欧佩克面临着平衡石油市场的艰难斗争

欧佩克面临着平衡石油市场的艰难斗争

中国石化新闻网讯 据伦敦普氏能源资讯6月18日消息，根据市场预测分析，欧佩克需要将原油日产量提高逾100万桶，以平衡未来18个月的全球市场。

在欧佩克及其主要产油国盟友准备本周在维也纳会晤之际，该产油国俱乐部正面临一个艰难的决定，以抵消美国制裁对伊朗的影响。通过提高产量，委内瑞拉的石油产量进一步下降。

国际能源署(iea)的最新预测显示，如果欧佩克(OPEC)从7月份开始增产50万桶，10月份再增产50万桶，到2019年底，全球石油库存仍将平均每日增产近40万桶。

国际能源机构周三表示，预计到2019年底，委内瑞拉的日产量将从目前的136万桶逐渐下滑至80万桶。它还认为美国对伊朗的制裁将于11月开始，导致伊朗明年的原油产量减少90万桶。

即便根据欧佩克自己的估计，该组织预计，2018年下半年全球石油需求平均将比今年上半年增加200万桶/日。因此，欧佩克的数据显示，与目前的每日3,170万桶相比，市场需要每日逾3,300万桶的原油来平衡H2市场。

这些数据表明，欧佩克可能需要考虑在6月22日与俄罗斯和其他非欧佩克关键产油国举行会议时，对产量进行更大规模而非更适度的向上调整。

胡晶晶摘译自普氏能源资讯

原文如下

OPEC would need to boost its crude oil production by more than 1 million b/d in order to balance the global market over the coming 18 months, according to an analysis of market forecasts.

As OPEC and its key oil producer allies prepare to meet in Vienna this week, the producers club is faced with a tough decision to offset the impact of US sanctions on Iran?s oil and further declines in Venezuelan output by raising its production.

Assuming a 500,000 b/d OPEC production hike from July and a second 500,000 b/d increase from October, global oil stocks could still see draws averaging almost 400,000 b/d to the end of 2019, analysis based on the latest projections by the International Energy Agency shows.

The IEA on Wednesday said it is expecting a gradual slide in Venezuelan output from current levels of 1.36 million b/d to 800,000 b/d by the end of 2019. It also sees US sanctions on Iran, due to begin in November, causing the loss of 900,000 b/d of Iranian crude output next year.

Even on its own estimates, OPEC expects global demand to average 2 million b/d higher in the second half of 2018 than in first six months of the year. As a result, OPEC's figures suggest the market needs more than 33 million b/d of its crude to balance the market in H2, compared to current levels of 31.7 million b/d.

The figures suggest OPEC may need to consider making a larger rather than a more modest upward adjustment to production when it meets with Russia, and other key non-OPEC producers on June 22.