中国石化新闻网讯 据OE网站7月31日报道，高盛(Goldman Sachs)周日上调了今年全球石油需求预测，同时维持布伦特原油价格12个月预估在每桶93美元，因实际库存增加抵消了增长前景不那么悲观带来的需求提振。
高盛分析师估计，7月份全球石油需求攀升至1.028亿桶/日的历史新高，并预计强劲的需求将导致今年下半年出现180万桶/日的缺口，超过预期，2024年将出现60万桶/日的缺口。
分析师在一份报告中写道，衰退风险降低，以及石油输出国组织(OPEC)大力推高油价，支持了高盛对油价走高和波动性降低前景的看法。
油价周一徘徊在三个月高点附近，预计将录得一年多来最大单月涨幅，因市场预期沙特阿拉伯将把自愿减产延长至9月，并收紧全球供应。
高盛分析师表示，沙特的减产令缺口再度出现，并补充称，他们预计沙特每日额外减产100万桶将持续到9月，10月将减产一半。
这家华尔街银行将其石油需求预测上调了约55万桶/日，并预计2023年的供应量将增加约17.5万桶/日。
该行维持对2023年12月布伦特原油价格每桶86美元的预测，其预计明年第二季度油价将升至每桶93美元，因为供应短缺仍在继续。
该行表示，然而，过去一年欧佩克闲置产能的大幅增加、国际海上项目的恢复增长以及美国石油生产成本的下降限制了油价的上行空间。
到格林尼治标准时间3时53分，布伦特原油期货LCOc1交易价格为每桶84美元左右，美国西得克萨斯中质原油CLc1交易价格为每桶80美元左右。
郝芬 译自 OE
原文如下：
Goldman Upgrades Oil Demand Outlook as Market Tempers Growth Pessimism
Goldman Sachs on Sunday revised up its global oil demand forecast for the year while sticking to its 12-month Brent price projection of $93 per barrel as higher realized inventories offset the demand boost from a less pessimistic growth outlook.
Goldman analysts estimate global oil demand climbed to an all-time high of 102.8 million barrels per day (bpd) in July and see solid demand driving a larger-than-expected 1.8 million bpd deficit in the second half this year and a 0.6 million bpd deficit in 2024.
A reduced recession risk and a strong effort by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to push up prices support Goldman's view on higher oil prices and an outlook for less volatility, the analysts wrote in a note.
Oil prices hovered near three-month highs on Monday, set to post their biggest monthly gains in over a year on expectations that Saudi Arabia would extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten global supply.
Saudi supply cuts have brought back deficits, the Goldman analysts said, adding that they see the extra 1 million bpd Saudi cut to last through September and be halved from October.
The Wall Street bank upgraded its oil demand estimate by around 550,000 bpd and sees 2023 supply higher by around 175,000 bpd.
The bank maintained its $86 a barrel Brent forecast for December 2023, and it expects prices to rise to $93 per barrel in the second quarter next year as supply deficits continue.
"However, the significant rise in OPEC spare capacity over the past year, the return to growth in international offshore projects, and declining U.S. oil production costs limit the upside to prices," it said.
Brent futures LCOc1 were trading around $84 a barrel by 0353 GMT, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) U.S. crude CLc1 was around $80.
