中国石化新闻网讯 据美国钻井网站2023年8月29日报道,惠誉解决方案公司旗下的研究机构BMI在最近发给美国钻井网站的一份新报告中公布了到2027年的最新全球平均航空燃油价格预测。
新报告预计,今年全球平均航空燃油价格为每桶110美元,2024年为每桶105.3美元,2025年为每桶106.3美元,2026年和2027年均为每桶104.3美元。新报告强调,去年全球航空燃油平均价格为每桶141.3美元。
BMI分析师们在新报告中表示:“我们保持对航空燃油价格的稳定预测,因为我们预计,随着北半球夏季旅游季节的提振作用减弱,航空燃油价格将整体下跌,价差将在今年剩余时间内收窄,与我们之前的预测一致。”
BMI分析师们补充说:“与我们之前的观点一致,航空燃油与布伦特原油的价差已随着夏季航空旅行的峰值反弹,但随着需求减弱,这些涨幅可能会在未来几个月回落。”
“价格预测显示,全球航空燃油价格将在未来18个月里呈下降趋势,因为强劲的利润率继续下降,布伦特原油价格的明显上涨未能实现。我们预测2024年航空燃料的全球平均价格为每桶105.3美元,比我们预测的今年每桶110.0美元下降4.2%。”
BMI分析师们在报告中指出,他们预测的风险平衡“仍倾向于下行,因为我们预计未来几个月价格将进一步回落,炼油利润率将进一步下降”。
BMI分析师们在报告中警告称:“我们对航空燃油价格的中性展望面临的最直接风险,是目前全球柴油消费的疲软。”
“如果炼油商将更多的中间馏分油产量从柴油转向利润率更高的航空燃料,我们可能会看到航空燃料的利润率下降。新的产能增长可能会压倒市场,在未来几个季度进一步降低炼油利润率和航空燃油价格,这将超出我们的预期。”
“航空旅行需求的疲软也对我们的价格观点构成了另一个风险,因为持续走高的利率和高通胀可能会导致消费者削减可自由支配的支出。虽然我们预计增长不会大幅下降,但低于预期的增长可能会进一步侵蚀超出我们目前预测的利润率。”
在今年5月发给美国钻井网站的另一份报告中,BMI分析师预测,今年全球航空燃油平均价格将为每桶109.7美元,2024年为每桶105美元,2025年为每桶106美元,2026年和2027年均为每桶104美元。
BMI分析师们在报告中表示:“我们预计,今年剩余时间的航空燃油价格将从目前的每桶100美元的现货价格上涨至每桶110美元的年平均水平,但这仍比我们之前预测的每桶140美元低了22%。”
BMI分析师们在这份报告中还警告称,“鉴于我们预计,随着炼油厂减产,目前的价格趋势将在未来几个月逆转”,他们的预测面临的风险平衡倾向于下行。
在8月早些时候发布的最新短期能源展望(STEO)报告中,美国能源信息署(EIA)预计,今年布伦特原油现货价格平均为每桶82.62美元,2024年为每桶86.48美元。
在撰写本文时,布伦特原油的价格为每桶84.78美元。从6月27日收于每桶72.26美元,到8月9日收于每桶87.55美元,原油价格一直呈上升趋势。自那以来,油价曾数次跌至每桶84美元以下。
李峻 译自 油价网
原文如下:
BMI Reveals Latest Jet Fuel Price Forecast
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has revealed its latest global average jet fuel price forecasts out to 2027 in a new report, which was sent to Rigzone recently.
The report sees the global average jet fuel price coming in at $110 per barrel in 2023, $105.3 per barrel in 2024, $106.3 per barrel in 2025, and $104.3 per barrel in both 2026 and 2027. The 2022 global average jet fuel price was $141.3 per barrel, the report highlighted.
“We are holding our jet fuel price forecasts steady, as we expect spreads to narrow across the remainder of 2023 in line with our previous forecast, as the boost from the northern hemisphere summer travel season wanes, pulling jet fuel prices overall lower,” BMI analysts stated in the report.
“In line with our previous view, jet fuel spreads to Brent have rebounded in line with the peak in summer air travel, however these gains are likely to pare back in the coming months as demand wanes,” they added.
“Our price forecasts call for global jet fuel prices to trend lower over the coming 18 months as strong margins continue to retreat and appreciable gains in Brent prices fail to materialize. Our 2024 jet fuel global average price forecast is $105.3 per barrel, a 4.2 percent decline from our 2023 estimate of $110.0 per barrel,” the analysts went on to state.
In the report, the BMI analysts noted that the balance of risks to their forecast “remains tilted to the downside given that we expect prices to ease further and margins to track lower in the coming months”.
“The most immediate risk to our neutral outlook for jet fuel prices is the current weakness seen in diesel consumption globally,” the analysts warned in the report.
“Should refiners focus more of the middle distillate output away from diesel and into higher margin jet fuel we could see margins fall for jet fuel impacting our price forecast to the downside. New capacity gains could overwhelm markets, further reducing refining margins and jet fuel prices in the quarters ahead beyond our forecast,” they added.
“Weaker demand for air travel also pose another risk to our view for prices as persistently higher interest rates and elevated inflation could see consumers pare back on discretionary expenditures. While we don’t expect a sharp fall in growth, weaker than expected growth could further erode margins beyond our current forecast,” the analysts continued.
In a separate report sent to Rigzone back in May, BMI analysts projected that the global average jet fuel price would be $109.7 per barrel in 2023, $105 per barrel in 2024, $106 per barrel in 2025, and $104 per barrel in both 2026 and 2027.
“We forecast jet fuel prices to rise from current spot levels of $100 per barrel to a global annual average of $110 per barrel for 2023, but this still marks a substantial revision of 22 percent lower than our previous forecast for $140 per barrel,” the analysts stated in that report.
BMI analysts also warned in this report that the balance of risk to their forecast was tilted to the downside “given that we expect the current price trends to reverse in the coming months as refineries reduce output”.
The analysts also stated in that report that “the most immediate risk to our bullish outlook for jet fuel prices is the current weakness seen in diesel consumption globally”.
In its latest short term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that the Brent spot price would average $82.62 per barrel this year and $86.48 per barrel in 2024.
At the time of writing, the price of Brent crude oil is trading at $84.78 per barrel. The commodity had been on an upward trajectory from June 27, when it closed at $72.26 per barrel, to August 9, when it closed at $87.55 per barrel. Since then, prices have dipped under $84 per barrel on several occasions.