中国石化新闻网讯 据今日石油网2023年8月16日报道，8月份的《全球供应报告》强调，对非欧佩克国家的液体供应的预测出现了有利的转变，表明今年预计将平均每天再增加140万桶。
圭亚那、巴西、美国、挪威、哈萨克斯坦等将成为今年全球液体供应增长的主要推动力。
今年1月，欧佩克表示，圭亚那目前的原油日产量预计将增加大约9万桶。这将使圭亚那今年的液体产量比埃克森美孚公司去年运营的项目的1.01亿桶产量高出3200万桶。圭亚那帕亚拉项目预计今年将获得第一批石油。
圭亚那丽莎-1项目和丽莎-2项目在今年启动，日产量分别为14万桶和22万桶。这两个项目目前的日总产量接近40万桶。
不确定性继续笼罩着今年全球原油市场的前景。美国页岩油产量的潜力和计划外维护活动的发生等因素可能会影响最终结果。
展望2024年，非欧佩克国家的液体供应预期保持一致，预计日增140万桶，与之前的评估保持稳定。预计未来一年，美国、加拿大、圭亚那、巴西、挪威和哈萨克斯坦将成为全球预计液体供应增加的主要推动力。这一增长主要归因于这些国家现有项目产量的持续增加。相反，预计墨西哥和阿塞拜疆在此期间的液体产量下降幅度最大。
今年欧佩克非天然气液体和非常规液体产量也有望增长。预测显示，今年日产量将增加4.6万桶，平均日产量将达到540万桶。展望2024年，这部分预计将再日增65万桶，达到日均550万桶。
李峻 译自 今日石油网
原文如下：
Another 1.4 million bpd of non-OPEC supply growth expected in 2024
Projections for non-OPEC liquids supply have taken a favourable turn, indicating an anticipated expansion of 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023, the August Global Supply Report highlights.
Guyana, Brazil, the United States, Norway, Kazakhstan will be the primary drivers of the liquids supply growth in 2023.
In January, OPEC said it expected Guyana to add about 90,000 barrels of crude per day to its current output. This would put Guyana’s 2023 output to 32 million barrels more than the 101 million barrels produced in 2022 by the ExxonMobil-operated projects. The Payara project is expected to achieve first oil this year.
The Liza 1 and 2 projects started the year with production at 140,000 b/d and 220,000 b/d respectively. They are now collectively producing close to 400,000 b/d.
Uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook for 2023. Factors such as the potential of US shale oil output and the occurrence of unplanned maintenance activities may influence the final outcome.
Looking ahead to 2024, the expectation of non-OPEC liquids supply remains consistent, with a projection of 1.4 mb/d growth, holding steady from previous assessments. For the coming year, the United States, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway, and Kazakhstan are expected to serve as the main drivers behind the projected increase in liquids supply. This growth is primarily attributed to the ongoing ramp-up of existing projects in these countries. Conversely, Mexico and Azerbaijan are anticipated to experience the largest declines in production during this period.
The OPEC non-gas liquids (NGLs) and non-conventional liquids segment is also poised for growth. Forecasts indicate an increase of 46 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in 2023, bringing the average to 5.4 million barrels per day. Looking further into 2024, this segment is expected to expand by an additional 65 tb/d, reaching an average of 5.5 million barrels per day.
