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| 2018-05-29 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据迪拜普氏能源资讯5月28日消息，欧佩克的一名高级官员周日对标普全球石油公司(S&P Global Platts)表示，经合组织(OECD)的原油库存已降至5年平均水平以下，这是欧佩克(OPEC，欧佩克)削减产量的关键措施。 该消息人士称，商业石油库存比5年平均水平低2,000万桶。OPEC主要产油国沙特阿拉伯和主要非OPEC产油国俄罗斯周五表示，将在今年下半年开始增产。 石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称欧佩克)已将其5年平均目标的库存降至接近5年平均目标的水平，这比预期要快得多，原因是委内瑞拉供应中断，以及对180万桶/日减产协议的严格遵守。该组织的联合部长级监测委员会周五表示，4月份的合规性为152%。 截至3月底，欧佩克的库存数据远低于欧佩克最新估计的28.29亿桶。这仅仅是欧佩克目标5年平均水平的900万桶。 在俄罗斯领导下的欧佩克和10个非欧佩克产油国正面临180万桶的减产协议，该协议将在2018年底前达成，以支持油价，并减少全球石油库存过剩。 石油生产商一直在寻找一种新的方法来衡量石油市场的稳定性，而不是目前对平均库存水平的固定。俄罗斯能源部长亚历山大•诺瓦克(Alexander Novak)周五表示，欧佩克倾向于转向关注库存消耗的天数，而不是储存的桶数，并可能将观察期从5年延长至10年。 Platts对4月OPEC原油产量的预估跌至一年低点3200万桶，主要是由于委内瑞拉持续的产出恶化。从3月起，这一数字下降了14万桶，低于欧佩克的名义上限约为3273万桶/日，在其减产协议下，每一个国家的配额都被加起来。 该集团将于6月22日在维也纳召开会议，讨论该协议。由于美国决定重新实施制裁，外界猜测它可能不得不增加产量，以弥补任何伊朗桶的关闭。委内瑞拉是一个主要的欧佩克成员国，其产量已经在下降，同时也面临着美国进一步制裁的前景。 不过，法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)分析师上周五在研究报告中表示，他们预计今年剩余时间内将继续减产。 该报告称:“沙特阿拉伯强调需要更多资本支出来满足未来的石油需求，并取代老化油田的自然衰退，因此可能会以更高的价格刺激投资，以某种形式或另一种形式的供应削减，可能会延长到2019年。” 胡晶晶摘译自普氏能源资讯 原文如下 OECD crude oil inventories have fallen below the five-year average -- OPEC's key measure for its production cut agreement -- for the first time since the producer group began cutting back output, a senior OPEC source told S&P Global Platts Sunday. Commercial oil inventories were 20 million barrels below the five-year average, the source said, as officials from OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia and key non-OPEC producer, Russia indicated Friday they would begin increasing output in the second half of the year. The OPEC alliance has lowered stocks close to its five-year average goal much quicker than expected due to supply outages in Venezuela and strong compliance to the 1.8 million b/d output cut deal. The group's Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee said Friday compliance was 152% for April. The inventory figure is significantly lower than OPEC's most recent estimate of OECD stocks at 2.829 billion barrels as of the end of March. That was just 9 million barrels above the five-year average that OPEC is targeting. OPEC and 10 non-OPEC producers, led by Russia, are in the midst of a 1.8 million b/d supply cut deal that runs through the end of 2018 to support prices and reduce the global overhang of oil in storage. The producers have been searching for a new way to measure oil market stability, beyond its current fixation on average stocks levels. Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Friday OPEC is leaning towards switching to looking at the number of days of stock consumption, rather than the number of barrels stored, and could also extend the observation period from five to 10 years. Platts' own estimate of OPEC crude production for April slid to a one-year low of 32 million b/d, largely due to Venezuela's continued output deterioration. That is down 140,000 b/d from March, and around 730,000 b/d below OPEC's notional ceiling of about 32.73 million b/d, when every country's quota under its production cut agreement is added up. With their inventory goals achieved, the group will meet June 22 in Vienna to discuss the deal, amid speculation that it may have to increase output to make up for any Iranian barrels shut-in due to the US' decision to re-impose sanctions. Venezuela, a major OPEC member whose production is already in decline, also faces the prospect of additional US sanctions. However, analysts at BNP Paribas said in research note Friday they expected the production cuts to be maintained for the rest of the year. "With Saudi Arabia stressing the need for more capex to meet future oil demand and replace the natural decline from aging fields, and thus presumably a higher price to incentivize investment, supply cuts, in one form or another, may be extended to 2019," the note said.
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