2019年全球石油需求增速将放缓

中国石化新闻网讯 据安迅思新闻伦敦7月11日消息，欧佩克周三表示，由于经济增速预测下调和对政治不确定性可能开始影响消费的担忧，2019年全球石油需求增速将放缓。

2019年全球GDP预计增长3.6%，而2018年的预期为3.8%，在经济增速预测下调的情况下，预计2019年全球石油需求将增加145万桶/日，低于2018年预计165万桶/日的增幅。

2019年全球石油需求增速放缓主要归因于亚太地区的原油替代行动、欧洲需求增速放缓以及中国消费下降。

欧佩克表示，2019年非欧佩克石油供应预计增加210万桶/日，尽管预计美国页岩油产量将放缓。

欧佩克表示，石油化工和汽车行业的消费预计也将推动明年的石油需求，尽管地缘政治紧张局势可能开始影响市场。如果地缘政治恶化，可能会对全球石油行业造成负面影响。

欧佩克在月度石油报告中表示：“如果贸易紧张局势进一步加剧，并考虑到其他不确定因素，可能会拖累企业和消费者情绪。这可能会开始对投资、资本流动和消费者支出产生负面影响，进而对全球石油市场产生负面影响。”

曹海斌 摘译自 安迅思新闻

原文如下：

Global crude demand growth to slip in 2019 – OPEC

Initial projections point to global crude oil demand growth slipping in 2019 compared to this year, on the back of weaker economic forecasts and fears that political uncertainty may start to weigh on consumption, oil cartel OPEC said on Wednesday.

Global oil demand is expected to grow by an average of 1.45m bbl/day in 2019 compared to a projected 1.65m bbl/day this year, on the back of expectations of 3.6% global GDP growth compared to an expected 3.8% in 2018.

Crude oil substitution drives in Asia Pacific, slower European demand growth, and lower Chinese consumption are all expected to weigh on forecasts for 2019.

Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 2.1m bbl/day during next year, despite an anticipated slowdown in the pace of US shale-derived oil output, the cartel said.

Petrochemicals and automotive sector consumption are also expected to drive demand next year, although simmering geopolitical tensions may start to impact market sentiment if they continue, which could lead to a negative impact on the global oil sector, according to OPEC.

“If trade tensions rise further, and given other uncertainties, it could weigh on business and consumer sentiment,” OPEC said in its monthly oil report."This may then start to negatively impact investment, capital flows and consumer spending, with a subsequent negative effect on the global oil market,” it added.