|2018-06-19 来源： 中国石化新闻网|
OPEC would need to boost its crude oil production by more than 1 million b/d in order to balance the global market over the coming 18 months, according to an analysis of market forecasts.
As OPEC and its key oil producer allies prepare to meet in Vienna this week, the producers club is faced with a tough decision to offset the impact of US sanctions on Iran?s oil and further declines in Venezuelan output by raising its production.
Assuming a 500,000 b/d OPEC production hike from July and a second 500,000 b/d increase from October, global oil stocks could still see draws averaging almost 400,000 b/d to the end of 2019, analysis based on the latest projections by the International Energy Agency shows.
The IEA on Wednesday said it is expecting a gradual slide in Venezuelan output from current levels of 1.36 million b/d to 800,000 b/d by the end of 2019. It also sees US sanctions on Iran, due to begin in November, causing the loss of 900,000 b/d of Iranian crude output next year.
Even on its own estimates, OPEC expects global demand to average 2 million b/d higher in the second half of 2018 than in first six months of the year. As a result, OPEC's figures suggest the market needs more than 33 million b/d of its crude to balance the market in H2, compared to current levels of 31.7 million b/d.
The figures suggest OPEC may need to consider making a larger rather than a more modest upward adjustment to production when it meets with Russia, and other key non-OPEC producers on June 22.