在油价连续七周上涨之后，油价本周连续三天下跌
路透社市场分析师约翰·肯普表示：自6月以来，经济困境和疲弱的欧洲经济很可能只导致了石油市场的适度紧缩
随着供应收紧，目前石油市场的关键问题是，能否实现真正的经济反弹，以提振市场人气，满足需求预期
中国石化新闻网讯 据油价网2023年8月20日报道，国际能源署(IEA)在其最新月度报告中称，尽管对经济的担忧挥之不去，但全球石油需求在6月份仍创下历史新高，并可能在8月份再创历史新高。
分析师和预测机构表示，欧佩克+联盟和沙特阿拉伯的减产，加上预期的需求持续强劲，将导致今年剩余时间的库存减少，从而支撑油价。
路透社市场分析师约翰·肯普认为，自6月以来，经济困境和疲弱的欧洲经济很可能只会导致石油市场出现温和收紧。
然而，全球石油需求和市场紧张程度可能被低估了。
IEA在其备受关注的8月石油市场报告(OMR)中称，6月全球石油日需求触及1.03亿桶，8月可能再创新高。IEA指出，今年全球石油日需求将增加220万桶。
欧洲的燃料需求在夏季也很强劲。费氏全球能源咨询公司（FGE）估计，6月份欧洲汽油需求同比增加3%，7月份同比增加5%，达到2011年以来的最高水平。
荷兰国际集团(ING)认为，美国的石油需求将基本持平。ING大宗商品策略主管沃伦·帕特森周四在一份报告中写道：“但这可能过于保守，因为今年大部分时间汽油隐含需求都高于去年水平。”
帕特森指出，今年到目前为止，美国的汽油隐含需求日均888万桶，同比增加1.4%。
分析师说，过去几周汽油需求有所回落，这可能是由于汽油价格上涨。
“建设性的基本面应该意味着未来几个月将更加强劲”，ING的帕特森如是表示。
渣打银行分析师认为，今年下半年大多数时间的大幅收紧将开始波及期货市场。渣打银行表示，第四季度油价可能触及每桶100美元的季度内高点。
拉皮丹能源公司总裁鲍勃·麦克纳利本周早些时候表示，石油市场正处于看涨走势，并将进入每桶90美元的区间。
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Tighter Oil Market Supports Prices
Following seven consecutive weeks of gains, oil prices dipped this week on three consecutive days .
Kemp: its woes and a weak European economy have likely translated into only modest oil market tightening since June.
With supply tightening, the key question for the oil market now is whetheritwould pull off a true economic rebound to prop up sentiment and meet demand expectations.
Despite lingering concerns about economy, global oil demand hit a record high in June and could be on track for another record in August, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its latest monthly report.
The cuts from OPEC+ and Saudi Arabia, coupled with expected continued strength in demand, are set to result in inventory draws for the rest of the year, supporting oil prices, analysts and forecasting agencies say.
However, demand and the market tightness may have been underestimated.
Global oil demand hit a record 103 million bpd in June, and August could see yet another peak, the IEA said in its closely-watched Oil Market Report (OMR) for August. World oil demand is set to grow by 2.2 million bpd this year, the agency noted.
Fuel demand in Europe is also strong in the summer.
Energy consultancy FGE estimates that European gasoline demand rose by 3% year over year in June and by 5% annually in July, to the highest level since 2011.
Bank ING assumes that U.S. oil demand will be largely flat year-on-year.
"But this may be too conservative, given that implied gasoline demand has been tracking above last year's levels for much of the year," Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, wrote in a note on Thursday.
Implied U.S. gasoline demand so far this year has averaged 8.88 million barrels per day (bpd), up by 1.4% year-on-year, Patterson noted.
The past few weeks have seen some pullback in demand, which could be due to the rising gasoline prices, analysts say.
"Constructive fundamentals should mean more strength in the months ahead," ING's Patterson said.
Standard Chartered analysts see the sharp tightening in most balances for the second half of 2023 starting to spill over into physical markets. Oil could hit an intra-quarter high of $100 per barrel in Q4, according to the bank.
The oil market is in a bullish move and heading well into the $90 per barrel range, Bob McNally, President at Rapidan Energy, said early this week.
