中国石化新闻网讯 据钻机地带5月11日报道，美国能源信息署(EIA)在5月9日发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)中，下调了对2023年和2024年布伦特原油现货价格的平均预测。
根据最新的STEO，EIA目前预计布伦特原油现货价格今年平均为每桶78.65美元，明年为每桶74.47美元。EIA在4月份发布的上一份STEO中预测，2023年布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶85.01美元，2024年为每桶81.21美元。
最新的STEO显示，按季度计算，EIA预计今年第二季度布伦特现货价格平均为77.56美元/桶，2023年第三和第四季度为78美元/桶，2024年第一季度为77美元/桶，明年第二季度为75美元/桶，明年第三季度为74美元/桶，2024年第四季度为72美元/桶。
EIA在其5月份的STEO中指出，布伦特原油现货价格从4月份的平均每桶85美元下跌至5月4日的每桶73美元。在撰写本文时，布伦特原油目前的交易价格为每桶76.93美元。
EIA在其5月份的STEO中表示：“4月初，欧佩克及其合作伙伴国家宣布，到2023年底，原油日产量将减少120万桶，这导致原油价格上涨，因为人们预计石油供应将收紧。”
EIA补充称：“然而，对全球经济状况疲软、全球银行业风险感知以及持续通胀的持续考虑，盖过了油价最初上涨的影响，导致油价下跌。”
EIA继续表示：“尽管到2024年底，液体燃料的需求增长将面临下行风险，但我们预计，石油消费的季节性增长和欧佩克原油产量的下降将在未来几个月给原油价格带来一些上行压力。”
该组织在5月份的STEO中透露，预计2023年全球液体燃料消费量将增加160万桶/天，2024年将增加170万桶/天。EIA在《经济合作与发展报告》中指出，预计液体燃料需求增长最多的是亚洲非经合组织国家。
EIA在5月份的STEO中表示：“我们预计这种需求增长将使全球石油市场在2023年第三季度至2024年第一季度之间实现平衡，并将布伦特原油价格从目前的水平推高至每桶75美元至80美元之间。”
EIA补充称：“从2024年第二季度开始，我们预计全球石油库存将在预测期内持续增加，因为全球石油产量超过全球石油需求，这将给原油价格带来下行压力。”
EIA还表示：“我们预计，2024年全球石油库存将增加30万桶/天，预计2024年布伦特原油现货价格平均为74美元/桶，比上个月的STEO低7美元/桶。”
渣打银行和美国银行的预测
在5月9日发给钻井地带的另一份报告中，渣打银行透露，目前预计布伦特原油价格今年平均为91美元/桶，明年为98美元/桶，2025年为109美元/桶。
该报告强调，该公司预计今年第三季度布伦特原油价格平均为每桶88美元，2023年第四季度为每桶93美元，2024年第一季度为每桶92美元，2024年第二季度为每桶94美元，明年第三季度为每桶98美元。
渣打银行(Standard Chartered)分析师在报告中表示：“我们认为，相对于潜在的消息层面反馈和基本面数据，投机性波动已变得过度。”
“这是由于过度依赖类似的算法还是类似的分析师造成的，尚无定论；反正结果是产生了不必要的波动。”分析师们补充道。
“在我们看来，无论是从当前的石油基本面还是宏观环境来看，过去两周投机性做空的规模都难以证明是合理的。”分析师们接着表示。
在本周发给钻井地带的另一份报告中，美国银行全球研究(BofA Global Research)透露，它已下调了对今年布伦特原油价格的平均预期。
美国银行全球研究在报告中表示：“由于负面的宏观趋势将放大未来的需求疲软，我们将2023年布伦特原油平均价格预测下调至每桶80美元。”
该公司在报告中补充说：“即便如此，我们仍将2024年布伦特原油价格预测维持在每桶90美元，因为我们相信经合组织的需求最终会改善，而欧佩克+可能会继续积极主动地管理供应。”
寿琳玲 编译自 油价网
原文如下：
USA EIA Slashes 2023 and 2024 Brent Oil Price Forecasts
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut its Brent spot price average forecasts for 2023 and 2024 in its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released on May 9.
According to the latest STEO, the EIA now sees the Brent spot price averaging $78.65 per barrel this year and $74.47 per barrel next year. In its previous STEO, which was published in April, the EIA projected that the Brent spot price would average $85.01 per barrel in 2023 and $81.21 per barrel in 2024.
On a quarter by quarter basis, the EIA sees the Brent spot price averaging $77.56 per barrel in the second quarter of this year, $78 per barrel in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, $77 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $75 per barrel in the second quarter of next year, $74 per barrel in the third quarter of next year, and $72 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2024, the latest STEO showed.
In its May STEO, the EIA noted that the Brent crude oil spot price fell from an average of $85 per barrel in April to close at $73 per barrel on May 4. At the time of writing, the price of Brent is currently trading at $76.93 per barrel.
“At the beginning of April, OPEC and partner countries (OPEC+) announced a cut to crude oil production of 1.2 million barrels per day through the end of 2023, which increased crude oil prices on expectations of tightening oil supplies,” the EIA said in its May STEO.
“However, ongoing considerations about weakening global economic conditions, perceived risk around the global banking sector, and persistent inflation outweighed the initial increase in oil prices and have led to lower prices,” the EIA added.
“Although demand growth for liquid fuels faces downside risks through the end of 2024, we expect the seasonal rise in oil consumption and a drop in OPEC crude oil production to put some upward pressure on crude oil prices in the coming months,” the EIA continued.
The organization revealed in its May STEO that it is forecasting global liquid fuels consumption to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2023 and by 1.7 million barrels per day in 2024. Most expected liquid fuels demand growth is in non-OECD Asia, the EIA noted in the STEO.
“We expect this demand growth will bring the global oil market into balance between the third quarter of 2023 and 1Q24 and push the Brent price from current levels back to between $75 per barrel and $80 per barrel,” the EIA said in the May STEO.
“Beginning in 2Q24, we expect consistent global oil inventory builds over the rest of the forecast period as global oil production outpaces global oil demand, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices,” the EIA added.
“We forecast global oil inventories will grow by 0.3 million barrels per day in 2024, and we forecast the Brent crude oil spot price to average $74 per barrel in 2024, $7 per barrel lower than in last month’s STEO,” the EIA went on to state.
Standard Chartered, BofA
In a separate report sent to Rigzone on May 9, Standard Chartered revealed that it is currently projecting that the Brent price will average $91 per barrel this year, $98 per barrel next year, and $109 per barrel in 2025.
That report highlighted that the company sees the Brent price averaging $88 per barrel in the third quarter of this year, $93 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2023, $92 per barrel in the first quarter of 2024, $94 per barrel in the second quarter of 2024, and $98 per barrel in the third quarter of next year.
“We think speculative swings have become excessive, relative to underlying news flow and fundamental data,” analysts at Standard Chartered stated in the report.
“Whether this is caused by an over-reliance on similar algorithms, or on similar analysts is moot; the result is the generation of unnecessary volatility,” the analysts added.
“The scale of speculative shorting over the past two weeks is difficult to justify in terms of either current oil fundamentals or the macro environment, in our view,” the analysts went on to state.
In another report sent to Rigzone this week, BofA Global Research revealed that it had cut its average Brent forecast for this year.
“With negative macro trends poised to amplify demand weakness ahead, we cut our average Brent crude oil price forecast to $80 per barrel in 2023,” BofA Global Research stated in the report.
“Even then, we leave our 2024 Brent crude oil forecast at $90 per barrel because we believe OECD demand will eventually improve while OPEC+ will likely keep proactively and pre-emptively managing supply,” the company added in the report.
