the Dallas Fed Energy Survey quarterly to obtain a timely assessment of energy activity among oil and gas firms located or headquartered in the Eleventh District, the Dallas Fed notes on its website.