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| 2018-03-09 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据路透社3月8日伦敦报道，高盛集团(Goldman Sachs)在周三再次发布了其2018年全球石油需求增长预测，即每日185万桶(bpd)，尽管近期有迹象显示全球石油需求出现了轻微放缓，这是由于今年开局强劲，第二季度市场需求加速增长所致。 该银行分析师在一份报告中称:“1月份的石油数据显示全球需求增长强劲，与进入2018年的强健经济势头一致。” 高盛将近期油价下跌归因于季节性因素，称过去十年间的数据表明在今年第一季度可能碰到需求出现疲软，而历史上则是出现在第二季度。 尽管上周公布的一系列经济数据低于市场预期，并且贸易争端和关税会抑制石油需求，但其影响可能是逐步的，而且可能被美元走软所抵消。 高盛分析师称:“我们仍预计2018年宏观经济形势将继续支持石油需求，2018年需求增长预期仍将保持在1.85(百万桶/日)，远高于市场普遍预期。” 周四，受美国原油产量创纪录和库存不断上升的消息影响原油价格在前一天下跌后，原油价格在健康需求的支撑下稳定下来。 蔡小全 编译自 路透社 原文如下： Goldman Sachs says 2018 global oil demand still on track for growth Goldman Sachs on Wednesday re-issued its 2018 global oil demand growth forecast of 1.85 million barrels per day (bpd), despite recent signs of a slight slowdown, citing a strong start to the year and a pattern of second-quarter demand acceleration. "Oil data for January points to strong global demand growth, consistent with the robust economic momentum entering 2018," analysts at the bank said in a note. Goldman attributed the recent slide in oil prices to seasonality, saying data from the past decade suggested weakness in demand could now be witnessed during the first quarter of the year, whereas historically it occurred in the second quarter. While a slew of economic data releases last week came in below market expectations, and trade disputes and tariffs could dampen oil demand, the impact is likely to be gradual and could be offset by a weaker dollar, the bank said. "We continue to expect that the broad macro set-up for 2018 will remain supportive of oil demand and our 2018 demand growth forecast remains 1.85 (million bpd), well above consensus expectations," Goldman's analysts said. Oil prices steadied on Thursday, supported by healthy demand, after falling the previous day on news of record U.S. crude production and rising inventories. |
