中国石化新闻网讯 据彭博社2023年8月24日报道，美国花旗集团(Citigroup Inc.)8月24日表示，由于石油输出国组织(欧佩克/OPEC)一些困境最严重的成员国出人意料地实现了原油供应增长，欧佩克核心成员国可能需要考虑进一步减产。
花旗集团估计，“脆弱5国”今年的原油日产量将增加大约90万桶，2024年新增的原油日产量至少与此持平。过去几年，这些国家一直在努力应对产量损失和中断。花旗集团说，新增原油产量足以满足未来全球石油需求的增加。
花旗集团大宗商品研究主管埃德·莫尔斯在接受媒体记者采访时表示：“突然之间，这‘脆弱5国’成为了经济增长的来源，并将在未来4年内成为经济增长的来源，甚至可能更长时间。”“我们突然意识到，欧佩克+核心国家需要解决这个问题。”
莫尔斯说，这5个国家都显示出原油供应复苏的积极迹象，而全球石油需求的增长将受到经济扩张放缓的制约。
因此，欧佩克实际领导者沙特阿拉伯及其波斯湾盟国可能面临进一步减产的压力，这些国家今年已经削减了产量以支撑原油价格。沙特阿拉伯已经将其石油日供应量限制在近900万桶的两年低点。
“这将是一个大问题，”莫尔斯说，“我认为他们将不得不削减产量，我不知道他们这么做有多容易。”
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下：
Citi Says OPEC May Need to Cut Again
OPEC’s core members may need to consider further production cuts as some of the group’s most troubled nations achieve unexpected supply growth, according to Citigroup Inc.
The “fragile five” which have struggled with output losses and disruptions for the past few years — will add roughly 900,000 barrels a day of production this year and at least the same in 2024, the bank estimates. That’s enough to satisfy coming growth in oil demand, it said.
“All of a sudden they are sources of growth, and they will be sources of growth for five, four years — or maybe even longer,” Ed Morse, Citigroup’s head of commodities research, said in an interview. “It strikes us that the core OPEC+ countries have a problem on their hands.”
The five nations are all showing positive signs of supply recovery, while growth in oil demand will be constrained by fading expansion , Morse said.
As a result, OPEC leader Saudi Arabia and its Persian Gulf allies — which have slashed production this year to shore up crude prices — may face pressure to cut output further, Morse said. The kingdom has already curbed supplies to a two-year low near 9 million barrels a day.
“It’ll be a big problem,” Morse said. “I think they’ll have to cut, and I don’t know how easy it is for them to do that.”
