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| 2018-05-09 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据华盛顿普氏能源资讯5月8日消息，美国能源信息管理局(US Energy Information Administration)预计，布伦特原油(Brent crude)今年剩余时间将保持在每桶70美元以上，到2019年底将降至65美元/桶，由于美国的运输和出口限制不断增加，WTI原油价格将在两年内平均下降5美元/桶。 EIA在5月的短期能源展望报告中表示，预计到2018年，布伦特原油的平均价格将达到每桶70.68美元，比上月的预期高出逾7美元，而WTI今年的平均价格为65.58美元，较上月上涨逾6美元。 EIA预计，到2019年，布伦特原油价格将跌至每桶65.98美元，而WTI明年将降至60.86美元/桶。 考虑到美国墨西哥湾沿岸地区的石油产量受到限制，EIA将其2018年平均产量预期从上月报告的3万桶提高至每日1072万桶，同时将其2019年的预测从上月的42万桶上调至每日1180万桶。 报告称:“由于二三地区的原油价格预计仍将远低于WTI Cushing价格，直到2019年中期，EIA预计该地区的原油产量不会像在没有运输限制的情况下那样急剧上升。” 然而，EIA预计，到2019年中期，美国石油和墨西哥湾沿岸原油管道的产能将达到峰值，这将最终导致布伦特/WTI原油价格的进一步下跌。 EIA预计，到2019年11月，美国原油产量将突破1200万桶，这将比2017年平均水平高出26.5万桶。 EIA估计，欧佩克今年的平均产量将达到32.26万桶，2019年将达到335万桶，与上月的报告持平。 胡晶晶摘译自普氏能源资讯 原文如下 The US Energy Information Administration expects Brent crude to stay above $70/b for the rest of the year and then decline to $65/b by the end of 2019, with WTI crude at an average $5/b discount both years because of increasing transportation and export constraints in the US, it said Tuesday. In its May Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA said it expects Brent to average $70.68/b in 2018, up more than $7 from last month's outlook, and WTI to average $65.58/b this year, up more than $6 from last month. EIA sees Brent falling to an average of $65.98/b in 2019 and WTI falling to $60.86/b next year. Given constraints getting Permian production to the US Gulf Coast, EIA raised its outlook for average 2018 production by a marginal 30,000 b/d from last month's report to 10.72 million b/d, while it boosted its 2019 forecast by 420,000 b/d from last month to 11.86 million b/d. "Because crude oil prices in the Permian region are expected to remain significantly lower than WTI Cushing prices until mid-2019, EIA does not expect crude oil production in that region to rise as sharply as it would under a scenario with no transportation constraints," the report said. However, EIA expects Permian-to-Gulf Coast crude pipeline capacity to catch up by mid-2019, which will eventually shrink the Brent/WTI spread. EIA expects US crude output to top 12 million b/d by November 2019, which would mark a staggering 2.65 million b/d increase from the 2017 average. EIA estimates OPEC will produce an average of 32.26 million b/d this year and 32.35 million b/d in 2019, both steady from last month's report. |
