美3大页岩远景区将提供北美55%天然气

美国3大页岩远景区2030年前将提供北美55%天然气

中国石化新闻网讯 据Rigzone网站6月18日休斯敦报道，美国3大页岩远景区二叠纪、马塞勒斯和尤蒂卡页岩远景区2030年前将向北美天然气市场提供55%的天然气。

这是全球最大战略咨询公司麦肯锡能源视角公司 （MEI）在其最新报告《北美天然气展望2030》中的预测。

在预期的相关天然气增长中，大约60%的天然气预计将来自二叠纪页岩远景区。目前，马塞勒斯和尤蒂卡两大页岩远景区的天然气产量占到加拿大和美国天然气总供应量的27%，预计到2030年这个比例将增长到40%。

MEI的高级分析师Yasmine Zhu在一份声明中表示：“技术的不断进步维持了北美的天然气产量。钻井和完井技术的改进导致了采收率和效率的提高，而水获得和处理方面的创新将允许运营商意识到哪里可以节省更多的成本。我们预计，进一步的技术突破将继续推动页岩气生产并降低成本，尤其是在未来两到五年内，在像海内斯维尔那样的边缘远景区。”

这些开发大大降低了盈亏平衡的成本，而MEI估计北美能够生产足以满足未来超过25年的每百万英国热量单位低于2.8美元价格的天然气。如果不断回升的油价推动钻探的繁荣，那么不断增加的油田服务成本可能会影响保本价格。

李峻 编译自 RZNews.com

原文如下：

Report: Permian, Marcellus & Utica to Supply 55% of N. American Gas by 2030

The Permian, Marcellus and Utica shale plays will supply 55 percent of the North American gas market by 2030.

That’s the forecast of McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI) in their latest report “North America Gas Outlook to 2030.”

Of the anticipated associated gas growth, about 60 percent is expected to come from the Permian. Currently, the Marcellus and Utica account for 27 percent of total supply in Canada and the U.S. That percentage is expected to grow to 40 percent by 2030.

“Continued improvements in technology have sustained North American gas production. Improved drilling and completions technology have led to enhanced recovery rates and efficiency, while innovations in water procurement and disposal are allowing operators to realize where additional savings can be made,” Yasmine Zhu, senior analyst at MEI said in a statement. “We anticipate that further technical breakthroughs will continue to boost shale gas production and drive down costs, particularly over the next two- to-five years in marginal plays like the Haynesville.”

These developments have substantially lowered breakeven costs, and MEI estimates that North America can produce enough gas to meet more than 25 years of demand below $2.8/mmbtu. If recovering oil prices drive a boom in drilling, increasing oilfield service costs could influence the breakeven price.