经济逆风迫使国际能源署将其全球石油需求增长预测从上个月的预测每天下调了22万桶

国际能源署强调，不断加深的制造业滑坡是修订后的预测中的一个关键因素

尽管亚洲需求继续出乎意料地上升，但由于工业活动放缓，欧洲的需求市场正在苦苦挣扎

中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年7月13日报道，持续的经济逆风促使国际能源署今年首次下调了全球石油需求增长预测。

国际能源署周四发布的备受关注的《石油市场报告》显示，国际能源署继续强调，今年全球石油日需求将达到历史最高水平的1.021亿桶。

然而，今年全球石油日需求增长速度比6月份的预测下调了22万桶，这是国际能源署首次下调今年的全球石油需求增长预测。

国际能源署表示：“持续的宏观经济逆风，在制造业不断加深的低迷中表现得很明显，导致我们今年首次下调了全球石油需求增长预期。”

国际能源署指出，亚洲需求增长继续出乎意料，但在工业活动放缓的背景下，发达经济体(尤其是欧洲)的石油需求一直在萎缩。

国际能源署表示：“充满挑战的经济环境正给全球石油需求带来压力，尤其是过去12个月，许多发达国家和发展中国家大幅收紧了货币政策。”

今年到目前为止，全球石油供应已经足以满足需求。例如，6月份的供应量仅比去年10月欧佩克+最新一轮减产开始前的水平低7万桶/日。

但国际能源署补充称，随着沙特本月和下个月额外减产100万桶/日，全球石油供应可能大幅下降，并令市场吃紧。

国际能源署总结称：“从7月开始更大幅度的供应削减，表明石油市场可能很快就会出现新的波动。”

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

IEA Cuts Oil Demand Growth Forecast For First Time This Year

·     Economic headwinds have forced the IEA to cut its global oil demand growth forecast by 220,000 bpd from last month’s forecast.

·     The agency highlighted a deepening manufacturing slope as being a key factor in the revised forecast.

·     While Asian demand continues to surprise to the upside, demand in Europe is struggling amid a slowdown in industrial activity.

Persistent economic headwinds have prompted the International Energy Agency (IEA) to cut its global oil demand growth forecast for the first time this year.

The agency continues to see a record-high global oil demand in 2023, at 102.1 million barrels per day (bpd), its closely-watched Oil Market Report showed on Thursday.

However, the pace of growth in demand was lowered by 220,000 bpd from last month’s projection, the first downward revision to oil demand growth for this year from the IEA.

“Persistent macroeconomic headwinds, apparent in a deepening manufacturing slump, have led us to revise our 2023 growth estimate lower for the first time this year,” the agency said.

Asian demand growth continues to surprise to the upside, the IEA noted, but demand in developed economies, especially in Europe, has been languishing amid a slowdown in industrial activity.

“World oil demand is coming under pressure from the challenging economic environment, not least because of the dramatic tightening of monetary policy in many advanced and developing countries over the past twelve months,” the IEA said.

So far this year, global oil supply has been enough to meet demand. In June, for example, supply was just 70,000 bpd below the levels from last October before the first round of the latest OPEC+ cuts kicked in. 

But with Saudi Arabia’s additional 1 million bpd cut this month and next, supply could tumble and tighten the market, the agency added.

The “ongoing draws in oil on water and deeper supply cuts starting this month suggest the oil market may soon see renewed volatility,” the IEA concluded.