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| 2018-06-13 来源： 中国石化新闻网 |
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石化新闻 |
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中国石化新闻网讯 据伦敦普氏能源资讯6月12日消息，欧佩克分析师周二预测，2018年下半年对石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称:欧佩克)原油的需求将比该组织5月份的日产量水平高出147万桶。 在其备受关注的月度石油市场报告中，欧佩克的分析部门将所谓的对欧佩克原油的所谓“呼吁”定为2018年下半年的3334万桶/日。 普氏调查:欧佩克可能将原油日产量降至13个月低点3190万桶/日 与此同时，该组织用来跟踪产量的独立二次来源估计，欧佩克5月份的日产量为3187万桶。 但石油输出国组织(OPEC，简称:欧佩克)表示，市场前景存在“明显的不确定性”，全球经济活动在第一季度放缓，预计货币政策将收紧，贸易战可能升级。因此，它指出，外界对欧佩克原油需求的一些估计比最乐观的预测低了170万桶/日。 " 2H18的前景值得密切关注影响全球石油需求和非OPEC供应的因素，这些因素将影响石油市场未来的前景，" OPEC在报告中称。 欧佩克将于6月22日在维也纳举行会议，评估其与俄罗斯为首的10个非欧佩克成员国达成的每日180万桶减产协议的未来。 欧盟的5月产出水平为870万桶/日，低于其名义上限约为3274万桶/日，当每个国家在减产协议下的配额都被加起来。这可能会给欧佩克一些喘息空间，以提振产量，同时仍整体上遵守减产承诺，不过这可能引发欧佩克内部激烈的市场份额争夺战。 胡晶晶摘译自普氏能源资讯 原文如下 Demand for OPEC crude in the second half of 2018 will exceed the bloc's May production level by 1.47 million b/d, its analysts forecast Tuesday, as ministers prepare to meet in Vienna next week to debate an output increase favored by some members. In its closely watched monthly oil market report, OPEC's analytics arm pegged the so-called call on OPEC crude for the second half of 2018 at 33.34 million b/d. Platts survey: OPEC May crude oil output slides to 13-month low of 31.90 mil b/d Meanwhile, independent secondary sources used by the organization to track production estimated OPEC's May output at 31.87 million b/d. But OPEC said there was "pronounced uncertainty" in the market's outlook, with global economic activity slowing in the first quarter, expected monetary tightening and the risk of escalating trade wars. As such, it noted that some outside estimates of the call on OPEC crude are as much as 1.7 million b/d lower than the most bullish forecasts. "This outlook for 2H18 warrants close monitoring of the factors impacting both world oil demand and non-OPEC supply that will shape the outlook of the oil market going forward," OPEC said in its report. OPEC meets June 22 in Vienna to assess the future of its 1.8 million b/d supply cut agreement with 10 non-OPEC partners, led by Russia. The bloc's May output level is 870,000 b/d below its notional ceiling of about 32.74 million b/d, when every country's quota under the production cut deal is added up. That could give OPEC some breathing room to boost output while still remaining collectively compliant with its cut commitment, though this would likely spark a bitter intra-OPEC market share battle.
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