BP: 高油价开始削弱全球需求增长

中国石化新闻网讯 据伦敦普氏能源资讯6月13日消息，英国石油公司(BP)周三表示，由于油价上涨，今年全球石油需求已开始出现疲软迹象。

英国石油公司(BP)在最新的年度统计报告中称，去年全球石油需求增长了170万桶/日，较2016年增长1.8%，使过去五年的需求保持在2006-7年上一次大宗商品“超级周期”(super-cycle)高峰以来的最高水平。

但鉴于布伦特原油的价格在每桶76美元左右，自2017年年中以来，原油价格已上涨近75%，尽管全球经济基本面强劲，但公路燃料的需求仍受到抑制。

随着北海原油产量的不断发展，它在日益全球化的市场中的角色已开始发生转变，对已过时的布伦特原油及其作为全球石油基准的地位产生了影响。在这份报告中，标普全球普拉特公司(S&P Global Platts)深入研究了影响北海和欧洲西北部原油市场的动态，以及布伦特原油的持续发展。

英国石油首席经济学家斯宾塞•戴尔(Spencer Dale)在报告中表示:“今年的数据已经显示，价格效应正在减弱，汽油需求增长放缓，柴油需求也在回升，而柴油需求更符合工业活动。”

戴尔表示，2017年的石油需求继续受到石油消费者从低油价“横财”中获益的推动，欧洲和美国的需求分别增长了30万桶/日和20万桶/日。

国际能源署(iea)上月将2018年石油需求增长预期下调10万桶，至每日140万桶，理由是由于上月油价升至每桶80美元，预计全球经济将放缓。

胡晶晶摘译自普氏能源资讯

原文如下

Global oil demand has already started to show signs of weakening this year in response to higher oil prices, following another year of robust demand growth above the 10-year average, BP said Wednesday.

Global oil demand grew 1.7 million b/d last year, up 1.8% from 2016, keeping demand over the last five years at its highest since the peak of the last commodities "super-cycle" of 2006-7, BP said in it's latest annual Statistical Review.

But with Brent trading around $76/b, crude oil prices have risen by nearly 75% since mid-2017, curbing demand for road fuels despite an underlying robust global economy.

As crude production in the North Sea continues to evolve, its role in an increasingly globalized market has started to shift, having an impact on Dated Brent and its position as a global oil benchmark. In this report, S&P Global Platts delves into the dynamics affecting the North Sea and Northwest Europe crude markets and the continuing evolution of Dated Brent.

"Already this year data you can see the price effect is waning, with gasoline demand growth slowed and diesel demand, which is more aligned with industrial activity, picking up," BP's chief economist Spencer Dale told reporter while presenting the review.

Oil demand in 2017 continued to be driven by oil consumers benefitting from the "windfall" of low prices, with both Europe and the US showing demand growth of 300,000 b/d and 200,000 b/d respectively, Dale said.

The International Energy Agency last month trimmed its 2018 oil demand growth forecast by 100,000 b/d to 1.4 million b/d, citing an expected slowdown in the global economy due to higher oil prices which hit $80/b last month.