高盛集团认为石油前景依然看涨

中国石化新闻网讯 据美国彭博新闻社5月28日新加坡报道，据高盛集团分析师所说，石油前景依然看涨。

高盛集团包括达米安·库瓦林在内的分析师在一份报告中指出，沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯日前提出的在经过旨在消除全球供过于求的一年多时间的减产以后恢复产量的计划标志着目前供应紧张，而不是悲观的发展。高盛集团认为，即使这些国家把每天的石油产量增加100万桶，这只会抵消非自愿的产量下降。

自去年初以来，高盛集团一直是一家石油看涨的银行。高盛集团表示，不断增长的需求以及欧佩克及其盟友的减产将有助于使原油从一代人的最严重崩溃中复苏。如今，虽然原油价格在触及2014年看到的水平以后有所回落，但高盛集团仍坚持其乐观的立场，认为油价目前的下跌是暂时的。

高盛集团分析师在5月25日的报告中写道：“当前的市场不足水平、需求背景的强劲程度以及不断上升的供应中断水平都为库存进一步下降奠定了基础。”

高盛集团认为，石油输出国组织（欧佩克）的提高产量的建议将要求在2019年额外增加产量，这将进一步减少明年已经有限的备用产能。

作为全球一半以上石油基准的布伦特原油价格在周一的交易中下跌了1.5%，至每桶75.30美元。5月早些时候，布伦特原油期货价格自2014年11月以来首次升至每桶80美元以上。5月22日，美国西德克萨斯州中质原油期货价格在纽约商交所下跌了1.8%，至每桶66.67美元，盘中曾一度攀升至每桶72.83美元。

李峻 编译自 美国彭博新闻社

原文如下：

Goldman stays oil bull, undaunted by Saudi-Russia crude plan

The outlook for oil is still bullish, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

A plan by Saudi Arabia and Russia to revive production after over a year of curbs to clear a global glut signals supplies are currently tight, and isn’t a bearish development, analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in a report. Even if the nations boost output by 1 MMbpd, that would only offset involuntary production declines, according to the bank.

Goldman has been an oil bull since early last year, saying growing demand and output reductions by OPEC and its allies will help revive crude from the worst crash in a generation. Now, as prices retreat after surging to levels last seen in 2014, the bank’s sticking to its optimistic stance and sees the current decline as temporary.

“The current level of the market deficit, the robustness of the demand backdrop, and the rising levels of disruptions all set the stage for inventories to fall further,” the analysts wrote in the May 25 report. The proposal for the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to lift output will require additional increases in production in 2019, which will further reduce already limited spare capacity next year, according to the bank.

Brent crude, the benchmark for more than half the world’s oil, slid 1.5% to $75.30/bbl at 11:21 a.m. in London. Futures in London had risen above $80/bbl earlier this month for the first time since November 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was down 1.8% at $66.67/bbl in New York, after climbing to as high as $72.83 on May 22.