近期中国市场MEG价格或表现低迷

中国石化新闻网讯 据安迅思新闻新加坡3月6日消息，受需求持续低迷和供应充裕的双重影响，近期中国国内乙二醇（MEG）价格或将走软。

据安迅思数据显示，3月5日中国东部市场MEG现货库提价为7500元-7670元/吨，与2月28日的价格相比已经大幅下跌了425元/吨。

MEG下游最大的衍生物聚酯市场仍在恢复过程中，许多聚酯生产商拥有充裕的MEG合约货物供应，因此不愿意购买现货MEG。

此外，中国的交通运输在农历新年假期之后还没有完全恢复。

尽管2月份比1月份少了3天，但是受赢利可观的刺激，2月份中国国内MEG产量可能已经增长，二月份的实际数据将在未来几天公布。而大多数工厂预计将在3月份正常运转。

由于装置开工率水平提高，但是市场需求仍然低迷，因此中国东部主要港口的MEG库存不断增加。中国东部主要港口的MEG库存达到66.5万吨，比上周增加了7万吨以上。在春节假期之后，中国主要港口的MEG总库存增加了19万吨以上。

据一些市场参与者称，在截至3月9日的一周内，将有大约17万吨至18万吨的MEG进口货物将运抵中国市场。

许多货主希望出售现货货物，但买家已采取观望态度，预计价格将进一步下跌。

然而，一些市场参与者预计价格将很快触底，并在第二季度转向一种更为乐观的趋势，届时国内一些装置将进行停工检修。

张春晓 摘译自 安迅思新闻

原文如下：

China MEG may continue to soften in the near term on weak fundamentals

China domestic monoethylene glycol (MEG) prices are likely to soften in the near-term on continuing weak demand and ample supply including climbing inventories.

According to ICIS data MEG Ex-tank east China spot prices were at Chinese yuan 7,500-7,670/tonne on 5 March, which is a decline of CNY 425/tonnes from prices on 28 February.

The biggest derivatives polyesters were still in the way of recovering and many polyester producers were well-covered by contract cargoes, thus unwilling to purchase spot MEG.

In addition, transportation had not yet fully recovered in China after the Lunar New Year holidays which were spread on 15-21 February this year.

Domestic production may have risen in February on the considerable margins, even though there are three days less in February than January; while most of the plants are expected to run normally in March. The actual data for February will be released later.

As a result of higher operating rates and not so robust demand, a pile-up in inventories at major east China ports has taken place.Inventories in east China main ports reached to 665,000 tonnes, an increase of more than 70,000 tonnes compared with the previous week’s level.The overall inventories in main ports have risen by more than 190,000 tonnes after the Lunar New Year holidays.

According to some market players a total of about 170,000-180,000 tonnes of import cargos will be arriving in the week ending on 9 March.

Many cargo-holders wish to sell spot cargoes, but buyers have adopted a wait-and-see stance, expecting the prices to fall further.

However, some market participants expect prices to hit bottom soon. and turn to a more bullish trend in the second quarter when several turnarounds are planned within the domestic industry.